{
  "title": "Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDTx)",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/ddtx",
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  "summary": "Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDTx) Training Program Course Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDTx) This online course provides an overview of how to assess public debt dynamics under uncertainty.",
  "publishDate": "2025-07-17",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- An online course that provides an overview of how to assess public debt dynamics under uncertainty.\n- Focuses on projecting public debt when key underlying variables are uncertain: GDP growth, interest rates, exchange rates, and primary balances.\n- Teaches production and interpretation of fan charts as graphical tools to describe uncertainty about a variable’s evolution over time."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key tools and concepts",
      "content": "- Fan charts: used to depict uncertainty around public debt projections and to derive a safe level of debt.\n- Maximum debt limit: defined as the level of debt beyond which there could be significant negative consequences for the economy.\n- Safe debt: a level of debt sufficiently below the debt limit to provide a comfortable and prudent buffer.\n- Stress testing: conducting stress tests of public debt projections, including using fan charts, to assess fiscal risks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Target audience and prerequisites",
      "content": "- Target audience:\n  - Officials from ministries of finance\n  - Debt agencies\n  - Central banks\n  - Other government agencies responsible for advising on or implementing macroeconomic and debt policies\n- Qualifications:\n  - Some knowledge of economics would be helpful.\n  - Basic Microsoft Excel skills are essential."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Course objectives",
      "content": "- Project public debt.\n- Identify the main drivers of public debt changes.\n- Compute measures of fiscal adjustments consistent with a public debt target.\n- Conduct a stress test to public debt projections, including through the use of fan charts.\n- Identify the main components of a debt sustainability analysis to assess the risk of debt distress."
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "An online course that provides an overview of how to assess public debt dynamics under uncertainty.",
    "Focuses on projecting public debt when key underlying variables are uncertain: GDP growth, interest rates, exchange rates, and primary balances.",
    "Teaches production and interpretation of fan charts as graphical tools to describe uncertainty about a variable’s evolution over time.",
    "Fan charts: used to depict uncertainty around public debt projections and to derive a safe level of debt.",
    "Maximum debt limit: defined as the level of debt beyond which there could be significant negative consequences for the economy.",
    "Safe debt: a level of debt sufficiently below the debt limit to provide a comfortable and prudent buffer.",
    "Stress testing: conducting stress tests of public debt projections, including using fan charts, to assess fiscal risks.",
    "Target audience:",
    "Qualifications:",
    "Project public debt.",
    "Identify the main drivers of public debt changes.",
    "Compute measures of fiscal adjustments consistent with a public debt target.",
    "Conduct a stress test to public debt projections, including through the use of fan charts.",
    "Identify the main components of a debt sustainability analysis to assess the risk of debt distress."
  ],
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  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-29T16:35:01.627Z"
}