{
  "title": "Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/mpaf",
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  "summary": "Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF) Training Program Course Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF) This course provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting.",
  "publishDate": "2025-07-22",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- The course provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting.\n- Emphasis on analyzing monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.\n- Participants receive tools to develop or extend the canonical model to fit their own monetary policy framework and selected features of their country's economy.\n- Country case studies are used to reinforce understanding and to compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.\n- Topic: Monetary and External Sector Policies\n- Duration: two-week course."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Target audience and qualifications",
      "content": "- Target audience:\n  - Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making.\n  - Staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.\n- Qualifications:\n  - Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience.\n  - Participants are expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Course objectives",
      "content": "- Upon completion, participants should be able to:\n  - Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the shocks this economy may face.\n  - Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using small semi-structural models.\n  - Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term projections for key macro variables, e.g., output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.\n  - Identify risks to the baseline forecast and build alternative scenarios that assume certain risks may materialize.\n  - Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own country data when they return home."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Syllabus and course structure",
      "content": "- The two-week course aims at providing rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary analysis and forecasting.\n- Emphasis on analyzing monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.\n- Tools provided to develop and/or extend the model to fit participants' own monetary policy framework.\n- Country case studies used to reinforce participants’ understanding and to help them compare, contrast, and assess various experiences.\n- Course structure: Course Structure and Standard Syllabus (as stated)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Skills, tools, and practical outcomes",
      "content": "- Technical focus:\n  - Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) modeling.\n  - Small semi-structural models for policy analysis and forecasting.\n- Software:\n  - Familiarity with Matlab/Octave expected (specific software expertise not required).\n- Practical outcomes for participants:\n  - Ability to develop consistent medium-term projections for output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.\n  - Ability to build alternative scenarios and assess risks to a baseline forecast.\n  - Foundation to start building a country-specific model using domestic data."
    }
  ],
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    "The course provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting.",
    "Emphasis on analyzing monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.",
    "Participants receive tools to develop or extend the canonical model to fit their own monetary policy framework and selected features of their country's economy.",
    "Country case studies are used to reinforce understanding and to compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.",
    "Topic: Monetary and External Sector Policies",
    "Duration: two-week course.",
    "Target audience:",
    "Qualifications:",
    "Upon completion, participants should be able to:",
    "The two-week course aims at providing rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary analysis and forecasting.",
    "Emphasis on analyzing monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.",
    "Tools provided to develop and/or extend the model to fit participants' own monetary policy framework.",
    "Country case studies used to reinforce participants’ understanding and to help them compare, contrast, and assess various experiences.",
    "Course structure: Course Structure and Standard Syllabus (as stated).",
    "Technical focus:",
    "Software:",
    "Practical outcomes for participants:",
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