## Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx)

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2024/mpafxol24-123)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2024/mpafxol24-123/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2024/mpafxol24-123/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2024/mpafxol24-123/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Session: OL 24.123
- Location: Course conducted online
- Dates: January 1, 2024 - April 15, 2024 (15 weeks)
- Delivery method: Online Training
- Primary language: English
- Status: Deadline passed

---

### Course logistics and qualifications
- Session No.: OL 24.123
- Delivery Method: Online Training
- Location: Course conducted online
- Date: January 1, 2024 - April 15, 2024 (15 weeks)
- Primary Language: English
- Participants are expected to have a background in undergraduate macroeconomics, statistics, and econometrics.
- Participants are provided with guidance on how to access Matlab or Octave software.

### Target audience
- All government officials are welcome to register.
- The course is particularly well-suited for officials in central banks that are in the early stages of introducing Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems (FPAS) with IMF assistance.
- The course is offered in English.

### Course description — model content and technical focus
- Presents a semi-structural macroeconomic model often used as a core of FPAS at central banks.
- Demonstrates implementation of the key equations of a canonical quarterly projection model (QPM) in macroeconomic modeling software.
- Uses detailed country data highlighting an inflation targeting central bank for hands-on historical filtration, forecasting, and calibration exercises.
- Covers two main technical aspects:
  - Introduction to a canonical New Keynesian model structure and its key properties.
  - Implementation of the QPM in Matlab/Octave and application of IRIS toolbox for solving and maintaining the QPM, as well as forecasting with the QPM.

### Course objectives — competencies on completion
- Explain the key building blocks of a canonical semi-structural QPM.
- Interpret the key model equations from a macroeconomic point of view.
- Implement a simple QPM using a specialized software for macroeconomic modelling.
- Distinguish the key elements of a QPM in a state-space form (i.e., shocks, observable and unobservable variables, measurement and transition equations, steady-state parameters, equation coefficients).
- Identify necessary codes for data transformation, filtration and evaluation of the QPM properties.
- Apply the basic IRIS Toolbox functions for solving the model.
- Create output reports using model codes.
- Develop a basic calibration of the QPM.
- Produce a baseline forecast and alternative scenarios using the QPM.

---


## References

- [Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)
- [Core Elements of Banking Supervision (CBS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2027/cbsat27-10)
- [Advanced Government Finance Statistics (GFS-A)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/gfs-ace26-45)
- [Fiscal Sustainability (FS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/fsce26-38)
- [Safeguards Assessments of Central Banks (SAC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2026/sacat26-30)
- [Macroeconomic Management in Resource Rich Countries (MRC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/mrcce26-44)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2024/mpafxol24-123_