## How Distrust of Government by Marginalized People Fuels Conflict in Africa

_IMF Blog, January 25, 2024_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [How Distrust of Government by Marginalized People Fuels Conflict in Africa](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/01/25/how-distrust-of-government-by-marginalized-people-fuels-conflict-in-africa)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Hany Abdel Latif, Mahmoud El Gamal
- Published: January 25, 2024

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### Overview and authorship
- Authors: Hany Abdel Latif, Mahmoud El Gamal
- Publication date: January 25, 2024
- Publication type: IMFBlog page
- Context: Sub-Saharan Africa and Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, Mauritania, Mali) face protracted conflicts and humanitarian crises.
- Time horizon of analysis: 1990 to 2022
- Institutional note: IMF is an organization of 191 countries.

### Key findings: exclusion, distrust, and conflict
- Distrust of state institutions among marginalized groups is identified as a key driver of unrest in sub-Saharan Africa.
- Distrust reflects perceptions that governments fail to address equity issues and inclusive growth, including:
  - fair allocation of natural resources
  - human capital development
- Institutional failures aggravate feelings of exclusion where some people or groups are systematically denied rights, opportunities, or resources that may be available to other segments of the population.
- Conflict often concentrates near national borders where public services tend to be limited or insufficient, fostering feelings of exclusion and creating conflict-prone hotspots with cross-border spillover risks.
- Notable conflicts with potential cross-border spillovers include:
  - the recent civil war in Ethiopia
  - long-running conflicts in South Sudan and the Central African Republic
  - extremism-driven conflicts across the Sahel and northern Mozambique

### Analytical approach and measures
- The analysis covers conditions across all countries in sub-Saharan Africa from 1990 to 2022.
- The study introduces a new exclusion index to explore the instrumental role of social, political, and economic exclusion in driving conflicts.

### Interaction with other drivers and consequences
- Exclusion and distrust are not the only causes of conflict; other contributing factors include:
  - climate change
  - food insecurity
- Poverty and underdevelopment alone may not fuel conflict but are exacerbated by experiences or perceptions of social and economic exclusion, creating fertile ground for armed groups.
- Security crises have dire repercussions and interact with these challenges, highlighting needs for:
  - humanitarian assistance
  - improved quality and efficiency of security expenditures
  - combating terrorism financing
- Efforts focused solely on security and humanitarian assistance may fall short if exclusion is not simultaneously addressed.

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Mitigating violent conflict requires a comprehensive approach addressing various forms of exclusion.
- Fostering relationships between people and government is crucial, with emphasis on:
  - ensuring justice
  - equitable public service delivery
  - improving access to services
- Addressing equity, inclusive growth, and fair allocation of resources is central to establishing conditions for sustainable peace and social cohesion.

*Source: IMFBlog, "How Distrust of Government by Marginalized People Fuels Conflict in Africa", January 25, 2024.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/01/25/how-distrust-of-government-by-marginalized-people-fuels-conflict-in-africa_