{
  "title": "Press Release: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2015 Article IV Consultation with Djibouti",
  "publication": "IMF News, December 28, 2015",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2015/09/14/01/49/pr15587",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2015/09/14/01/49/pr15587",
  "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2015/09/14/01/49/pr15587/index.md",
  "summary": "Selected time-series (est./proj. where provided) - Real GDP (annual change in percent): 2013: 5.0; 2014: 6.0; 2015: 6.5; 2016: 7.0 - Consumer prices (annual average): 2013: 2.4; 2014: 2.9; 2015: 2.7; 2016: 3.5; 2017: 3.0 - Total fixed capital investment (percent of GDP): 2013: 40.5; 2014: 44.1; 2015",
  "publishDate": "2015-12-28",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview and context",
      "content": "- Press Release No. 15/587; December 28, 2015.\n- On December 4, 2015, the Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation discussions with Djibouti and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting.\n- Djibouti strategy: developing infrastructure and port facilities to foster rapid growth and reduce poverty; growth driven by large investment projects but widespread poverty and unemployment persist; high external debt limits scope for additional borrowing."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Growth, inflation, and investment projections",
      "content": "- Aggregate investment reached 44 percent of GDP in 2014 and is expected to peak at 57 percent in 2015–16.\n- GDP growth:\n  - 2014: 6 percent\n  - 2015–16: about 6.5 percent\n  - 2017–19: 7 percent\n- Inflation:\n  - Projected at 3 percent in 2015\n  - About 3.5 percent in 2016–18\n- Infrastructure spending impact: expected to increase demand for housing and services and contribute to inflationary pressure."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal and external balance pressures",
      "content": "- Fiscal deficit (commitment basis, incl. grants):\n  - 2014: 12.2 percent of GDP\n  - 2015: projected 16.5 percent of GDP\n  - 2016: projected 11.4 percent of GDP (decline in tandem with investment profile)\n- Total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt:\n  - 2014: 60.5 percent of GDP (reflecting high non-concessional borrowing)\n  - Projected to peak at 80 percent in 2017\n- Current account deficit:\n  - 2014: 25.6 percent of GDP\n  - 2015: projected 31 percent of GDP (due to large capital goods imports)\n  - 2017–19: projected 14 percent of GDP after completion of large investment projects\n- Financing of deficit: loans and foreign direct investment (FDI)\n- Central bank gross foreign assets: projected to remain strong, permitting full currency board coverage over 2015–20."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector and monetary conditions",
      "content": "- Commercial banks’ non-performing loans: ratio of non-performing loans to total loans rose to more than 22 percent in June 2015.\n- Concerns: deterioration in loan portfolio and decline in return on equity.\n- Financial inclusion: access to financial services remains low despite increase in number of banks.\n- Planned measures: establishment of a credit guarantee fund and development of microfinance to promote financial inclusion.\n- Anti-money laundering/combating financing of terrorism: need to reinforce instruments."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and staff recommendations",
      "content": "- Strengthen public capacity to manage the investment program, including evaluation and monitoring of investment projects.\n- Prioritize proposed projects based on absorptive capacity and resource constraints; conduct cost-benefit analyses before undertaking projects.\n- Expedite reform of public enterprises that will manage large investment projects to improve efficiency, financial standing, commercial viability, and reduce contingent liabilities.\n- Caution on non-concessional financing:\n  - Urged to be cautious with additional borrowing and limit non-concessional borrowing.\n  - Enhance debt management capacity, including monitoring contingent liabilities.