## Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2024/ddtxol24-126)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2024/ddtxol24-126/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2024/ddtxol24-126/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2024/ddtxol24-126/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Session: OL 24.126
- Location: Course conducted online
- Dates: January 1, 2024 - April 15, 2024 (15 weeks)
- Delivery method: Online Training
- Primary language: Spanish
- Status: Deadline passed

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### Target Audience and Qualifications
- Target Audience:
  - All government officials are welcome to register.
  - Particularly useful for officials from ministries of finance, debt agencies, central banks, and other government agencies responsible for implementing macroeconomic and debt policies.
- Qualifications and technical requirements:
  - Some knowledge of economics would be helpful.
  - Basic Microsoft Excel skills.
  - Access to a computer with a reliable internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser are essential.

### Course Description and Content
- Structure:
  - Two-module online course presented by the Institute for Capacity Development.
- Analytical focus:
  - Explains how to project the stock of public debt over time for baseline (most likely) and alternative scenarios.
  - Explains how to estimate the path of fiscal adjustments necessary to reach a pre-determined target level of debt.
- Tool and variables:
  - Teaches application of concepts using an easy-to-use Excel-based Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT).
  - Uses projections of some 10 key macroeconomic and financial variables.
- Outputs and functionalities of the DDT:
  - Provides public debt projections under baseline and stress test scenarios.
  - Produces fan charts that describe uncertainty about the evolution of debt over time in a probabilistic manner.
  - Identifies the main drivers of public debt changes.
  - Computes measures of fiscal adjustments necessary to achieve a public debt target during a certain period, as specified by the user.

### Course Objectives
Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:
- Compute public debt dynamics.
- Identify the main drivers of public debt dynamics.
- Compute measures of fiscal adjustments necessary to achieve a public debt target.
- Conduct a stress test to public debt dynamics, including through the use of fan charts.
- Identify the main components of a debt sustainability analysis to assess the risk of debt distress.

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## References

- [Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)
- [Core Elements of Banking Supervision (CBS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2027/cbsat27-10)
- [Advanced Government Finance Statistics (GFS-A)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/gfs-ace26-45)
- [Fiscal Sustainability (FS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/fsce26-38)
- [Safeguards Assessments of Central Banks (SAC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2026/sacat26-30)
- [Macroeconomic Management in Resource Rich Countries (MRC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/mrcce26-44)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2024/ddtxol24-126_