## Virtual : Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Virtual : Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/sa/2021/mpafsa21-48v)

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- [Markdown version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/sa/2021/mpafsa21-48v/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/sa/2021/mpafsa21-48v/index.json)
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## Bibliographic details
- Session: SA 21.48V
- Location: New Delhi, India
- Dates: December 6-17, 2021 (2 weeks)
- Delivery method: Virtual Training
- Primary language: English
- Status: Deadline passed

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### Target audience
- Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making.
- Staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.

### Qualifications and prerequisites
- Expected background: advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience.
- Strong recommendation: completed the Monetary Policy (MP) course or the online Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx) course.
- Technical comfort: participants are expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as EViews and Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required.

### Course description
- Presented by the Institute for Capacity Development.
- Provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian ("gap") models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting.
- Emphasizes analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.
- Provides tools to develop and/or extend the benchmark model to fit participants' monetary policy framework and selected features of their country's economy.

### Course objectives
- Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the shocks this economy may face.
- Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using the small semi-structural model.
- Conduct nowcasting and near-term forecasting using estimation-based econometric techniques supported by expert judgment.
- Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables e.g. output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
- Identify risks in the baseline forecast and draw up medium-term projections for alternative scenarios that assume that the risks materialize.
- Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis using their own national data when they return home.

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## References

- [Virtual Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)
- [Core Elements of Banking Supervision (CBS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2027/cbsat27-10)
- [Advanced Government Finance Statistics (GFS-A)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/gfs-ace26-45)
- [Fiscal Sustainability (FS)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/fsce26-38)
- [Safeguards Assessments of Central Banks (SAC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/at/2026/sacat26-30)
- [Macroeconomic Management in Resource Rich Countries (MRC)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/ce/2026/mrcce26-44)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/schedule/sa/2021/mpafsa21-48v_