## KYRGYZ REPUBLIC: Estimation of White (Light) Oil Reexport

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [KYRGYZ REPUBLIC: Estimation of White (Light) Oil Reexport](https://www.imf.org/en/data/statistics/informal-economy-data/reports/kyrgyz-estimation-of-white-light-oil-reexport)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/data/statistics/informal-economy-data/reports/kyrgyz-estimation-of-white-light-oil-reexport/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/data/statistics/informal-economy-data/reports/kyrgyz-estimation-of-white-light-oil-reexport/index.json)
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### Scope and Rationale
- The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic made a decision to carry out an additional estimation of light oil re-export due to increased incidence of informal oil exports across southern borders of Kyrgyzstan as a result of oil price difference with neighboring countries.
- The additional estimation is calculated as an average of 2 methods: balance method and method based on the volume of re-export proceeding from the number of vehicles.

### Estimation Framework and Key Formulas
- Rave = (R1+R2)/2  
  - Rave – The average of light oil products reexport based on 2 methods.
  - R1 – Balance method. The residue of light oil products’ volume which is not consumed is subsequently re-exported.
  - R2 – The method of calculation based on the volume of reexport according to the number of vehicles.
- Balance method formula (R1):  
  R1= Impm * (((Impv-A)*((∑Рv+∑Dv)/ Impv))/ Impv )
  - A – Conditional oil products market size in Kyrgyzstan;
  - Impv – Volume of oil imports and domestic production of petrol during the reporting period;
  - Impm – Value of oil imports and domestic production of petrol during the reporting period;
  - ∑Рv – Volume of car petrol imports and domestic production of petrol during the reporting period;
  - ∑Dv – Volume of diesel fuel imports and domestic production of diesel during the reporting period.
- Vehicle-based method formula (R2):  
  R2 = ((∑Рv - (QP*V)) *PrP) + ((∑Dv – (QD*V))*PrD)
  - ∑Dv – Volume of diesel fuel imports and domestic production of diesel during the reporting period;
  - V – Number of vehicles during the reporting period;
  - PrP – Car petrol price;
  - PrD – Diesel fuel price;
  - QP – Share of petrol consumption by 1 vehicle;
  - QD – Share of diesel fuel consumption by 1 vehicle.

### Data Sources and Compilation Practices
- Import – official statistics.
- Oil products market size – expert opinions.
- The estimation is derived by averaging two independent methodological approaches (balance-based and vehicle-based) to capture informal re-exports driven by cross-border price differentials.

### Linkages Across Statistical Domains
- Estimation is included in both balance of payments and national accounts statistics.

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## References

- [Informal Economy Reports](https://www.imf.org/en/data/statistics/informal-economy-data/reports)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/data/statistics/informal-economy-data/reports/kyrgyz-estimation-of-white-light-oil-reexport_