{
  "title": "The Next Move: Consequences for Emerging Markets",
  "publication": "IMF Blog, June 2, 2021",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2021/06/02/the-next-move-consequences-for-emerging-markets",
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  "summary": "Publication: Finance & Development issue focused on emerging markets.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview and framing",
      "content": "- Publication: Finance & Development issue focused on emerging markets.\n- Author: Gita Bhatt.\n- Date: June 2, 2021.\n- Definition emphasis: \"emerging markets\" as economies in the middle—neither advanced nor low-income—characterized by widely diverse sizes and growth rates and growing systemic relevance that helps anchor global stability.\n- Core observation: multispeed economic recovery within and across countries, sectors, age groups, genders, and skill levels."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key assessments and perspectives",
      "content": "- Recovery trajectories:\n  - Some countries, exemplified by China, \"have managed to emerge quickly from the present crisis.\"\n  - Others \"may struggle for years to deal with the pandemic’s aftereffects.\"\n- Expert contributions highlighted in the issue:\n  - Rupa Duttagupta and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu: stock-taking with focus on debt, economic policy trade-offs, and priorities for stronger growth.\n  - Richard House and David Lubin (investors): analysis of how emerging market assets have fared during the pandemic and reasons they are unlikely to suffer systemic crises as in the 1980s and 1990s.\n  - Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan: warns of potential for greater turbulence as US interest rates rise.\n  - Francisco Ferreira: finds the pandemic’s effect on inequality is \"manifested in counterintuitive ways, depending on how you measure it.\"\n  - Jim O’Neill: revisits the diverging fortunes of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, \"20 years after coining the acronym 'BRICs'.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Main findings and implications",
      "content": "- Heterogeneous outcomes:\n  - Emerging markets face differing prospects, priorities, and challenges due to diversity in size and growth.\n- Systemic importance:\n  - Group’s growing systemic relevance contributes to global stability, but vulnerabilities remain.\n- Inequality:\n  - The pandemic’s impact on inequality is complex and measurement-dependent.\n- Financial stability risks:\n  - Investor views signal lower risk of systemic crises similar to the 1980s and 1990s, though rising US interest rates could increase turbulence for some economies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations and priorities",
      "content": "- Immediate priority:\n  - \"Procuring, producing and distributing vaccines to end this pandemic.\"\n- Policy strategies for stronger, more inclusive growth:\n  - Well-calibrated economic policies that improve access to health care and education.\n  - Help create jobs and support and retrain displaced workers.\n  - Strengthen public investment in green projects and digital infrastructure.\n- Overarching goal:\n  - Build more inclusive economies that benefit everyone while ensuring macroeconomic stability."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Strategic metaphor and call to action",
      "content": "- As in a chess game, every move by leaders and policymakers has consequences; the piece argues \"Let them be the right ones.\"\n\nSource: The Next Move: Consequences for Emerging Markets — Finance & Development, June 2, 2021.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- this issue\n- China\n- struggle for years\n- take stock\n- discuss how emerging market assets\n- greater turbulence as US interest rates rise\n- pandemic’s effect on inequality\n- diverging fortunes of Brazil, Russia, India, and China\n- build more inclusive economies that benefit everyone\n- https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/index.htm\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2021/06/02/the-next-move-consequences-for-emerging-markets"
    }
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    "[Markdown version](/en/blogs/articles/2021/06/02/the-next-move-consequences-for-emerging-markets/index.md)",
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    "Authors: Gita Bhatt",
    "Published: June 2, 2021",
    "Publication: Finance & Development issue focused on emerging markets.",
    "Author: Gita Bhatt.",
    "Date: June 2, 2021.",
    "Definition emphasis: \"emerging markets\" as economies in the middle—neither advanced nor low-income—characterized by widely diverse sizes and growth rates and growing systemic relevance that helps anchor global stability.",
    "Core observation: multispeed economic recovery within and across countries, sectors, age groups, genders, and skill levels.",
    "Recovery trajectories:",
    "Expert contributions highlighted in the issue:",
    "Heterogeneous outcomes:",
    "Systemic importance:",
    "Inequality:",
    "Financial stability risks:",
    "Immediate priority:",
    "Policy strategies for stronger, more inclusive growth:",
    "Overarching goal:",
    "As in a chess game, every move by leaders and policymakers has consequences; the piece argues \"Let them be the right ones.\"",
    "[this issue](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/)",
    "[China](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2021/06/the-future-of-china-dollar-huang-yao.htm)",
    "[struggle for years](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2021/06/employment-growth-emerging-markets-lanau.htm)",
    "[take stock](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2021/06/the-future-of-emerging-markets-duttagupta-and-pazarbasioglu.htm)",
    "[discuss how emerging market assets](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2021/06/emerging-markets-in-flux-pradhan-house-lubin.htm)",
    "[greater turbulence as US interest rates rise](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2021/06/federal-reserve-emerging-markets-private-debt-kalemli-ozcan.htm)",
    "[pandemic’s effect on inequality](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2021/06/inequality-and-covid-19-ferreira.htm)",
    "[diverging fortunes of Brazil, Russia, India, and China](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2021/06/jim-oneill-revisits-brics-emerging-markets.htm)",
    "[build more inclusive economies that benefit everyone](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2021/06/what-we-owe-each-other-book-minouche-shafik.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/index.htm](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/index.htm)"
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