## Africa’s Fragile States Are Greatest Climate Change Casualties _IMF Blog, August 30, 2023_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [Africa’s Fragile States Are Greatest Climate Change Casualties](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2023/08/30/africas-fragile-states-are-greatest-climate-change-casualties) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/blogs/articles/2023/08/30/africas-fragile-states-are-greatest-climate-change-casualties/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/blogs/articles/2023/08/30/africas-fragile-states-are-greatest-climate-change-casualties/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/blogs/articles/2023/08/30/africas-fragile-states-are-greatest-climate-change-casualties/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Authors: Jihad Azour, Abebe Aemro Selassie - Published: August 30, 2023 --- ### Overview and context - Publication date: August 30, 2023. - Core argument: Climate change imposes disproportionately larger human, economic, and social costs on fragile and conflict-affected states in Africa, which have contributed the least to climate change. - Drivers of disproportionate impact: geographical location with higher temperatures, conflict, dependence on rainfed agriculture, and lower capacity to manage risks and finance adaptation. ### Key findings and statistics - Each year, three times more people are affected by natural disasters in fragile states than in other countries. - Disasters in fragile states displace more than twice the share of the population in other countries. - By 2040, fragile states could face 61 days a year of temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius on average—four times more than other countries. - A new IMF paper finds cumulative losses in gross domestic product reach about 4 percent in fragile states three years after extreme weather events, compared with around 1 percent in other countries. - Droughts in fragile states are expected to cut about 0.2 percentage points from their per-capita GDP growth every year. - In a high emissions scenario, and all else equal, deaths from conflict as a share of the population could increase by close to 10 percent in fragile countries by 2060. - Climate change would push an additional 50 million people in fragile states into hunger by 2060. - Agriculture represents close to one-quarter of economic output in fragile states, but only 3 percent of cultivated areas are irrigated with canals, reservoirs, and the like. - Sudan’s Gezira irrigation scheme once covered 8,000 square kilometers of fecund farmland but has shrunk to less than half that area owing to poor maintenance. ### Mechanisms amplifying impact in fragile states - Geographic exposure: fragile states are located in hotter parts of the planet and face more frequent extreme weather events. - Conflict effects: conflict undermines delivery of humanitarian assistance and maintenance of infrastructure (example: areas controlled by terrorist groups in Somalia impeded assistance during the 2021-22 drought). - Agricultural vulnerability: high dependence on rainfed agriculture and limited, poorly maintained irrigation infrastructure increase susceptibility to droughts and floods. - Financial constraints: limited domestic financial capacity to fund adaptation and recovery amplifies long-term losses. ### Macroeconomic consequences - Larger and more persistent GDP losses after extreme weather events in fragile states (about 4 percent cumulative loss three years after events). - Ongoing negative growth impacts from recurrent droughts (0.2 percentage points lower per-capita GDP growth every year). - Risk of widening income gaps between fragile states and other countries due to persistent climate-related losses. ### Policy considerations and recommendations - Build fiscal and financial buffers to facilitate immediate response and faster recovery: - Increase domestic revenues. - Lower public debt and deficits. - Maintain higher international reserves. - Strengthen social safety nets and leverage insurance schemes to finance recovery from catastrophic events. - Implement policies to build climate resilience over time, including scaling up climate-resilient infrastructure investments. - International support is critical because adaptation financing needs exceed what fragile and conflict-affected countries can afford on their own: - Sizable and sustained concessional financing and capacity development from international development partners are urgent to avoid worsening hunger, conflict, forced displacement, and migration. - IMF role: provide tailored policy advice, financial assistance, capacity development, and synergies with other partners; deliver financial support through standard facilities, emergency financing, and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. ### Strategic implication - Without substantial and coordinated international action, climate change risks deepening fragility in affected African states—aggravating conflict, hunger, displacement, and long-term economic divergence. *Source: “Africa’s Fragile States Are Greatest Climate Change Casualties,” IMF blog, August 30, 2023 — https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2023/08/30/africas-fragile-states-are-greatest-climate-change-casualties* --- ## References - [fragile states](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Analytical-Series/financing-peace-and-stability-franck-bousquet) - [A new IMF paper](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/staff-climate-notes/Issues/2023/08/24/Climate-Challenges-in-Fragile-and-Conflict-Affected-States-537797?cid=bl-com-CLNEA2023001) - [falling further behind](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/01/21/fragile-and-conflict-affected-economies-are-falling-further-behind) - [strategy](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2022/03/14/The-IMF-Strategy-for-Fragile-and-Conflict-Affected-States-515129) - [Resilience and Sustainability Facility](https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2023/Resilience-Sustainability-Facility-RSF) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2023/08/30/africas-fragile-states-are-greatest-climate-change-casualties_