## Chart of the Week: Bye Bye Baby—How Crises Affect Fertility Rates

_IMF Blog, November 13, 2018_

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**Canonical URL:** [Chart of the Week: Bye Bye Baby—How Crises Affect Fertility Rates](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2018/11/13/chart-of-the-week-bye-bye-baby-how-crises-affect-fertility-rates)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: The Editors
- Published: November 13, 2018

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### Key findings on fertility trends
- In the decade before the global financial crisis, the fertility rate rose in several advanced economies; it declined afterward.
- United States: fertility rate fell from a peak of 2.12 in 2007 to 1.8 in 2016.
- European examples (countries that suffered a double-dip recession): fertility rate decreased from 1.5 to about 1.3 over the same time period.

### Evidence and channels linking crises to fertility
- Evidence from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries shows that employment losses were the most important channel through which the crisis affected fertility rates.
- Other studies identify additional factors influencing family-size decisions:
  - higher women’s participation in the workforce,
  - a desire for smaller families,
  - cuts to welfare systems.

### Macroeconomic implications
- Persistently low birth rates over the past decade will slow the growth rate of the labor force of the future in these countries.
- Slower labor force growth will weaken potential output growth.
- If immigration were to decline, fewer babies will exacerbate the already aging and shrinking populations of many countries.

### Policy recommendations for advanced economies
- Policymakers will need to tackle the trend and find ways to encourage women to have children. Examples include:
  - increasing access to affordable and high-quality childcare,
  - implementing family-friendly labor laws,
  - adopting tax policies that do not penalize secondary earners.

*The Editors — November 13, 2018*

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## References

- [decade ago](https://blogs.imf.org/2018/09/05/ten-years-after-lehman-lessons-learned-and-challenges-ahead/)
- [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/09/24/world-economic-outlook-october-2018)
- [https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/eng-september-28-weoch2.png](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/eng-september-28-weoch2.png)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2018/11/13/chart-of-the-week-bye-bye-baby-how-crises-affect-fertility-rates_