{
  "title": "NETHERLANDS: Measuring Illegal Drugs",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/data/statistics/informal-economy-data/reports/netherlands-measuring-illegal-drugs",
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  "summary": "Netherlands: Measuring Illegal Drugs <br />Informal Economy Reports Core Links Informal Economy Reports IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics <img src=\"-/media/7D248A26B4954639B904D8F8DA6255BC.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Introduction",
      "content": "- Separate estimates are made for production of drugs (cannabis and XTC/amphetamines) and trafficking of drugs for which no production in the Netherlands takes place (heroin and cocaine).\n- Values for 2015:\n  - Value of exports of cannabis: 3350 million euros.\n  - Value of exports of XTC/amphetamine: 175 million euros.\n  - Margin for the international trade in heroin and cocaine: 505 million euros."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Scope, Methodology, Compilation Practices, and Data Sources",
      "content": "- Estimation approach:\n  - Combination of demand- and supply-side based approaches.\n  - Domestic consumption estimated by combining number of users, average quantity used, and street price.\n  - Distinctions by drug type: heroin/cocaine, cannabis, XTC/amphetamine.\n  - For heroin/cocaine, further distinction by user type: heavy addicts and recreational users.\n- Price and seizure data sources:\n  - Price information for hard drugs (heroin/cocaine) from World Drug Report (UNODC).\n  - Price information for cannabis and XTC from the National Drugs Monitor by the Trimbos Institute.\n  - Seizure and national threat information from KLPD reports (e.g., KLPD, 2012 Nationaal dreigingsbeeld 2012).\n  - Confiscation and seizure data published annually by the UN (three-year moving average applied to dampen fluctuations).\n- Treatment of confiscated production capacity and sales:\n  - Confiscated capacity estimated from number of confiscated plants, crop per plant, and number of crops.\n  - Because confiscation occurs during the year, half of the confiscated capacity is assumed to have been sold prior to confiscation.\n  - Unknown stage-at-seizure of plants: assumed that half of confiscated plants concerned market-ready cannabis."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Cannabis — estimates and cost structure",
      "content": "- Volume and production assumptions:\n  - Total volume of domestic use estimated at 58 to 143 tons per year (KLPD, 2012).\n  - National accounts consumption estimate for 2015 assumes a volume of 100 tons.\n  - Of consumed volume, 90 per cent is domestically produced ‘nederwiet’ (KLPD, 2012).\n  - Operators of the electricity network estimate 25.000 active plantations annually.\n  - Annually 5000 plantations are dismantled giving a seizure rate of 20 per cent.\n  - Seizure rate for imports assumed to be 20 per cent.\n- Crop and yield parameters:\n  - Average revenue per crop per plant: 28,2 grams dry cannabis.\n  - A plant allows 4 crops per year.\n- Price and seizure smoothing:\n  - Price set equal to the most used variety (nederwiet) published annually in the National Drugs Monitor (Trimbos).\n  - Three-year moving average used for seizure quantities.\n- Cost structure and allocations:\n  - Share of costs of production (both intermediate consumption and fixed capital formation) mainly based on expert estimates.\n  - Distinction between production of cannabis and retail trade via coffee shops.\n  - Costs of trade via coffee shops set at 50 per cent of the trade margin.\n  - Costs of trade via other channels set at 30 per cent.\n  - For re-exports a rate of 10 per cent is applied.\n  - Costs for production estimated to be 40 per cent of the cost price.\n  - Cost price of production set at half the street price.\n- Aggregate cost estimates:\n  - Total costs for cannabis estimated at 1668 million euros, of which:\n    - 1137 million euros allocated to intermediate consumption.\n    - 531 million euros allocated to GFCF."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Heroin and cocaine — estimates and transformations",
