## Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ct/2026/mpafct26-02)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ct/2026/mpafct26-02/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ct/2026/mpafct26-02/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ct/2026/mpafct26-02/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Session: CT 26.02
- Location: Shenzhen, China
- Dates: March 9-20, 2026 (2 weeks)
- Delivery method: In-person Training
- Primary language: English
- Status: Deadline passed

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### Program logistics and audience
- Session No.: CT 26.02
- Location: Shenzhen, China
- Date: March 9-20, 2026 (2 weeks)
- Delivery Method: In-person Training
- Primary Language: English
- Application status: Deadline passed
- Target Audience:
  - Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making and staff producing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.
  - Primarily central bank officials from Monetary Policy Department and/or Research/Modeling Department.
  - Representatives from other departments or other agencies (e.g., Ministry of Finance/Economy) are also encouraged to apply.

### Qualifications and prerequisites
- Expected background:
  - Advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience.
  - Comfortable using quantitative software such as Matlab (specific knowledge not required).
- Recommended prior learning:
  - Completion of the online Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting course on edX.org is recommended.

### Course description and focus
- The course provides rigorous training on the use of Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting.
- Emphasis areas:
  - Analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.
  - Tools to develop or extend the canonical model to fit a country’s monetary policy framework and selected features of the country’s economy.
- Pedagogical approach:
  - Country case studies to reinforce understanding.
  - Production of real-time baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios.

### Course objectives and competencies
Upon completion of the course, participants should be able to:
- Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the shocks this economy may face.
- Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using small semi-structural models.
- Use the semi-structural gap model to develop consistent medium-term projections for key macro variables, e.g., output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
- Identify risks to the baseline forecast and build alternative scenarios that assume certain risks may materialize.
- Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own country data when they return home.

### Additional training note
- The IMF offers online training to government officials and the public; interested participants are directed to Learn more for current offerings.

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## References

- [In-person Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)
- [Core Elements of Banking Supervision (CBS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2027/cbsat27-10)
- [Advanced Government Finance Statistics (GFS-A)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/gfs-ace26-45)
- [Fiscal Sustainability (FS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/fsce26-38)
- [Safeguards Assessments of Central Banks (SAC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2026/sacat26-30)
- [Macroeconomic Management in Resource Rich Countries (MRC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/mrcce26-44)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ct/2026/mpafct26-02_