## Food Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa

_IMF Blog, December 6, 2021_

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**Canonical URL:** [Food Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2021/12/06/food-inflation-in-sub-saharan-africa)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Seung Mo Choi
- Published: December 6, 2021

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### Overview
- Food accounts for roughly 40 percent of the region’s consumption basket—a measure of goods and services used to measure consumer price index (CPI) inflation.
- Food inflation increased throughout 2019, on average, across 20 countries in the region where monthly food price data are available.
- After remaining stable around 9 percent (year over year) since the beginning of the pandemic, food inflation started to rise again from April this year to some 11 percent in October.
- Overall consumer price inflation in sub-Saharan Africa rose to about 9 percent in October, up from around 6 percent in 2019.

### Main drivers of recent food inflation
- Rising oil prices, which raise fertilizer prices and transportation costs.
- Droughts and export restrictions imposed by some major food exporters.
- Stockpiling in some countries.
- Pandemic-related disruptions: containment measures that disrupted production and imports of seeds and fertilizers and caused labor shortages during planting seasons.
- Domestic factors such as weather and exchange rates also play important roles.

### Regional variation
- Food inflation exhibits wide variation across the region:
  - Chad: food inflation is near zero.
  - Angola: food inflation is around 30 percent.
- This diversity suggests domestic factors (weather, exchange rates) can be decisive alongside global drivers.

### Outlook and scenarios
- The outlook is highly uncertain.
- Possible moderating scenario:
  - Food inflation and CPI inflation could moderate if commodity prices ease and pandemic-induced global supply chain disruptions resolve.
- Persistence scenario:
  - High food inflation could persist if inflation expectations become de-anchored or supply chain disruptions continue.
- Near-term expectation:
  - Regionwide, average inflation is expected to edge up in 2021 before easing next year depending on commodity prices and the resolution of supply-demand mismatches.

### Impacts on food insecurity
- Higher food inflation would worsen the situation for countries already facing food insecurity and shortages with a disproportional impact on poor households.
- The number of undernourished persons in the region is projected to have increased by 20 percent in 2020, encompassing 264 million people.

### Policy recommendations and measures
- Fight food insecurity through targeted social assistance and insurance to help populations cope.
- Avoid trade barriers.
- Improve access to:
  - Finance
  - Seed stocks
  - Insecticide
  - Fertilizer
  - Anti-erosion measures
  - Irrigation

### Note on revisions
- The figures for number of countries and corresponding inflation rates were changed several hours after initial publication to update earlier data presented.

*IMF Blog — Seung Mo Choi, December 6, 2021.*

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## References

- [https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/A-rising-trend-COTW-SSA.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/A-rising-trend-COTW-SSA.jpg)
- [Addressing Inflation Pressures Amid an Enduring Pandemic](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/12/03/addressing-inflation-pressures-amid-an-enduring-pandemic/)
- [Four Facts about Soaring Consumer Food Prices](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/06/24/four-facts-about-soaring-consumer-food-prices/)
- [Inflation Scares in an Uncharted Recovery](https://blogs.imf.org/2021/10/06/inflation-scares-in-an-uncharted-recovery/)
- [Safeguarding Africa’s Food Security in the Age of COVID-19](https://blogs.imf.org/2020/06/04/safeguarding-africas-food-security-in-the-age-of-covid-19/)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2021/12/06/food-inflation-in-sub-saharan-africa_