\n  - Improve coordination among government units responsible for contracting, monitoring, and servicing debt.\n- Tax reform:\n  - Commended June 2015 tax conference with broad stakeholder participation.\n  - Underscored need to design and implement comprehensive tax reform based on conference recommendations.\n  - Implement a simple and transparent tax regime that reduces tax exemptions and levels the playing field for all investors.\n- Banking sector:\n  - Strengthen banking supervision; adopt measures to address banks in difficulty.\n  - Expedite credit guarantee fund and microfinance development.\n- Competitiveness and structural measures:\n  - Currency board arrangement has served Djibouti well.\n  - Improve competitiveness by reducing cost of utilities and developing human capital.\n  - Prioritize projects that foster inclusive growth through job-creation and poverty reduction.\n  - Enhance measures to protect the poor.\n  - Diversify into labor-intensive sectors such as fishing and tourism for employment and inclusive growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key economic and financial indicators (selected, exact values preserved)",
      "content": "- Quota: SDR 15.9 million\n- Population: 0.939298 million; 2014\n- Per capita nominal GDP: $1,383; 2010\n- Poverty rate: 79 percent; 2012\n- Unemployment rate: 48.4 percent; 2012\n- Main export: Port-related services\n\nSelected time-series (est./proj. where provided)\n- Real GDP (annual change in percent): 2013: 5.0; 2014: 6.0; 2015: 6.5; 2016: 7.0\n- Consumer prices (annual average): 2013: 2.4; 2014: 2.9; 2015: 2.7; 2016: 3.5; 2017: 3.0\n- Total fixed capital investment (percent of GDP): 2013: 40.5; 2014: 44.1; 2015: 60.1; 2016: 53.6; 2017: 33.4; 2018: 30.9; 2019: 27.0; 2020: 26.6\n  - Private: 2013: 26.9; 2014: 24.0; 2015: 30.0; 2016: 28.7; 2017: 20.2; 2018: 19.3; 2019: 17.8\n  - Public1/: 2013: 13.7; 2014: 30.1; 2015: 24.9; 2016: 13.2; 2017: 11.6; 2018: 9.2; 2019: 8.8\n- Gross national savings (percent of GDP): 2013: 17.3; 2014: 18.5; 2015: 29.1; 2016: 27.8; 2017: 18.6; 2018: 16.4; 2019: 14.4; 2020: 13.6\n- Savings/investment balance (percent of GDP): 2013: -23.3; 2014: -25.6; 2015: -31.0; 2016: -25.8; 2017: -14.8; 2018: -14.5; 2019: -12.6; 2020: -13.1\n- Total revenue and grants (percent of GDP): 2013: 31.8; 2014: 37.1; 2015: 36.2; 2016: 33.9; 2017: 29.4; 2018: 28.3; 2019: 27.2\n  - Tax revenue (percent of GDP): 2013: 19.8; 2014: 18.7; 2015: 18.1; 2016: 17.6\n- Expenditure and net lending (percent of GDP): 2013: 37.7; 2014: 43.1; 2015: 47.6; 2016: 35.1; 2017: 32.3; 2018: 29.0; 2019: 27.3\n  - Current expenditure (percent of GDP): 2013: 22.9; 2014: 23.5; 2015: 22.8; 2016: 21.9; 2017: 20.8\n- Overall balance (commitment basis, incl. grants, percent of GDP): 2013: -5.9; 2014: -12.2; 2015: -16.5; 2016: -11.4; 2017: -1.2; 2018: -3.0; 2019: -0.7; 2020: -0.1\n- Overall balance (cash basis, incl grants, percent of GDP): 2013: -6.9; 2014: -12.7; 2015: -17.0; 2016: -11.9; 2017: -1.6; 2018: -3.4; 2019: -1.1\n- Overall balance (excluding grants, percent of GDP): 2013: -10.3; 2014: -16.8; 2015: -24.2; 2016: -19.7; 2017: -8.6; 2018: -7.2; 2019: -4.8; 2020: -3.9\n- Claims on the private sector (change): 2013: 15.6; 2014: 8.6; 2015: 12.0; 2016: 14.0; 2017: 16.0; 2018: 18.0\n- Broad money (percent change): 2013: 6.9; 2014: 9.4; 2015: 10.2; 2016: 10.7; 2017: 10.4\n- Exports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars): 2013: 485; 2014: 511; 2015: 601; 2016: 642; 2017: 684; 2018: 741; 2019: 800; 2020: 870\n- Imports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars): 2013: -913; 2014: -1022; 2015: -1318; 2016: -1325; 2017: -1173; 2018: -1203; 2019: -1249; 2020: -1339\n- Balance of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars): 2013: -428; 2014: -511; 2015: -718; 2016: -683; 2017: -489; 2018: -462; 2019: -449; 2020: -468\n- FDI (in percent of GDP): 2013: 19.7; 2014: 9.1; 2015: 8.5; 2016: 9.7; 2017: 9.8; 2018: 10.8\n- Stock of external public and publicly guaranteed debt (in millions of U.S. dollars): 2013: 704; 2014: 833; 2015: 1142; 2016: 1506; 2017: 1689; 2018: 1838; 2019: 1901; 2020: 1937\n- Stock of external public and publicly guaranteed debt (in percent of GDP): 2013: 48.4; 