{
  "title": "Slowing Global Economic Growth is Increasingly Evident, High-Frequency Data Show",
  "publication": "IMF Blog, November 14, 2022",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2022/11/13/slowing-global-economic-growth-is-increasingly-evident-high-frequency-data-show",
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  "summary": "While there are multiple headwinds weighing on growth, further policy tightening is expected amid the need to bring down elevated inflation",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Major headwinds to global growth",
      "content": "- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.\n- Interest rate increases to contain inflation.\n- Lingering pandemic effects, including China’s lockdowns and disruptions in supply chains.\n- Interactions of these shocks contributing to broad-based slowdown."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings from recent analysis and high-frequency indicators",
      "content": "- The latest World Economic Outlook lowered the global growth forecast for next year to 2.7 percent.\n- Countries accounting for more than one third of global output are expected to contract during part of this year or next.\n- Recent high-frequency indicators, including purchasing manager indices (PMIs), confirm a gloomier outlook.\n- PMI readings for a growing share of G20 countries have fallen from expansionary territory earlier this year to levels that signal contraction, affecting both advanced and emerging market economies.\n- Gross domestic product releases for the third quarter surprised on the upside in some major economies, but October PMI releases point to weakness in the fourth quarter, particularly in Europe.\n- In China, intermittent pandemic lockdowns and the struggling real estate sector are contributing to a slowdown evident in PMI data, investment, industrial production, and retail sales; this slowdown will have a significant impact on other economies because of China’s large role in trade."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations",
      "content": "- Policymakers should continue to prioritize containing inflation, given its contribution to a cost-of-living crisis and disproportionate harm to low-income and vulnerable groups.\n- The macroeconomic policy environment is unusually uncertain.\n- Continued fiscal and monetary tightening is likely needed in many countries to bring down inflation and address debt vulnerabilities.\n- Further tightening in many G20 economies is expected in the months ahead.\n- Such policy tightening will continue to weigh on economic activity, especially in interest-sensitive sectors such as housing.\n- Careful policy action and joint multilateral efforts can help move the world toward stronger and more inclusive growth.\n\nTryggvi Gudmundsson — November 14, 2022\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- World Economic Outlook\n- latest report\n- Group of Twenty\n- significant impact on other economies\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2022/11/13/slowing-global-economic-growth-is-increasingly-evident-high-frequency-data-show"
    }
  ],
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    "Authors: Tryggvi Gudmundsson",
    "Published: November 14, 2022",
    "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.",
    "Interest rate increases to contain inflation.",
    "Lingering pandemic effects, including China’s lockdowns and disruptions in supply chains.",
    "Interactions of these shocks contributing to broad-based slowdown.",
    "The latest World Economic Outlook lowered the global growth forecast for next year to 2.7 percent.",
    "Countries accounting for more than one third of global output are expected to contract during part of this year or next.",
    "Recent high-frequency indicators, including purchasing manager indices (PMIs), confirm a gloomier outlook.",
    "PMI readings for a growing share of G20 countries have fallen from expansionary territory earlier this year to levels that signal contraction, affecting both advanced and emerging market economies.",
    "Gross domestic product releases for the third quarter surprised on the upside in some major economies, but October PMI releases point to weakness in the fourth quarter, particularly in Europe.",
    "In China, intermittent pandemic lockdowns and the struggling real estate sector are contributing to a slowdown evident in PMI data, investment, industrial production, and retail sales; this slowdown will have a significant impact on other economies because of China’s large role in trade.",
    "Policymakers should continue to prioritize containing inflation, given its contribution to a cost-of-living crisis and disproportionate harm to low-income and vulnerable groups.",
    "The macroeconomic policy environment is unusually uncertain.",
    "Continued fiscal and monetary tightening is likely needed in many countries to bring down inflation and address debt vulnerabilities.",
    "Further tightening in many G20 economies is expected in the months ahead.",
    "Such policy tightening will continue to weigh on economic activity, especially in interest-sensitive sectors such as housing.",
    "Careful policy action and joint multilateral efforts can help move the world toward stronger and more inclusive growth.",
    "[World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/10/11/world-economic-outlook-october-2022)",
    "[latest report](https://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/111322.htm)",
    "[Group of Twenty](https://www.imf.org/en/Research/IMFandG20)",
    "[significant impact on other economies](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/13/asia-sails-into-headwinds-from-rate-hikes-war-and-china-slowdown)"
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