## Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/jv/2027/mpafjv27-34)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/jv/2027/mpafjv27-34/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/jv/2027/mpafjv27-34/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/jv/2027/mpafjv27-34/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Session: JV 27.34
- Location: Vienna, Austria
- Dates: November 1-12, 2027 (2 weeks)
- Delivery method: Blended Training
- Primary language: English
- Status: Apply online by July 25, 2027

---

### Program logistics and format
- Session No.: JV 27.34
- Location: Vienna, Austria
- Date: November 1-12, 2027 (2 weeks)
- Delivery Method: Blended Training
- Primary Language: English
- BLENDED COURSE REQUIREMENTS:
  - Two compulsory parts.
  - Three mandatory short online learning segments and consultation hours with lecturers during October 11 - 22, 2027 (to be completed on participants' own time).
  - In-person portion at JVI in Vienna during November 1 - 12, 2027.
  - Completing both the online and in-person parts is required to receive the course certificate.
- Application note:
  - Due to the transition to a new IMF course registration system, formal applications for this course cannot be submitted at this time.
  - Interested candidates can submit their details to be notified when applications open.

### Target audience and qualifications
- Target Audience:
  - Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making.
  - Staff producing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.
  - Primarily central bank officials from Monetary Policy Department and/or Research/Modeling Department.
  - Representatives from other departments or other agencies (e.g., Ministry of Finance/Economy) are also encouraged to apply.
- Qualifications:
  - Expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience.
  - Expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as Matlab, although specific knowledge is not required.
  - Recommended to complete the online Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx) course prior to participation.

### Course description and instructional focus
- Emphasis:
  - Rigorous training on the use of Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting.
  - Analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.
- Practical orientation:
  - Tools to develop or extend the canonical model to fit participants' monetary policy framework and selected features of their country's economy.
  - Country case studies to reinforce understanding.
  - Production of real-time baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios.

### Learning objectives and participant outcomes
- Upon completion, participants should be able to:
  - Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the shocks this economy may face.
  - Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using small semi-structural models.
  - Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term projections for key macro variables, e.g., output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
  - Identify risks to the baseline forecast and build alternative scenarios that assume certain risks may materialize.
  - Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own country data when they return home.

### Key features and expectations for participants
- Hands-on model development and extension of the canonical DNK framework.
- Use of small semi-structural models for medium-term projection exercises.
- Scenario analysis focused on risks to the baseline forecast and policy responses.
- Requirement to complete preparatory online modules and in-person workshops to obtain certification.

---


## References

- [Blended Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)
- [Apply Now](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=JV27.34E)
- [Executive Training 2 on Fiscal Policy Considerations (FPA)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/fpcce26-16)
- [Tax Regional Workshop on Strategic Management](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/taxce26-43)
- [Institutional Sector Accounts-Advanced - Blended (ISA-A)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/hq/2027/isa-ahq27-02)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/jv/2027/mpafjv27-34_