2014: 52.5; 2015: 65.7; 2016: 78.7; 2017: 79.6; 2018: 78.3; 2019: 73.5; 2020: 68.6\n- Gross official reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars): 2013: 411; 2014: 381; 2015: 350; 2016: 399; 2017: 476; 2018: 495; 2019: 479; 2020: 460\n  - In months of next year's imports of goods and services: 2013: 4.8; 2014: 3.2; 2015: 4.7; 2016: 4.3; 2017: 3.7\n- Gross foreign assets of commercial banks (in millions of U.S. dollars): 2013: 835; 2014: 903; 2015: 958; 2016: 1015; 2017: 1076; 2018: 1140; 2019: 1209; 2020: 1281\n  - In months of imports of goods and services: 2013: 8.2; 2014: 8.7; 2015: 11.0\n- Nominal GDP (in millions of Djibouti francs): 2013: 258,658; 2014: 282,228; 2015: 308,688; 2016: 340,260; 2017: 376,820; 2018: 417,310; 2019: 459,917; 2020: 502,137\n- Currency board cover (in percent): 2013: 107; 2014: 110; 2015: 109\n- Private credit to GDP (in percent): 2013: 32.4; 2014: 32.9; 2015: 34.1; 2016: 34.9; 2017: 36.3; 2018: 38.4; 2019: 40.8; 2020: 42.8\n- Exchange rate (DF/US$) end-of-period: 2013: 177.7\n- Real effective exchange rate (yearly average, 2005=100): 2013: 95.8; 2014: 96.4; 2015: 102.3\n  - Change in percent (depreciation -): 2013: 0.3; 2014: 0.5; 2015: 6.2\n- Population (million): 2013: 0.913714; 2014: 0.939298; 2015: 0.965598; 2016: 0.992635; 2017: 1.02043; 2018: 1.04900; 2019: 1.07837; 2020: 1.10857\n\nSource: Press Release No. 15/587, IMF Communications Department, December 28, 2015.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Pr15587apdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Djibouti and the IMF\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2015/09/14/01/49/pr15587"
    }
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    "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2015/09/14/01/49/pr15587/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2015/09/14/01/49/pr15587/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: December 28, 2015",
    "Press Release No. 15/587; December 28, 2015.",
    "On December 4, 2015, the Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation discussions with Djibouti and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting.",
    "Djibouti strategy: developing infrastructure and port facilities to foster rapid growth and reduce poverty; growth driven by large investment projects but widespread poverty and unemployment persist; high external debt limits scope for additional borrowing.",
    "Aggregate investment reached 44 percent of GDP in 2014 and is expected to peak at 57 percent in 2015–16.",
    "GDP growth:",
    "Inflation:",
    "Infrastructure spending impact: expected to increase demand for housing and services and contribute to inflationary pressure.",
    "Fiscal deficit (commitment basis, incl. grants):",
    "Total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt:",
    "Current account deficit:",
    "Financing of deficit: loans and foreign direct investment (FDI)",
    "Central bank gross foreign assets: projected to remain strong, permitting full currency board coverage over 2015–20.",
    "Commercial banks’ non-performing loans: ratio of non-performing loans to total loans rose to more than 22 percent in June 2015.",
    "Concerns: deterioration in loan portfolio and decline in return on equity.",
    "Financial inclusion: access to financial services remains low despite increase in number of banks.",
    "Planned measures: establishment of a credit guarantee fund and development of microfinance to promote financial inclusion.",
    "Anti-money laundering/combating financing of terrorism: need to reinforce instruments.",
    "Strengthen public capacity to manage the investment program, including evaluation and monitoring of investment projects.",
    "Prioritize proposed projects based on absorptive capacity and resource constraints; conduct cost-benefit analyses before undertaking projects.",
    "Expedite reform of public enterprises that will manage large investment projects to improve efficiency, financial standing, commercial viability, and reduce contingent liabilities.",
    "Caution on non-concessional financing:",
    "Tax reform:",
    "Banking sector:",
    "Competitiveness and structural measures:",
