## Social Unrest is Rising, Adding to Risks for Global Economy

_IMF Blog, May 20, 2022_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Social Unrest is Rising, Adding to Risks for Global Economy](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2022/05/20/social-unrest-is-rising-adding-to-risks-for-global-economy)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/blogs/articles/2022/05/20/social-unrest-is-rising-adding-to-risks-for-global-economy/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/blogs/articles/2022/05/20/social-unrest-is-rising-adding-to-risks-for-global-economy/index.json)
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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Philip-Barrett
- Published: May 20, 2022

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### Measurement and recent trend
- IMF’s Reported Social Unrest Index counts media mentions of words associated with unrest across 130 countries.
- The fraction of countries experiencing large spikes in this index rose to around 3 percent in February.
- That level is close to the index’s highest levels since the onset of the pandemic.
- After a pause in popular protest during the first year of the pandemic, people are returning to the streets.

### Historical context and recent episodes
- Prior to the pandemic, unrest rose globally, with a notable wave beginning in Chile and spreading through parts of Latin America in October and November 2019.
- Significant unrest around the same period occurred in the Middle East, including Algeria, Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon.
- Unrest declined sharply at the start of the pandemic amid increased social distancing (voluntary and mandatory), consistent with experience during past pandemics.
- Notable unrest events in 2020 included:
  - United States: large racial justice protests.
  - Ethiopia: heightened inter-ethnic tensions.
  - Large anti-government protests in Brazil, Lebanon, and Belarus.
- More recent unrest (later stages of the pandemic) occurred in both advanced and emerging and developing economies:
  - Advanced economies with relatively rare unrest: Canada, New Zealand, Austria, the Netherlands (often anti-government or anti-lockdown motives).
  - Emerging markets and developing economies: Kazakhstan and Chad (anti-government protests); Burkina Faso (coup); Tajikistan (regional protests); Sudan (constitutional crisis).

### Causes and drivers
- Two important factors could increase the risk of future unrest:
  - Relaxation of restrictions and diminished public concern about catching COVID in crowds, reducing pandemic-related disincentives for protest.
  - Public frustration with rising food and fuel prices.
- IMF notes economic causes of civil disorder are complex and unrest is exceptionally hard to predict.
- Historical association: steep price increases for food and fuel have been associated with more frequent protests.

### Economic costs and implications for recovery
- Social unrest can pose a risk to the global economy’s recovery through lasting impacts on economic performance.
- IMF staff research finds that 18 months after the most serious unrest events, gross domestic product is typically about 1 percentage point lower than it would have been otherwise.
- Mechanisms include consumers becoming spooked by uncertainty and lost output in manufacturing and services.

### Outlook and risks
- Although social unrest remains low relative to pre-pandemic levels for now, the lifting of pandemic-era restrictions and the continued cost-of-living squeeze mean protests may yet increase.
- Any rise in social unrest could impose significant economic costs and add to risks facing the global economy.

*Philip Barrett, May 20, 2022 — Social Unrest is Rising, Adding to Risks for Global Economy*

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## References

- [Reported Social Unrest Index](https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2022/084/001.2022.issue-084-en.xml?result=10&rskey=IphFUI)
- [Chart of the Week](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Chart-of-the-week)
- [https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Social-Unrest-Blog-Chart-for-post.jpg](https://www.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Social-Unrest-Blog-Chart-for-post.jpg)
- [IMF research](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/01/29/Social-Repercussions-of-Pandemics-50041)
- [economic causes of civil disorder are complex](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2021/08/economics-of-social-unrest-imf-barrett-chen.htm)
- [paper last year](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/05/07/The-Macroeconomic-Impact-of-Social-Unrest-50338)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2022/05/20/social-unrest-is-rising-adding-to-risks-for-global-economy_