## Public Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Public Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/dduxol26-128)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/dduxol26-128/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/dduxol26-128/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/dduxol26-128/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Session: OL 26.128
- Location: Course conducted online
- Dates: May 1, 2026 - April 15, 2027 (50 weeks)
- Delivery method: Online Training
- Primary language: English
- Status: Apply online by April 1, 2027

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### Target audience
- All government officials are welcome to register.
- Particularly useful for officials from ministries of finance, debt agencies, central banks, and other government agencies responsible for providing advice or implementing macroeconomic and debt policies.

### Course description — substantive content and methods
- Overview of how to assess public debt dynamics under uncertainty, presented jointly by the Institute for Capacity Development and the Fiscal Affairs Department.
- Discussion of how to think about public debt projections when acknowledging uncertainty about key underlying variables: GDP growth, interest and exchange rates, and primary balances.
- Instruction on producing and interpreting fan charts (graphical tools used to describe uncertainty about the evolution of a variable over time).
- Presentation of the concepts of:
  - maximum debt limit (level of debt beyond which there could be significant negative consequences for the economy), and
  - safe debt (a level of debt sufficiently below the debt limit to provide a comfortable and prudent buffer).
- Explanation of how to use fan charts to derive a safe level of debt and how to assess fiscal risks.

### Technical skills and analytical tools taught
- Produce fan charts through simple Monte Carlo simulations.
- Produce fan charts using VAR models and fiscal reaction functions.
- Evaluate debt dynamics under uncertainty.

### Course objectives (learning outcomes)
- Explain what a fan chart of debt is.
- Interpret a fan chart to identify risks to public debt dynamics.
- Understand how to produce fan charts through simple Monte Carlo simulations.
- Understand how to produce fan charts using VAR models and fiscal reaction functions.
- Understand the concept of safe debt and maximum debt limit.
- Evaluate debt dynamics under uncertainty.

---


## References

- [Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)
- [Apply Now](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.128E)
- [Core Elements of Banking Supervision (CBS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2027/cbsat27-10)
- [Advanced Government Finance Statistics (GFS-A)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/gfs-ace26-45)
- [Fiscal Sustainability (FS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/fsce26-38)
- [Safeguards Assessments of Central Banks (SAC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2026/sacat26-30)
- [Macroeconomic Management in Resource Rich Countries (MRC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/mrcce26-44)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/dduxol26-128_