## IMF Survey: IMF Develops New Template for Labor Market Analysis

_IMF News, September 24, 2012_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [IMF Survey: IMF Develops New Template for Labor Market Analysis](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sores092412a)

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- [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sores092412a/index.md)
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## Bibliographic details
- Published: September 24, 2012

---

### Context and urgency
- Publication: IMF Survey, September 24, 2012.
- Motivation: Unprecedented high and persistent unemployment globally has called for strengthened analysis of labor markets within macroeconomic surveillance.
- Global labor market statistics cited:
  - "Total world unemployment is expected to reach 202 million in 2012, up from 196 million in 2011."
  - "Youth unemployment is forecast to reach 75 million this year."

### New template — purpose and scope
- Purpose:
  - Provides country teams with a user-friendly and flexible framework to analyze and project key labor market indicators.
  - Translates growth forecasts into unemployment forecasts to better structure discussions with authorities.
- Scope:
  - Flexible and customizable to country data and macro-assumptions.
  - Designed to be applied across countries and regions, with particular motivation from persistently high unemployment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

### Methodology and analytical features
- Estimation approaches:
  - Draws on econometric analysis of the relationship between unemployment and growth to produce employment-growth elasticities.
  - Estimation methodologies include both panel data and individual time-series approaches.
  - Allows users to obtain estimates applicable to a group of benchmark countries or country-specific elasticities.
- Scenario analysis and outputs:
  - Produces and completes a table of labor market outcomes under various scenarios.
  - Includes a scenario that computes the average growth needed to reach an unemployment rate target.
  - Includes a scenario that gives the required growth path for absorbing future entrants into the labor market.
  - Produces charts such as:
    - A fan chart plotting different projections for employment growth.
    - A chart showing four possible unemployment rate paths over the projection period using different parameters.
- User inputs:
  - Requires user-provided inputs to generate scenario tables and charts.

### Use in IMF work and engagement
- Adoption:
  - The template has been used by numerous country teams in their bilateral surveillance work.
  - Offers the first standardized, forward-looking tool for assessing labor market developments within IMF surveillance.
- Practical benefits:
  - Enables more effective engagement with authorities by translating macro forecasts into labor market outcomes.

### Ongoing development and refinements
- Areas of continued refinement and user feedback include:
  - How to deal with missing data.
  - Enhanced estimation techniques.
  - Differentiation of short- versus long-term links between growth and employment.
- Personnel note:
  - IMF Deputy Managing Director Min Zhu and Research Department Advisor Prakash Loungani were present at the launch of the labor market template.

*IMF Survey: IMF Develops New Template for Labor Market Analysis, September 24, 2012.*

---


## References

- [https://www.imf.org/en/News/country-focus](https://www.imf.org/en/News/country-focus)
- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
- [IMF Research](https://www.imf.org/en/news/search)
- [Jobs and growth webpage](https://www.imf.org/external/np/res/jobs/index.htm)
- [Research at the IMF](https://www.imf.org/external/research/index.aspx)
- [Blog: Jobs and growth](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2012/04/30/jobs-and-growth-cant-have-one-without-the-other/)
- [Blog: Tackling jobs crisis](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2012/07/23/tackling-the-job-crisis-whats-to-be-done/)
- [Youth in the balance](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2012/03/bloom.htm)
- [Scarred generation](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2012/03/morsy.htm)
- [Get the template](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/tnm/2012/data/tnm1201.zip)
- [youth unemployment](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2012/03/index.htm)
- [Middle East and North Africa](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2012/05/18/why-the-arab-world-needs-an-economic-spring/)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sores092412a_