## Revenue Forecasting and Analysis

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Revenue Forecasting and Analysis](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/rfaxol26-226)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/rfaxol26-226/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/rfaxol26-226/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/rfaxol26-226/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Session: OL 26.226
- Location: Course conducted online
- Dates: May 1, 2026 - April 15, 2027 (50 weeks)
- Delivery method: Online Training
- Primary language: Spanish
- Status: Apply online by April 1, 2027 Deadline extended

---

### Program overview
- Title: Revenue Forecasting and Analysis (RFAx)
- Session No.: OL 26.226
- Location: Course conducted online
- Date: May 1, 2026 - April 15, 2027 (50 weeks)
- Delivery Method: Online Training
- Primary Language: Spanish

### Target audience and qualifications
- Target audience:
  - Government officials working in ministries of finance or in revenue administrations who are charged with conducting revenue forecasts and/or assessing the revenue or distributional impact of tax policy changes.
- Qualifications:
  - Basic to intermediate understanding of tax policy.
  - Degree in economics or tax accountancy (ideally with some background in econometrics).
  - Proficiency in Microsoft Excel.

### Course description and focus
- Focuses on technical and institutional aspects of revenue forecasting and tax policy analysis.
- Provides an overview of quantitative methods required to forecast and evaluate revenue implications of changes in major taxes:
  - Personal income taxes
  - Corporate income taxes
  - Value added taxes
  - Excise taxes
  - International trade taxes
- Emphasizes the necessity of establishing a strong institutional framework to support the revenue forecasting process.
- Uses conceptual and practical approaches with hands-on activities, including quizzes and quantitative exercises with real fiscal data.

### Learning objectives
Upon completion of the course, participants should be able to:
- Describe the role of revenue forecasting in the budget-making process.
- Identify good practices relating to the institutional framework that supports the revenue forecasting process.
- Identify data requirements for each method of revenue forecasting.
- Apply macro-based models to forecast tax revenue.
- Apply input-output models and micro-simulation techniques to analyze the revenue and distributional implications from indirect and direct taxes.
- Recognize the strengths and limitations of different models.

### Skills, methods, and pedagogical elements
- Quantitative methods covered:
  - Macro-based forecasting models for tax revenue.
  - Input-output models for indirect tax analysis.
  - Micro-simulation techniques for direct tax and distributional analysis.
- Institutional and data requirements:
  - Identification of data needs specific to each forecasting method.
  - Discussion of good institutional practices to support forecasting processes.
- Pedagogy:
  - Hands-on activities, quizzes, and quantitative exercises using real fiscal data.

---


## References

- [Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)
- [Apply Now](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.226S)
- [Core Elements of Banking Supervision (CBS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2027/cbsat27-10)
- [Advanced Government Finance Statistics (GFS-A)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/gfs-ace26-45)
- [Fiscal Sustainability (FS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/fsce26-38)
- [Safeguards Assessments of Central Banks (SAC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2026/sacat26-30)
- [Macroeconomic Management in Resource Rich Countries (MRC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/mrcce26-44)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ol/2026/rfaxol26-226_