## Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2024/ddtxol24-143)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2024/ddtxol24-143/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2024/ddtxol24-143/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2024/ddtxol24-143/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Session: OL 24.143
- Location: Course conducted online
- Dates: May 1, 2024 - April 15, 2025 (50 weeks)
- Delivery method: Online Training
- Primary language: English
- Status: Deadline passed

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### Training program and prerequisites
- Presented by the Institute for Capacity Development.
- Some knowledge of economics is helpful.
- Basic Microsoft Excel skills and access to a computer with a reliable internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser are essential.

### Target audience
- All government officials are welcome to register.
- Particularly useful for officials from ministries of finance, debt agencies, central banks, and other government agencies responsible for implementing macroeconomic and debt policies.

### Course description
- Two-module online course explaining how to project the stock of public debt over time for baseline (most likely) and alternative scenarios.
- Introduces the underpinnings of public debt dynamics (i.e., the evolution of public debt over time).
- Explains application using an easy-to-use Excel-based Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT).
- Uses projections of some 10 key macroeconomic and financial variables to produce public debt projections under baseline and stress test scenarios.
- Produces fan charts that describe uncertainty about the evolution of debt over time in a probabilistic manner.
- Identifies the main drivers of public debt changes.
- Computes measures of fiscal adjustments necessary to achieve a user-specified public debt target within a certain period.

### Course objectives (learning outcomes)
Upon completion, participants should be able to:
- Compute public debt dynamics.
- Identify the main drivers of public debt dynamics.
- Compute measures of fiscal adjustments necessary to achieve a public debt target.
- Conduct a stress test to public debt dynamics, including through the use of fan charts.
- Identify the main components of a debt sustainability analysis to assess the risk of debt distress.

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## References

- [Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)
- [Core Elements of Banking Supervision (CBS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2027/cbsat27-10)
- [Advanced Government Finance Statistics (GFS-A)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/gfs-ace26-45)
- [Fiscal Sustainability (FS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/fsce26-38)
- [Safeguards Assessments of Central Banks (SAC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2026/sacat26-30)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2024/ddtxol24-143_