## Global Uncertainty Related to Coronavirus at Record High

_IMF Blog, April 4, 2020_

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**Canonical URL:** [Global Uncertainty Related to Coronavirus at Record High](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2020/04/04/global-uncertainty-related-to-coronavirus-at-record-high)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, Davide Furceri
- Published: April 4, 2020

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### Overview and measurement
- New measure: World Pandemic Uncertainty Index (WPUI) — a sub-index of the World Uncertainty Index for 143 countries starting in 1996.
- Construction method: tally the number of times “uncertainty” is mentioned near a word related to pandemics or epidemics in the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) country reports; scale raw counts by the total number of words in each report to make the WPUI comparable across countries.

### Key findings
- As of March 31, uncertainty related to the coronavirus is unprecedented.
- The level of uncertainty related to the coronavirus is three times the size of the uncertainty during the 2002–03 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic.
- The level of uncertainty related to the coronavirus is about 20 times the size during the Ebola outbreak.
- Uncertainty around the current pandemic increased first in China and is now visible in many countries worldwide.
- High levels of uncertainty related to the coronavirus have been recorded in several economies with a significant number of cases: France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States.
- Uncertainty around disease outbreaks is highest in advanced and emerging market economies and, while rising, it remains at low levels in low-income economies.
- High uncertainty historically coincides with periods of lower growth and tighter financial conditions; the current level is already associated with visible economic impacts in the countries most affected by the outbreak.

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Increased coordinated action internationally will be key to boosting confidence and providing stability to the global economy as the virus spreads.

*IMF Blog — Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, Davide Furceri; April 4, 2020*

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## References

- [https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/update0402-eng-march-19-pandemic.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/update0402-eng-march-19-pandemic.jpg)
- [financial conditions](https://blogs.imf.org/2020/03/11/monetary-and-financial-stability-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak/)
- [the economic impact](https://blogs.imf.org/2020/03/09/limiting-the-economic-fallout-of-the-coronavirus-with-large-targeted-policies/)
- [increased coordinated action](https://blogs.imf.org/2020/03/16/policy-action-for-a-healthy-global-economy/)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2020/04/04/global-uncertainty-related-to-coronavirus-at-record-high_