    "Quota: SDR 15.9 million",
    "Population: 0.939298 million; 2014",
    "Per capita nominal GDP: $1,383; 2010",
    "Poverty rate: 79 percent; 2012",
    "Unemployment rate: 48.4 percent; 2012",
    "Main export: Port-related services",
    "Real GDP (annual change in percent): 2013: 5.0; 2014: 6.0; 2015: 6.5; 2016: 7.0",
    "Consumer prices (annual average): 2013: 2.4; 2014: 2.9; 2015: 2.7; 2016: 3.5; 2017: 3.0",
    "Total fixed capital investment (percent of GDP): 2013: 40.5; 2014: 44.1; 2015: 60.1; 2016: 53.6; 2017: 33.4; 2018: 30.9; 2019: 27.0; 2020: 26.6",
    "Gross national savings (percent of GDP): 2013: 17.3; 2014: 18.5; 2015: 29.1; 2016: 27.8; 2017: 18.6; 2018: 16.4; 2019: 14.4; 2020: 13.6",
    "Savings/investment balance (percent of GDP): 2013: -23.3; 2014: -25.6; 2015: -31.0; 2016: -25.8; 2017: -14.8; 2018: -14.5; 2019: -12.6; 2020: -13.1",
    "Total revenue and grants (percent of GDP): 2013: 31.8; 2014: 37.1; 2015: 36.2; 2016: 33.9; 2017: 29.4; 2018: 28.3; 2019: 27.2",
    "Expenditure and net lending (percent of GDP): 2013: 37.7; 2014: 43.1; 2015: 47.6; 2016: 35.1; 2017: 32.3; 2018: 29.0; 2019: 27.3",
    "Overall balance (commitment basis, incl. grants, percent of GDP): 2013: -5.9; 2014: -12.2; 2015: -16.5; 2016: -11.4; 2017: -1.2; 2018: -3.0; 2019: -0.7; 2020: -0.1",
    "Overall balance (cash basis, incl grants, percent of GDP): 2013: -6.9; 2014: -12.7; 2015: -17.0; 2016: -11.9; 2017: -1.6; 2018: -3.4; 2019: -1.1",
    "Overall balance (excluding grants, percent of GDP): 2013: -10.3; 2014: -16.8; 2015: -24.2; 2016: -19.7; 2017: -8.6; 2018: -7.2; 2019: -4.8; 2020: -3.9",
    "Claims on the private sector (change): 2013: 15.6; 2014: 8.6; 2015: 12.0; 2016: 14.0; 2017: 16.0; 2018: 18.0",
    "Broad money (percent change): 2013: 6.9; 2014: 9.4; 2015: 10.2; 2016: 10.7; 2017: 10.4",
    "Exports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars): 2013: 485; 2014: 511; 2015: 601; 2016: 642; 2017: 684; 2018: 741; 2019: 800; 2020: 870",
    "Imports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars): 2013: -913; 2014: -1022; 2015: -1318; 2016: -1325; 2017: -1173; 2018: -1203; 2019: -1249; 2020: -1339",
    "Balance of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars): 2013: -428; 2014: -511; 2015: -718; 2016: -683; 2017: -489; 2018: -462; 2019: -449; 2020: -468",
    "FDI (in percent of GDP): 2013: 19.7; 2014: 9.1; 2015: 8.5; 2016: 9.7; 2017: 9.8; 2018: 10.8",
    "Stock of external public and publicly guaranteed debt (in millions of U.S. dollars): 2013: 704; 2014: 833; 2015: 1142; 2016: 1506; 2017: 1689; 2018: 1838; 2019: 1901; 2020: 1937",
    "Stock of external public and publicly guaranteed debt (in percent of GDP): 2013: 48.4; 2014: 52.5; 2015: 65.7; 2016: 78.7; 2017: 79.6; 2018: 78.3; 2019: 73.5; 2020: 68.6",
    "Gross official reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars): 2013: 411; 2014: 381; 2015: 350; 2016: 399; 2017: 476; 2018: 495; 2019: 479; 2020: 460",
    "Gross foreign assets of commercial banks (in millions of U.S. dollars): 2013: 835; 2014: 903; 2015: 958; 2016: 1015; 2017: 1076; 2018: 1140; 2019: 1209; 2020: 1281",
    "Nominal GDP (in millions of Djibouti francs): 2013: 258,658; 2014: 282,228; 2015: 308,688; 2016: 340,260; 2017: 376,820; 2018: 417,310; 2019: 459,917; 2020: 502,137",
    "Currency board cover (in percent): 2013: 107; 2014: 110; 2015: 109",
    "Private credit to GDP (in percent): 2013: 32.4; 2014: 32.9; 2015: 34.1; 2016: 34.9; 2017: 36.3; 2018: 38.4; 2019: 40.8; 2020: 42.8",
    "Exchange rate (DF/US$) end-of-period: 2013: 177.7",
    "Real effective exchange rate (yearly average, 2005=100): 2013: 95.8; 2014: 96.4; 2015: 102.3",
    "Population (million): 2013: 0.913714; 2014: 0.939298; 2015: 0.965598; 2016: 0.992635; 2017: 1.02043; 2018: 1.04900; 2019: 1.07837; 2020: 1.10857",
    "[Pr15587apdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported/external/arabic/np/sec/pr/2015/pr15587apdf.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "[Djibouti and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/DJI/index.htm)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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