## Training Program Course: Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx)

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Training Program Course: Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/mpafx)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/mpafx/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/mpafx/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/mpafx/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: July 24, 2025

---

### Course overview
- The course introduces participants to a semi-structural macroeconomic model often used as a core of FPAS (Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems) at the central banks.
- The course shows how to implement the key equations of a canonical quarterly projection model (QPM) in a macroeconomic modeling software.
- The course uses detailed country data highlighting an inflation targeting central bank, for hands-on historical filtration, forecasting, and calibration exercises.
- Topic: Monetary and External Sector Policies
- Speaker: Andrew Berg

### Technical content and learning focus
- The course covers two main technical aspects:
  - introduction to a canonical New Keynesian model structure and its key properties; and
  - implementation of the QPM in Matlab/Octave and the application of IRIS toolbox for solving and maintaining the QPM, as well as forecasting with the QPM.
- Emphasis on hands-on exercises: historical filtration, forecasting, and calibration using country data that highlights an inflation targeting central bank.

### Target audience and qualifications
- Target Audience:
  - All government officials are welcome to register.
  - The course is particularly well-suited for officials in central banks that are in the early stages of introducing Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems (FPAS) with IMF assistance.
- Qualifications:
  - Participants are expected to have a background in undergraduate macroeconomics, statistics, and econometrics.
  - Participants are provided with guidance on how to access Matlab or Octave software.

### Course objectives
Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:
- Explain the building blocks and key model equations of a canonical semi-structural QPM.
- Implement and calibrate a simple QPM using a specialized software for macroeconomic modelling.
- Identify necessary codes for data transformation, filtration, forecasts, and evaluation of the QPM properties and model-based outputs.
- Produce a baseline forecast and alternative scenarios using the QPM.

### Video summary
- The course introduces participants to quarterly projection macroeconomic models developed as a core of FPAS (Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems) and how to implement the key canonical quarterly projection model (QPM) equations in a macroeconomic modeling software.

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/courses/mpafx_