## Public Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty (DDUx)

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Public Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty (DDUx)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2023/dduxol23-137)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2023/dduxol23-137/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2023/dduxol23-137/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2023/dduxol23-137/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Session: OL 23.137
- Location: Course conducted online
- Dates: May 15, 2023 - April 15, 2024 (50 weeks)
- Delivery method: Online Training
- Primary language: English
- Status: Deadline passed

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### Course logistics and eligibility
- Session No.: OL 23.137
- Deadline: Deadline passed
- Date: May 15, 2023 - April 15, 2024 (50 weeks)
- Location: Course conducted online
- Delivery Method: Online Training
- Primary Language: English
- Target Audience:
  - All government officials are welcome to register.
  - Particularly useful for officials from ministries of finance, debt agencies, central banks, and other government agencies responsible for providing advice or implementing macroeconomic and debt policies.
- Qualifications:
  - Some knowledge of economics is helpful.
  - Basic Microsoft Excel skills and access to a computer with a reliable internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser are essential.

### Course description and core content
- Presented jointly by the Institute for Capacity Development and the Fiscal Affairs Department.
- Provides an overview of how to assess public debt dynamics under uncertainty.
- Discusses how to think about public debt projections when acknowledging uncertainty about key variables underlying debt projections, including:
  - GDP growth
  - interest and exchange rates
  - primary balances
- Teaches production and interpretation of fan charts (graphical tools used to describe uncertainty about the evolution of a variable over time).
- Presents the concepts of:
  - maximum debt limit (level of debt beyond which there could be significant negative consequences for the economy)
  - safe debt (a level of debt sufficiently below the debt limit to provide a comfortable and prudent buffer)
- Explains how to use fan charts to derive a safe level of debt and how to assess fiscal risks.

### Learning objectives (upon completion)
- Explain what a fan chart of debt is.
- Interpret a fan chart to identify risks to public debt dynamics.
- Understand how to produce fan charts through simple Monte Carlo simulations.
- Understand how to produce fan charts using VAR models and fiscal reaction functions.
- Understand the concept of safe debt and maximum debt limit.
- Evaluate debt dynamics under uncertainty.

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## References

- [Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)
- [Core Elements of Banking Supervision (CBS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2027/cbsat27-10)
- [Advanced Government Finance Statistics (GFS-A)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/gfs-ace26-45)
- [Fiscal Sustainability (FS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/fsce26-38)
- [Safeguards Assessments of Central Banks (SAC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2026/sacat26-30)
- [Macroeconomic Management in Resource Rich Countries (MRC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/mrcce26-44)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2023/dduxol23-137_