## Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/ddtxol26-123)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/ddtxol26-123/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/ddtxol26-123/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/ddtxol26-123/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Session: OL 26.123
- Location: Course conducted online
- Dates: May 1, 2026 - April 15, 2027 (50 weeks)
- Delivery method: Online Training
- Primary language: French
- Status: Apply online by April 1, 2027

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### Course logistics and eligibility
- Session No.: OL 26.123
- Location: Course conducted online
- Date: May 1, 2026 - April 15, 2027 (50 weeks)
- Delivery Method: Online Training
- Primary Language: French
- Target Audience:
  - Officials from ministries of finance
  - Debt agencies
  - Central banks
  - Other government agencies responsible for providing advice or implementing macroeconomic and debt policies
- Qualifications:
  - Some knowledge of economics would be helpful.
  - Basic Microsoft Excel skills are essential.

### Course description and analytical focus
- The course provides an overview of how to assess public debt dynamics under uncertainty.
- It discusses how to think about public debt projections when there is uncertainty about key underlying variables:
  - GDP growth
  - Interest rates
  - Exchange rates
  - Primary balances
- The course trains participants to produce and interpret fan charts (graphical tools used to describe uncertainty about the evolution of a variable over time).
- Concepts presented:
  - Maximum debt limit (level of debt beyond which there could be significant negative consequences for the economy)
  - Safe debt (a level of debt sufficiently below the debt limit to provide a comfortable and prudent buffer)
- The course explains how to:
  - Use fan charts to derive a safe level of debt
  - Assess fiscal risks

### Learning objectives and competencies
Upon completion of the course, participants should be able to:
- Project public debt.
- Identify the main drivers of public debt changes.
- Compute measures of fiscal adjustments consistent with a public debt target.
- Conduct a stress test to public debt projections, including through the use of fan charts.
- Identify the main components of a debt sustainability analysis to assess the risk of debt distress.

---


## References

- [Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)
- [Apply Now](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.123F)
- [Core Elements of Banking Supervision (CBS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2027/cbsat27-10)
- [Advanced Government Finance Statistics (GFS-A)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/gfs-ace26-45)
- [Fiscal Sustainability (FS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/fsce26-38)
- [Safeguards Assessments of Central Banks (SAC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2026/sacat26-30)
- [Macroeconomic Management in Resource Rich Countries (MRC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/mrcce26-44)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/ddtxol26-123_