## NETHERLANDS: Measuring Illegal Drugs

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [NETHERLANDS: Measuring Illegal Drugs](https://www.imf.org/en/data/statistics/informal-economy-data/reports/netherlands-measuring-illegal-drugs)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/data/statistics/informal-economy-data/reports/netherlands-measuring-illegal-drugs/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/data/statistics/informal-economy-data/reports/netherlands-measuring-illegal-drugs/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/data/statistics/informal-economy-data/reports/netherlands-measuring-illegal-drugs/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Volume: 90

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### Introduction
- Separate estimates are made for production of drugs (cannabis and XTC/amphetamines) and trafficking of drugs for which no production in the Netherlands takes place (heroin and cocaine).
- Values for 2015:
  - Value of exports of cannabis: 3350 million euros.
  - Value of exports of XTC/amphetamine: 175 million euros.
  - Margin for the international trade in heroin and cocaine: 505 million euros.

### Scope, Methodology, Compilation Practices, and Data Sources
- Estimation approach:
  - Combination of demand- and supply-side based approaches.
  - Domestic consumption estimated by combining number of users, average quantity used, and street price.
  - Distinctions by drug type: heroin/cocaine, cannabis, XTC/amphetamine.
  - For heroin/cocaine, further distinction by user type: heavy addicts and recreational users.
- Price and seizure data sources:
  - Price information for hard drugs (heroin/cocaine) from World Drug Report (UNODC).
  - Price information for cannabis and XTC from the National Drugs Monitor by the Trimbos Institute.
  - Seizure and national threat information from KLPD reports (e.g., KLPD, 2012 Nationaal dreigingsbeeld 2012).
  - Confiscation and seizure data published annually by the UN (three-year moving average applied to dampen fluctuations).
- Treatment of confiscated production capacity and sales:
  - Confiscated capacity estimated from number of confiscated plants, crop per plant, and number of crops.
  - Because confiscation occurs during the year, half of the confiscated capacity is assumed to have been sold prior to confiscation.
  - Unknown stage-at-seizure of plants: assumed that half of confiscated plants concerned market-ready cannabis.

### Cannabis — estimates and cost structure
- Volume and production assumptions:
  - Total volume of domestic use estimated at 58 to 143 tons per year (KLPD, 2012).
  - National accounts consumption estimate for 2015 assumes a volume of 100 tons.
  - Of consumed volume, 90 per cent is domestically produced ‘nederwiet’ (KLPD, 2012).
  - Operators of the electricity network estimate 25.000 active plantations annually.
  - Annually 5000 plantations are dismantled giving a seizure rate of 20 per cent.
  - Seizure rate for imports assumed to be 20 per cent.
- Crop and yield parameters:
  - Average revenue per crop per plant: 28,2 grams dry cannabis.
  - A plant allows 4 crops per year.
- Price and seizure smoothing:
  - Price set equal to the most used variety (nederwiet) published annually in the National Drugs Monitor (Trimbos).
  - Three-year moving average used for seizure quantities.
- Cost structure and allocations:
  - Share of costs of production (both intermediate consumption and fixed capital formation) mainly based on expert estimates.
  - Distinction between production of cannabis and retail trade via coffee shops.
  - Costs of trade via coffee shops set at 50 per cent of the trade margin.
  - Costs of trade via other channels set at 30 per cent.
  - For re-exports a rate of 10 per cent is applied.
  - Costs for production estimated to be 40 per cent of the cost price.
  - Cost price of production set at half the street price.
- Aggregate cost estimates:
  - Total costs for cannabis estimated at 1668 million euros, of which:
    - 1137 million euros allocated to intermediate consumption.
    - 531 million euros allocated to GFCF.

### Heroin and cocaine — estimates and transformations
- Data sources and user segmentation:
  - National Drug Monitor (Trimbos Institute) provides number of users distinguished between heavy addicts and recreational users.
  - Price information from World Drug Report (UNODC).
  - Confiscated amounts from World Drug Report (UN); three-year moving average applied.
- Seizure rate and derivation:
  - KLPD report does not provide seizure rates for heroin/cocaine; rate derived from a web article from Dutch broadcasting (NOS) based on criminal information and is estimated at 20 per cent.
- User numbers and consumption intensities:
  - Number of heavy addicts: 14.386.
  - Number of recreational users: 49.803.
  - Heavy addicts need 0.5 grams of heroin per day.
  - Recreational users use 1 gram per week.
  - Total estimated use: 5.22 million grams.
- Import, export, and concentration adjustments:
  - Volume of imports estimated using confiscated drugs and a seizure rate of 20 per cent.
  - Exports estimated as a residual of imports and consumption of households.
  - Adjustment for concentration: consumed heroin/cocaine is less concentrated than imported drugs; factor applied: 0.59 (to reduce imported cubic volumes).
  - Assumption: half of exported heroin/cocaine concerns (quasi) transit trade and is not part of the Dutch economy.
- Value and value added:
  - Intermediate consumption estimated as 10 per cent of trade margins, separately for domestic consumption and exports, and amounts to 44 million euros.
  - Resulting value added: 460 million euros.

### XTC / amphetamines — production, users, and costs
- Production and seizure assumptions:
  - Production estimated using confiscated XTC and a seizure rate of 20 per cent.
  - Netherlands considered major producer of XTC; imports expected to be zero.
- User prevalence and overlap:
  - According to National Drugs Monitor 2015:
    - XTC users: 0,7 per cent of the population between 15 and 65 years of age.
    - Amphetamine users: 0.5 per cent of this population.
    - Assumed overlap between users of XTC and amphetamines: 60 per cent.
  - Average number of pills during a night: 1.3.
  - Street price published annually in the National Drug Monitor.
- Production costs and aggregates:
  - Production cost of one XTC/amphetamine pill estimated at 0.15 euro (based on information from a web article of the NOS).
  - Intermediate consumption estimated at 15 million euro (100.1 * 0.15).
  - Resulting value added for XTC/amphetamines: 160 million euros.

### Linkages Across Statistical Domains
- Compilation and reconciliation:
  - Estimates compiled by National Accounts statisticians and shared with BoP.
  - No differences between the imports/exports according to NA and BoP, including illegal activities.

### Current Challenges and Conclusions
- Main challenge: collection of data because illegal activities cannot be directly observed by statisticians.
- Some assumptions are based on older reports; preferable to update them every year.
- For detailed calculations reference is made to the GNI inventory (for the revision year 2015) starting at page 343 onward.

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## References

- [Informal Economy Reports](https://www.imf.org/en/data/statistics/informal-economy-data/reports)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/data/statistics/informal-economy-data/reports/netherlands-measuring-illegal-drugs_