## Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2023/ddtxol23-202)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2023/ddtxol23-202/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2023/ddtxol23-202/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2023/ddtxol23-202/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Session: OL 23.202
- Location: Course conducted online
- Dates: May 1, 2023 - April 15, 2024 (50 weeks)
- Delivery method: Online Training
- Primary language: French
- Status: Deadline passed

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### Program logistics and status
- Session No.: OL 23.202
- Location: Course conducted online
- Date: May 1, 2023 - April 15, 2024 (50 weeks)
- Delivery Method: Online Training
- Primary Language: French
- Status: Deadline passed
- Qualifications: Some knowledge of economics is helpful. Basic Microsoft Excel skills and access to a computer with a reliable internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser are essential.

### Target audience
- All government officials are welcome to register.
- Particularly useful for officials from:
  - ministries of finance
  - debt agencies
  - central banks
  - other government agencies responsible for implementing macroeconomic and debt policies

### Course description
- Presented by the Institute for Capacity Development.
- Two-module online course explaining how to project the stock of public debt over time for baseline (most likely) and alternative scenarios.
- Explains how to estimate the path of fiscal adjustments necessary to reach a pre-determined target level of debt.
- Introduces an easy-to-use Excel-based Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT) that:
  - uses projections of some 10 key macroeconomic and financial variables
  - provides public debt projections under baseline and stress test scenarios
  - produces fan charts that describe uncertainty about the evolution of debt over time in a probabilistic manner
  - identifies the main drivers of public debt changes
  - computes measures of fiscal adjustments necessary to achieve a public debt target during a certain period, as specified by the user

### Course objectives
- Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:
  - Compute public debt dynamics.
  - Identify the main drivers of public debt dynamics.
  - Compute measures of fiscal adjustments necessary to achieve a public debt target.
  - Conduct a stress test to public debt dynamics, including through the use of fan charts.
  - Identify the main components of a debt sustainability analysis to assess the risk of debt distress.

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## References

- [Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)
- [Institutional Sector Accounts-Advanced - Blended (ISA-A)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/hq/2027/isa-ahq27-02)
- [Core Elements of Banking Supervision (CBS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2027/cbsat27-10)
- [Advanced Government Finance Statistics (GFS-A)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/gfs-ace26-45)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2023/ddtxol23-202_