{
  "title": "Pandemic’s E-commerce Surge Proves Less Persistent, More Varied",
  "publication": "IMF Blog, March 17, 2022",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2022/03/17/pandemics-e-commerce-surge-proves-less-persistent-more-varied",
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  "summary": "Database: aggregated and anonymized transactions through the Mastercard network across 47 countries from January 2018 to September 2021.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Data and scope",
      "content": "- Database: aggregated and anonymized transactions through the Mastercard network across 47 countries from January 2018 to September 2021.\n- Study partnership: Mastercard, the International Monetary Fund and Harvard Business School."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Aggregate findings on online spending shares",
      "content": "- Average online share of total spending:\n  - 10.3 percent in 2019\n  - 14.9 percent at the peak of the pandemic\n  - 12.2 percent in 2021\n- Change relative to pre-pandemic trend:\n  - Peak was 4.3 percentage points above the level predicted before the pandemic\n  - By the end of the sample period the difference dropped to 0.3 point\n  - The latest online share of spending is 0.6 percentage points above the growth trend that would have been expected had the crisis not happened"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Cross-country variation and the digital divide",
      "content": "- E-commerce rose more in economies with a higher pre-COVID share of online transactions in total consumption, worsening the digital divide across economies.\n- Countries where online share remained above pre-pandemic trends include Brazil, India, Bahrain, and Jamaica.\n- Countries where online shares are now at or below predicted pre-COVID trend levels include the United States and many advanced economies.\n- Examples of economies with high pre-COVID online penetration that increased further: Singapore, Canada, and the United Kingdom.\n- Examples of economies with low pre-COVID online shares that experienced less acceleration: Brazil and Thailand."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Role of pandemic restrictions and fiscal support",
      "content": "- Economies with stricter mobility limits saw much higher online spending, especially in Q2 2020 when lockdowns severely curtailed movement.\n- Over time, the correlation between restrictions and online spending weakened as the impact of lockdowns and other restrictions on economic activity declined.\n- Fiscal support during the pandemic helped boost e-commerce penetration, likely by increasing consumption that, in the presence of restrictions, could mostly be done online.\n- Wealthier, more digitally mature economies returned faster to pre-pandemic pace of online spending once the crisis receded."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Industry-level heterogeneity and persistence",
      "content": "- Sectors showing more persistent increases in e-commerce:\n  - Restaurants (more specifically food delivery)\n  - Health care (which includes telemedicine)\n  - Some retail categories including department stores, electronics, and clothing\n- Dynamics by industry:\n  - Industries already familiar with online technologies were able to shift online to a larger degree during the initial surge.\n  - Industries with lower pre-pandemic digital maturity—such as retail, restaurants, and health care—have greater potential for e-commerce, particularly in less developed markets.\n- Possible explanations for cross-industry differences:\n  - Mobility and in-person nature of some sectors (e.g., dining) have not fully recovered.\n  - Digitalization was previously low in some sectors, and COVID-19 propelled larger shifts in those areas."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key implications",
      "content": "- The pandemic produced a quick uptake in e-commerce, but the persistence of that learning is not broad-based across countries or industries.\n- Early adopters and digitally mature economies and sectors experienced larger and more sustained shifts toward online spending.\n- There remains substantial room for expansion of e-commerce in less digitally mature economies and in sectors such as retail, restaurants, and health care.\n\nIMF Blog — Joel Alcedo, Alberto Cavallo, Bricklin Dwyer, Prachi Mishra, Antonio Spilimbergo; March 17, 2022\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- new research\n- https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/e-commerce-1.jpg\n- https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/e-commerce-2.jpg\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2022/03/17/pandemics-e-commerce-surge-proves-less-persistent-more-varied"
    }
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    "Authors: Joel Alcedo, Alberto Cavallo, Bricklin Dwyer, Prachi Mishra, Antonio Spilimbergo",
    "Published: March 17, 2022",
    "Database: aggregated and anonymized transactions through the Mastercard network across 47 countries from January 2018 to September 2021.",
    "Study partnership: Mastercard, the International Monetary Fund and Harvard Business School.",
    "Average online share of total spending:",
    "Change relative to pre-pandemic trend:",
    "E-commerce rose more in economies with a higher pre-COVID share of online transactions in total consumption, worsening the digital divide across economies.",
    "Countries where online share remained above pre-pandemic trends include Brazil, India, Bahrain, and Jamaica.",
    "Countries where online shares are now at or below predicted pre-COVID trend levels include the United States and many advanced economies.",
    "Examples of economies with high pre-COVID online penetration that increased further: Singapore, Canada, and the United Kingdom.",
    "Examples of economies with low pre-COVID online shares that experienced less acceleration: Brazil and Thailand.",
    "Economies with stricter mobility limits saw much higher online spending, especially in Q2 2020 when lockdowns severely curtailed movement.",
    "Over time, the correlation between restrictions and online spending weakened as the impact of lockdowns and other restrictions on economic activity declined.",
    "Fiscal support during the pandemic helped boost e-commerce penetration, likely by increasing consumption that, in the presence of restrictions, could mostly be done online.",
    "Wealthier, more digitally mature economies returned faster to pre-pandemic pace of online spending once the crisis receded.",
    "Sectors showing more persistent increases in e-commerce:",
    "Dynamics by industry:",
    "Possible explanations for cross-industry differences:",
    "The pandemic produced a quick uptake in e-commerce, but the persistence of that learning is not broad-based across countries or industries.",
    "Early adopters and digitally mature economies and sectors experienced larger and more sustained shifts toward online spending.",
    "There remains substantial room for expansion of e-commerce in less digitally mature economies and in sectors such as retail, restaurants, and health care.",
    "[new research](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2022/01/28/E-commerce-During-Covid-Stylized-Facts-from-47-Economies-512014)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/e-commerce-1.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/e-commerce-1.jpg)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/e-commerce-2.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/e-commerce-2.jpg)"
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