## Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/jv/2026/mpafjv26-35)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/jv/2026/mpafjv26-35/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/jv/2026/mpafjv26-35/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/jv/2026/mpafjv26-35/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Session: JV 26.35
- Location: Vienna, Austria
- Dates: November 2-13, 2026 (2 weeks)
- Delivery method: Blended Training
- Primary language: English
- Status: Deadline passed

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### Target audience and qualifications
- Target audience: Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making and staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.
- Qualifications:
  - Expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience.
  - Expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required.

### Session logistics
- Session No.: JV 26.35
- Location: Vienna, Austria
- Date: November 2-13, 2026 (2 weeks)
- Delivery Method: Blended Training
- Primary Language: English
- Registration status: Deadline passed

### Course description and core content
- The course provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting.
- Emphasis on analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.
- Participants receive tools to develop or extend the canonical model to fit their own monetary policy framework and selected features of their country's economy.
- Country case studies are used to reinforce understanding and to compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.

### Blended course requirements
- The course will run in a blended format, consisting of two compulsory parts.
- Selected participants will first complete on their own time three mandatory short online learning segments and consultation hours with lecturers during October 12 - 23, 2026.
- In-person portion of the course will be held at JVI in Vienna during November 2 - 13, 2026.
- Completing both the online and in-person parts of the course is required for successful completion of the course in order to receive the course certificate.

### Course objectives
Upon completion of the course, participants should be able to:
- Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the shocks this economy may face.
- Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using small semi-structural models.
- Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term projections for key macro variables, e.g., output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
- Identify risks to the baseline forecast and build alternative scenarios that assume certain risks may materialize.
- Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own country data when they return home.

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## References

- [Blended Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)
- [Core Elements of Banking Supervision (CBS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2027/cbsat27-10)
- [Advanced Government Finance Statistics (GFS-A)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/gfs-ace26-45)
- [Fiscal Sustainability (FS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/fsce26-38)
- [Safeguards Assessments of Central Banks (SAC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2026/sacat26-30)
- [Macroeconomic Management in Resource Rich Countries (MRC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/mrcce26-44)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/jv/2026/mpafjv26-35_