{
  "title": "Tracking Trade During the COVID-19 Pandemic",
  "publication": "IMF Blog, May 14, 2020",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2020/05/14/tracking-trade-during-the-covid-19-pandemic",
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  "summary": "Publication date: May 14, 2020.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Publication date: May 14, 2020.\n- Authors: Diego Cerdeiro, Andras Komaromi, Yang Liu, Mamoon Saeed.\n- Purpose: Provide real-time indicators of international trade during the COVID-19 pandemic using ship radio-signal data and machine-learning techniques to overcome delays in official statistics."
    },
    {
      "heading": "New approach and methodology",
      "content": "- Data source: Over one billion messages from ships over a period of five years.\n- Frequency and timeliness: Indicators available at a daily frequency in real time, while official statistics are typically delayed by many weeks.\n- Validation: The ship-signal–based indicators closely replicate official trade statistics for many countries and for the world in aggregate.\n- Statistical correspondence: At the global level, indicators built from ships’ radio signals closely approximate monthly official trade statistics (with a correlation of nearly 0.9 in levels, and around 0.4 in quarter-on-quarter growth rates).\n- Technique: Building on machine-learning techniques to infer trade activity from navigational messages (position, speed, and other information reported many times a day)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings and observed patterns",
      "content": "- China:\n  - Top panel of the Chart of the Week shows a dramatic fall in Chinese exports following initial lockdown measures.\n  - Exports resumed in early to mid-March, but by late-April the recovery remained incomplete and showed renewed signs of weakness.\n- Global patterns:\n  - As China started reopening, world exports initially recovered across the board.\n  - Oil and related products: Recent export performance is especially strong but not fully matched by an increase in world imports—consistent with reports that crude oil is being stored at sea.\n  - Less commoditized goods (those transported in containers, and finished vehicles): Exports of these goods appear on course for a second dip.\n  - Vehicle trade: Very weak readings for vehicle exports and imports as companies across the supply chain halt production and households postpone purchases of durable goods.\n- Interpretation: Daily monitoring of trade developments in real time provides a reliable early warning regarding potential economic contagion effects amid the pandemic."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and value to policymakers",
      "content": "- Real-time indicators help policymakers know what is happening to the economy without waiting for delayed official statistics.\n- Timely trade information is especially valuable given the complexity of international supply chains and the potential for rapid cross-border contagion of economic shocks.\n- The approach can help answer questions such as: How big is the drop in trade activity? Should it be attributed mostly to exports or to imports?"
    },
    {
      "heading": "About the blog and institutional context",
      "content": "- IMFBlog: A forum for the views of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and officials on pressing economic and policy issues of the day.\n- Institutional note: The IMF is based in Washington D.C. and is an organization of 191 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation and financial stability.\n- Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF and its Executive Board.\n\nSource: Tracking Trade During the COVID-19 Pandemic (IMFBlog), May 14, 2020.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- new IMF methodology\n- https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/eng-real-time-trade-effects-may-12trade-chart-1.png\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2020/05/14/tracking-trade-during-the-covid-19-pandemic"
    }
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    "[Markdown version](/en/blogs/articles/2020/05/14/tracking-trade-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/index.md)",
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    "Authors: Diego Cerdeiro, Andras Komaromi, Yang Liu, Mamoon Saeed",
    "Published: May 14, 2020",
    "Publication date: May 14, 2020.",
    "Authors: Diego Cerdeiro, Andras Komaromi, Yang Liu, Mamoon Saeed.",
    "Purpose: Provide real-time indicators of international trade during the COVID-19 pandemic using ship radio-signal data and machine-learning techniques to overcome delays in official statistics.",
    "Data source: Over one billion messages from ships over a period of five years.",
    "Frequency and timeliness: Indicators available at a daily frequency in real time, while official statistics are typically delayed by many weeks.",
    "Validation: The ship-signal–based indicators closely replicate official trade statistics for many countries and for the world in aggregate.",
    "Statistical correspondence: At the global level, indicators built from ships’ radio signals closely approximate monthly official trade statistics (with a correlation of nearly 0.9 in levels, and around 0.4 in quarter-on-quarter growth rates).",
    "Technique: Building on machine-learning techniques to infer trade activity from navigational messages (position, speed, and other information reported many times a day).",
    "China:",
    "Global patterns:",
    "Interpretation: Daily monitoring of trade developments in real time provides a reliable early warning regarding potential economic contagion effects amid the pandemic.",
    "Real-time indicators help policymakers know what is happening to the economy without waiting for delayed official statistics.",
    "Timely trade information is especially valuable given the complexity of international supply chains and the potential for rapid cross-border contagion of economic shocks.",
    "The approach can help answer questions such as: How big is the drop in trade activity? Should it be attributed mostly to exports or to imports?",
    "IMFBlog: A forum for the views of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and officials on pressing economic and policy issues of the day.",
    "Institutional note: The IMF is based in Washington D.C. and is an organization of 191 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation and financial stability.",
    "Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF and its Executive Board.",
    "[new IMF methodology](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/05/14/World-Seaborne-Trade-in-Real-Time-A-Proof-of-Concept-for-Building-AIS-based-Nowcasts-from-49393)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/eng-real-time-trade-effects-may-12trade-chart-1.png](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/eng-real-time-trade-effects-may-12trade-chart-1.png)"
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