## Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDTx)

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDTx)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/ddtx)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/ddtx/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/ddtx/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/ddtx/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: July 17, 2025

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## Upcoming offerings

| Start date | End date | Location | Delivery Method | Session No. | Primary & (Interpretation) language | Apply |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| May 1, 2026 | April 15, 2027 | Course conducted online | [[[[[Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods) | [OL 26.123](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/ddtxol26-123) | French | [[[[[Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.124S)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.125P)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.131E)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.126A)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.123F) by April 1, 2027 |
| May 1, 2026 | April 15, 2027 | Course conducted online | [[[[[Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods) | [OL 26.126](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/ddtxol26-126) | Arabic | [[[[[Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.124S)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.125P)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.131E)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.126A)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.123F) by April 1, 2027 |
| May 1, 2026 | April 15, 2027 | Course conducted online | [[[[[Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods) | [OL 26.131](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/ddtxol26-131) | English | [[[[[Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.124S)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.125P)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.131E)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.126A)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.123F) by April 1, 2027 |
| May 1, 2026 | April 15, 2027 | Course conducted online | [[[[[Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods) | [OL 26.125](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/ddtxol26-125) | Portuguese | [[[[[Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.124S)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.125P)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.131E)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.126A)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.123F) by April 1, 2027 |
| May 1, 2026 | April 15, 2027 | Course conducted online | [[[[[Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods) | [OL 26.124](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/ddtxol26-124) | Spanish | [[[[[Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.124S)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.125P)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.131E)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.126A)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.123F) by April 1, 2027 |

### Overview
- An online course that provides an overview of how to assess public debt dynamics under uncertainty.
- Focuses on projecting public debt when key underlying variables are uncertain: GDP growth, interest rates, exchange rates, and primary balances.
- Teaches production and interpretation of fan charts as graphical tools to describe uncertainty about a variable’s evolution over time.

### Key tools and concepts
- Fan charts: used to depict uncertainty around public debt projections and to derive a safe level of debt.
- Maximum debt limit: defined as the level of debt beyond which there could be significant negative consequences for the economy.
- Safe debt: a level of debt sufficiently below the debt limit to provide a comfortable and prudent buffer.
- Stress testing: conducting stress tests of public debt projections, including using fan charts, to assess fiscal risks.

### Target audience and prerequisites
- Target audience:
  - Officials from ministries of finance
  - Debt agencies
  - Central banks
  - Other government agencies responsible for advising on or implementing macroeconomic and debt policies
- Qualifications:
  - Some knowledge of economics would be helpful.
  - Basic Microsoft Excel skills are essential.

### Course objectives
- Project public debt.
- Identify the main drivers of public debt changes.
- Compute measures of fiscal adjustments consistent with a public debt target.
- Conduct a stress test to public debt projections, including through the use of fan charts.
- Identify the main components of a debt sustainability analysis to assess the risk of debt distress.

---


## References

- [Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)
- [OL 26.123](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/ddtxol26-123)
- [OL 26.126](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/ddtxol26-126)
- [OL 26.131](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/ddtxol26-131)
- [OL 26.125](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/ddtxol26-125)
- [OL 26.124](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/ddtxol26-124)
- [Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.123F)
- [Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.126A)
- [Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.131E)
- [Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.125P)
- [Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.124S)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/ddtx_