## Even as Global Uncertainty Surges, Economic Sentiment Remains Positive

_IMF Blog, November 10, 2025_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Even as Global Uncertainty Surges, Economic Sentiment Remains Positive](https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2025/11/10/even-as-global-uncertainty-surges-economic-sentiment-remains-positive)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, Davide Furceri
- Published: November 10, 2025

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### Overview
- Title: Even as Global Uncertainty Surges, Economic Sentiment Remains Positive
- Authors: Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, Davide Furceri
- Date: November 10, 2025
- Core finding: Global economic uncertainty has surged even as sentiment about economic prospects remains positive.

### World Uncertainty Index and World Policy Uncertainty Index
- Major policy shifts this year have been adding to unknowns about the future and policy decisions, according to the World Uncertainty Index, which has doubled since January.
- Uncertainty has surged to an exceptionally high level globally, and it’s likely here to stay, as the IMF noted during the recent Annual Meetings.
- New subcomponent introduced: World Policy Uncertainty Index.
  - Source material: drawn from textual sources.
  - Method: tracks reports by the Economist Intelligence Unit by tallying country-level references to “uncertain,” “uncertainty,” and “uncertainties” in passages related to “policy,” “policymaking,” and words related to politics such as “election,” “government,” and “vote.”
  - Coverage: 71 advanced countries, emerging markets, and developing economies.
- Methodological lineage: the methodology is based on a February 2022 National Bureau of Economic Research working paper.

### World Sentiment Index
- The World Sentiment Index tracks the same 71 economies in Economist Intelligence Unit reports.
- Sentiment measurement:
  - Uses word lists developed in a 2016 paper by Herman Stekler and Hilary Symington.
  - Groups and weights terms ranging from positives, like “solid” and “steady,” to negatives, such as “crisis” and “recession.”
- Historical behavior:
  - Index levels are negative during major global recessions and spikes in uncertainty—such as the global financial crisis and the pandemic.
  - Although the index temporarily dipped earlier this year, it remains positive and above the historical average.

### Chart of the Week and Key Interpretations
- The Chart of the Week shows a recent record monthly level for policy uncertainty accompanied by relatively upbeat readings for the World Sentiment Index.
- Interpretation:
  - The coexistence of high policy uncertainty and positive sentiment echoes recent IMF forecasts that the global economy remains resilient and is slowing only modestly.
  - Drivers of resilience cited: improved policies, especially in emerging markets, alongside better business adaptability.
  - Elevated uncertainty may represent a new normal.

### Related references mentioned in the text
- “Uncertainty about Uncertainty,” September 2025 issue of Finance & Development.
- Related 2023 blog: “Global Economic Uncertainty Remains Elevated, Weighing on Growth.”
- Nicholas Bloom noted as a professor of economics at Stanford University and co-director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

*Source: IMF blog post — Even as Global Uncertainty Surges, Economic Sentiment Remains Positive (November 10, 2025).*

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## References

- [here to stay](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/10/08/sp100825-annual-meetings-2025-curtain-raiser)
- [forecasts](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2025/10/14/global-economic-outlook-shows-modest-change-amid-policy-shifts-and-complex-forces)
- [Uncertainty about Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2025/09/uncertainty-about-uncertainty-nicholas-bloom)
- [Global Economic Uncertainty Remains Elevated, Weighing on Growth](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/01/26/global-economic-uncertainty-remains-elevated-weighing-on-growth)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2025/11/10/even-as-global-uncertainty-surges-economic-sentiment-remains-positive_