## Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/mpaf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/mpaf/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/mpaf/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/mpaf/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: July 22, 2025

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## Upcoming offerings

| Start date | End date | Location | Delivery Method | Session No. | Primary & (Interpretation) language | Apply |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| November 2, 2026 | November 13, 2026 | Vienna, Austria | [[Blended Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods) | [JV 26.35](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/jv/2026/mpafjv26-35) | English | Deadline passed |
| November 1, 2027 | November 12, 2027 | Vienna, Austria | [[Blended Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods) | [JV 27.34](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/jv/2027/mpafjv27-34) | English | [Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=JV27.34E) by July 25, 2027 |

### Overview
- The course provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting.
- Emphasis on analyzing monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.
- Participants receive tools to develop or extend the canonical model to fit their own monetary policy framework and selected features of their country's economy.
- Country case studies are used to reinforce understanding and to compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.
- Topic: Monetary and External Sector Policies
- Duration: two-week course.

### Target audience and qualifications
- Target audience:
  - Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making.
  - Staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.
- Qualifications:
  - Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience.
  - Participants are expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required.

### Course objectives
- Upon completion, participants should be able to:
  - Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the shocks this economy may face.
  - Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using small semi-structural models.
  - Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term projections for key macro variables, e.g., output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
  - Identify risks to the baseline forecast and build alternative scenarios that assume certain risks may materialize.
  - Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own country data when they return home.

### Syllabus and course structure
- The two-week course aims at providing rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary analysis and forecasting.
- Emphasis on analyzing monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.
- Tools provided to develop and/or extend the model to fit participants' own monetary policy framework.
- Country case studies used to reinforce participants’ understanding and to help them compare, contrast, and assess various experiences.
- Course structure: Course Structure and Standard Syllabus (as stated).

### Skills, tools, and practical outcomes
- Technical focus:
  - Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) modeling.
  - Small semi-structural models for policy analysis and forecasting.
- Software:
  - Familiarity with Matlab/Octave expected (specific software expertise not required).
- Practical outcomes for participants:
  - Ability to develop consistent medium-term projections for output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
  - Ability to build alternative scenarios and assess risks to a baseline forecast.
  - Foundation to start building a country-specific model using domestic data.

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## Content in this bundle

- **Normal**
  - [Normal (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/icd/mpaf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Normal (PDF)](/-/media/files/icd/mpaf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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## References

- [Blended Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)
- [JV 26.35](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/jv/2026/mpafjv26-35)
- [JV 27.34](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/jv/2027/mpafjv27-34)
- [Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=JV27.34E)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/mpaf_