## Without Adaptation, Middle East and Central Asia Face Crippling Climate Losses

_IMF Blog, March 30, 2022_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Without Adaptation, Middle East and Central Asia Face Crippling Climate Losses](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2022/03/30/blog-without-adaptation-middle-east-and-central-asia-face-crippling-climate-losses)

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- [Markdown version](/en/blogs/articles/2022/03/30/blog-without-adaptation-middle-east-and-central-asia-face-crippling-climate-losses/index.md)
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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Jihad Azour, Christoph Duenwald
- Published: March 30, 2022

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### Key findings on impacts
- In any given year since 2000, climate disasters have:
  - killed more than 2,600 people,
  - affected 7 million others,
  - caused $2 billion in direct material damage.
- Climate disasters in the region reduce annual economic growth by 1-2 percentage points on a per capita basis.
- Over the past three decades, temperatures in the region have risen by 1.5 degrees Celsius—twice the global increase of 0.7 degrees Celsius.
- A temperature increase of 1 degree Celsius in five of the hottest countries (Bahrain, Djibouti, Mauritania, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates) results in an immediate decline in per capita economic growth of around 2 percentage points.
- By 2050, average summertime temperatures could exceed 30 degrees Celsius in half the region’s countries.
- In Tajikistan, the annual probability of climate-induced droughts could rise tenfold from 3 percent today to more than 30 percent by the end of this century.
- Tunisia: 90 percent of tourism is located along coasts threatened by erosion and vulnerable to further rises in the sea levels.
- Examples of acute social impacts: Iran experienced protests after a severe drought forced farmers out of work.

### Vulnerability patterns and drivers
- Countries with low climate resilience, including fragile and conflict-affected states such as Afghanistan, Somalia, and Sudan, as well as Pakistan, have suffered intensely due to high exposure and vulnerability.
- Key compounding factors: reliance on rain-fed subsistence farming, political and macroeconomic instability, low socioeconomic and financial development, and risks to food and social security.
- Countries with stronger institutions and climate-resilient infrastructure, and higher levels of socioeconomic and human development (for example, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries), have generally experienced lower human losses.

### Climate trends and sectoral risks
- Much of the region lies in harsh climate zones where global warming exacerbates desertification, water stress, and rising seas.
- Rainfall has become more variable; droughts and floods are more frequent.
- Seasons are likely to become drier in the Middle East and North Africa; rainfall is likely to become patchier in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Pakistan, increasing drought risk.

### Adaptation priorities and country examples
- Priority should be given to “high-value, no-regret measures” that are beneficial under all plausible climate-change scenarios and to building capacity to adapt to future climate challenges.
- Country examples:
  - Tunisia has expanded capacity to produce freshwater from desalination.
  - Pakistan has strengthened its social safety net by scaling up targeted cash transfers.
  - Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have upgraded cross-border early warning systems for natural disasters.
- Specific recommended interventions:
  - Boost public investment in resilient infrastructure.
  - Encourage a greater role for the private sector in adaptation.
  - Adjust inclusive growth and development agendas to reflect climate risks (for example, by supporting businesses affected by climate change and strengthening social protection for vulnerable households).
- For lower-income, fragile and conflict-affected countries, immediate priorities include strengthening disaster preparedness and improving institutional capacity and community response ability.

### Evidence from simulations and economic framing
- Simulations for Morocco show that investment in water infrastructure would improve resilience to droughts, reducing GDP losses by almost 60 percent and capping the rise in public debt.
- Adaptation policies should be mainstreamed into national economic strategies; macroeconomic frameworks that reflect climate risks should be developed to determine the right policy responses.
- Stepping up adaptation efforts will require significant additional spending and financing.

### Financing adaptation and international cooperation
- Between 2009 and 2019, bilateral and multilateral organizations provided around $70 billion in climate finance to the region; a large proportion was for mitigation initiatives and only around a quarter solely for adaptation.
- Countries need greater international support to finance adaptation, ideally on concessional terms, and transfers of expertise and technology to build capacity.
- The COP27 summit in Egypt later this year is identified as an opportunity for the international community to scale up climate finance contributions and support adaptation in developing economies.
- Tapping additional domestic revenue can help support adaptation spending while reducing increases in public debt.

### Opportunities and IMF role
- Strengthening capacity to adapt is critical and should be pursued alongside global mitigation and transition efforts.
- For countries that adapt in time, opportunities exist to create jobs that are sustainable and support economic recovery and resilience after the pandemic.
- The IMF is supporting member countries with policy advice, capacity development, and lending.
- A proposed Resilience and Sustainability Trust will further support reforms that increase countries’ resilience to climate change.

*Authors: Jihad Azour, Christoph Duenwald — March 30, 2022. International cooperation is essential to manage the costs and maximize the benefits of adaptation, particularly for the most vulnerable countries.*

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## Content in this bundle

- **Climate Risk Country Profile: Tajikistan**
  - [Climate Risk Country Profile: Tajikistan (Markdown version)](/sites/default/files/2021-09/15919-WB_Tajikistan%20Country%20Profile-WEB.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Climate Risk Country Profile: Tajikistan (PDF)](/sites/default/files/2021-09/15919-WB_Tajikistan%20Country%20Profile-WEB.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

## References

- [new IMF staff paper](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Departmental-Papers-Policy-Papers/Issues/2022/03/25/Feeling-the-Heat-Adapting-to-Climate-Change-in-the-Middle-East-and-Central-Asia-464856)
- [https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/climate-blog-chart-1-vulnerability-updated22.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/climate-blog-chart-1-vulnerability-updated22.jpg)
- [https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Climate-blog-chart2-temperatures53.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Climate-blog-chart2-temperatures53.jpg)
- [pressing priority](https://blogs.imf.org/2022/03/23/poor-and-vulnerable-countries-need-support-to-adapt-to-climate-change/)
- [climate challenges](https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/climate-change)
- [Kristalina Georgieva stressed recently](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/03/28/sp033022-MD-remarks-MCD-adaptation-WGS)
- [Resilience and Sustainability Trust](https://blogs.imf.org/2022/01/20/a-new-trust-to-help-countries-build-resilience-and-sustainability/)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2022/03/30/blog-without-adaptation-middle-east-and-central-asia-face-crippling-climate-losses_