## Global Carbon Emissions Are on the Rise Again

_IMF Blog, December 5, 2019_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Christian Bogmans, Akito Matsumoto, Andrea Pescatori
- Published: December 5, 2019

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### Summary of recent trends
- After good progress in the beginning of the decade, global carbon emissions have started to pick up again.
- Emissions increased by 1 percent in 2017 and another 2 percent in 2018.
- This recent trend sets the world on a dangerous path: to slow the pace of climate change, carbon emissions need to be reduced.

### Drivers and decomposition of emissions growth
- Total carbon emissions growth can be decomposed as the sum of:
  - growth in carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of energy),
  - energy intensity (energy use per unit of GDP),
  - GDP per capita, and
  - population.
- Declines in energy intensity and carbon intensity have consistently helped reduce the growth of carbon emissions over the past 5 years.
- In 2018, the contribution of energy intensity to that reduction was lower, possibly because of a cyclical pickup in global industrial production.
- These weaker contributions could not offset the increase in carbon emissions stemming from population and, especially, global per capita income growth—which picked up in 2017 and 2018.
- The decline in carbon intensity in 2018 was larger than in previous years, as wind, solar, and natural gas continued to slowly replace coal in major emitters’ power sectors.

### Regional patterns
- China has been a key driver of emission growth since the turn of the century, but its impact has diminished in recent years as:
  - investments in renewable energy have increased, and
  - economic growth has become more rooted in the service sector rather than manufacturing.
- India and other emerging markets are partially filling the gap left by China's diminishing impact.
- In 2018, emissions decreased in all Group of Seven economies besides the United States, whose emissions increased because of a resurgence of industrial production and, possibly, bad weather.

### Policy recommendations
- Policymakers should continue to adopt policies aimed at curbing the appetite for coal and other polluting fossil fuels.
- Increasing the price of carbon emissions would accelerate the ongoing energy transition toward low-carbon energy sources.
- Subsidies for research and development would improve energy efficiency.

### Key statistics
- Emissions growth: "1 percent in 2017" and "2 percent in 2018".
- Timeframe referenced for intensity trends: "the past 5 years".
- Years highlighted for per capita income pickup: "2017 and 2018".
- Regional group referenced: "Group of Seven" and specific country: "United States".
- Major economies noted: "China" and "India".

*Source: Christian Bogmans, Akito Matsumoto, Andrea Pescatori — December 5, 2019*

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## References

- [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/10/01/world-economic-outlook-october-2019)
- [https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/eng-nov-19-cotw-for-blog-5.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/eng-nov-19-cotw-for-blog-5.jpg)
- [increasing the price of carbon emissions](https://blogs.imf.org/2019/10/10/fiscal-policies-to-curb-climate-change/)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2019/12/05/global-carbon-emissions-are-on-the-rise-again_