      "content": "- Data sources and user segmentation:\n  - National Drug Monitor (Trimbos Institute) provides number of users distinguished between heavy addicts and recreational users.\n  - Price information from World Drug Report (UNODC).\n  - Confiscated amounts from World Drug Report (UN); three-year moving average applied.\n- Seizure rate and derivation:\n  - KLPD report does not provide seizure rates for heroin/cocaine; rate derived from a web article from Dutch broadcasting (NOS) based on criminal information and is estimated at 20 per cent.\n- User numbers and consumption intensities:\n  - Number of heavy addicts: 14.386.\n  - Number of recreational users: 49.803.\n  - Heavy addicts need 0.5 grams of heroin per day.\n  - Recreational users use 1 gram per week.\n  - Total estimated use: 5.22 million grams.\n- Import, export, and concentration adjustments:\n  - Volume of imports estimated using confiscated drugs and a seizure rate of 20 per cent.\n  - Exports estimated as a residual of imports and consumption of households.\n  - Adjustment for concentration: consumed heroin/cocaine is less concentrated than imported drugs; factor applied: 0.59 (to reduce imported cubic volumes).\n  - Assumption: half of exported heroin/cocaine concerns (quasi) transit trade and is not part of the Dutch economy.\n- Value and value added:\n  - Intermediate consumption estimated as 10 per cent of trade margins, separately for domestic consumption and exports, and amounts to 44 million euros.\n  - Resulting value added: 460 million euros."
    },
    {
      "heading": "XTC / amphetamines — production, users, and costs",
      "content": "- Production and seizure assumptions:\n  - Production estimated using confiscated XTC and a seizure rate of 20 per cent.\n  - Netherlands considered major producer of XTC; imports expected to be zero.\n- User prevalence and overlap:\n  - According to National Drugs Monitor 2015:\n    - XTC users: 0,7 per cent of the population between 15 and 65 years of age.\n    - Amphetamine users: 0.5 per cent of this population.\n    - Assumed overlap between users of XTC and amphetamines: 60 per cent.\n  - Average number of pills during a night: 1.3.\n  - Street price published annually in the National Drug Monitor.\n- Production costs and aggregates:\n  - Production cost of one XTC/amphetamine pill estimated at 0.15 euro (based on information from a web article of the NOS).\n  - Intermediate consumption estimated at 15 million euro (100.1  0.15).\n  - Resulting value added for XTC/amphetamines: 160 million euros."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Linkages Across Statistical Domains",
      "content": "- Compilation and reconciliation:\n  - Estimates compiled by National Accounts statisticians and shared with BoP.\n  - No differences between the imports/exports according to NA and BoP, including illegal activities."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Current Challenges and Conclusions",
      "content": "- Main challenge: collection of data because illegal activities cannot be directly observed by statisticians.\n- Some assumptions are based on older reports; preferable to update them every year.\n- For detailed calculations reference is made to the GNI inventory (for the revision year 2015) starting at page 343 onward."
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Separate estimates are made for production of drugs (cannabis and XTC/amphetamines) and trafficking of drugs for which no production in the Netherlands takes place (heroin and cocaine).",
    "Values for 2015:",
    "Estimation approach:",
    "Price and seizure data sources:",
    "Treatment of confiscated production capacity and sales:",
    "Volume and production assumptions:",
    "Crop and yield parameters:",
    "Price and seizure smoothing:",
    "Cost structure and allocations:",
    "Aggregate cost estimates:",
    "Data sources and user segmentation:",
    "Seizure rate and derivation:",
    "User numbers and consumption intensities:",
    "Import, export, and concentration adjustments:",
    "Value and value added:",
    "Production and seizure assumptions:",
    "User prevalence and overlap:",
    "Production costs and aggregates:",
    "Compilation and reconciliation:",
    "Main challenge: collection of data because illegal activities cannot be directly observed by statisticians.",
    "Some assumptions are based on older reports; preferable to update them every year.",
    "For detailed calculations reference is made to the GNI inventory (for the revision year 2015) starting at page 343 onward."
  ],
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  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-10-02T02:56:28.266Z"
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