{
  "title": "Seizing India’s Moment, by Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director",
  "publication": "IMF News, March 16, 2015",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sp031615",
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  "summary": "Speech delivered at Lady Shri Ram College, New Delhi, March 16, 2015.",
  "authors": [
    "Christine Lagarde Managing Director"
  ],
  "publishDate": "2015-03-16",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Introduction",
      "content": "- Speech delivered at Lady Shri Ram College, New Delhi, March 16, 2015.  \n- Emphasis on India’s moment: demographic dividend, technological and cultural leadership, and potential to shape global growth.  \n- Three-part outline presented:\n  - Tour of the global economy and how to inject greater momentum.\n  - Assessment of India’s economy and readiness to “fly higher.”\n  - Discussion of quality of growth and benefits for the poor, women, and youth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "State of the global economy—injecting greater momentum",
      "content": "- Current global recovery characterized as “too slow, too brittle, and too lopsided.”\n- IMF global growth forecasts preserved:\n  - 3.5 percent — expected global growth this year.\n  - 3.7 percent — expected global growth next year.\n- Major risks identified:\n  - “Asynchronous monetary policy” in advanced economies, with potential for excessive financial market volatility, including in India.\n  - Euro Area and Japan may remain in a prolonged “low growth-low inflation” state, raising recession and deflation risks.\n  - Emerging markets could face a triple hit: a stronger U.S. dollar, higher global interest rates, and more volatile capital flows; note that many banks and companies increased dollar borrowing over the past five years.\n  - Geopolitical tensions as compounding risks.\n- Policy recommendations to restore momentum:\n  - Coordinated policies: accommodative monetary policies where appropriate; growth- and job-friendly fiscal adjustment; structural reforms to lift employment and growth.\n  - Use lower oil prices to cut energy subsidies and reallocate savings to targeted cash transfer systems—India example: some fuel subsidies replaced with cash transfers via the Aadhar system."
    },
    {
      "heading": "India tomorrow—ready to fly?",
      "content": "- India characterized as a bright spot amid a cloudy global horizon due to recent policy reforms and improved business confidence.\n- IMF growth projections for India:\n  - 7.2 percent — growth expected this fiscal year.\n  - 7.5 percent — growth expected next year.\n- Structural and size-related projections and facts:\n  - By 2019, the economy will more than double in size compared to 2009.\n  - When adjusted for purchase price differences, India’s GDP will exceed that of Japan and Germany combined.\n  - Indian output will exceed the combined output of Russia, Brazil, and Indonesia.\n- Demographics and labor force:\n  - More than 50 percent — share of India’s population currently below the age of 25.\n  - More than 12 million — people entering the labor market every year.\n  - By 2030, India is expected to have the largest labor force in the world.\n  - At more than one billion people of working age — India’s projected working-age population.\n- Policy frameworks highlighted as critical:\n  - Fiscal policy: explicit medium-term consolidation path; recent Budget's emphasis on infrastructure spending is positive; further subsidy reform and implementation of the goods and services tax recommended.\n  - Monetary policy: adoption of flexible inflation targeting welcomed to maintain price stability.\n  - Financial sector: need for banks with strong balance sheets; higher capital injections and improved operational efficiency recommended; fiscal consolidation can help banks reorient from government securities to private lending."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Making India’s growth more inclusive",
      "content": "- Overarching aim: ensure high growth translates into improved well-being, opportunity for traditionally excluded groups, and sustainability.\n\n- (i) Unleashing the potential of women\n  - Key statistics from IMF study “Women Workers in India: Why So Few Among So Many?”:\n    - 33 percent — India’s female labor force participation rate.\n    - 50 percent — global average female labor force participation rate.\n    - 63 percent — East Asia average female labor force participation rate.\n    - 125 million — number of working-age Indian females currently part of the labor force.\n    - 380 million — total working-age Indian females.\n    - 52 percent — India’s gender participation gap (difference between male and female labor force participation).\n    - Declining — India’s female labor force participation rate has been on a declining trend since 2005.\n  - Policy recommendations:\n    - Remove legal and institutional barriers to facilitate women’s entry into the labor market.\n    - Increase labor market flexibility to allow movement from informal to formal sector.\n    - Support campaigns and policies promoting education and safety for girls and women.\n\n- (ii) Increasing financial inclusion\n  - Achievements and figures:\n    - Under Jan Dhan Yojana, financial services extended to more than 125 million previously unbanked individuals.\n  - Policy recommendations:\n    - Use financial inclusion to deliver targeted cash transfers.\n    - Expand access of small and medium enterprises to the formal financial system to boost investment and jobs.\n\n- (iii) Investing in infrastructure\n  - Need and scale:\n    - By some estimates, an additional US$1 trillion in infrastructure investment is required over the medium-term.\n  - Constraints and reforms needed:\n    - Crowd in private investment through resolving public-private partnership issues.\n    - Ease land acquisition, expedite clearances, and establish a stable regulatory regime to reduce delays from regulatory uncertainty and bureaucratic holdups."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Conclusion",
      "content": "- Mutual need: “the world needs a vibrant India and India needs the world.”\n- With growing economic size and power come expectations of greater leadership in global fora such as the G-20 and the IMF.\n- IMF commitment: working on reforms to lift India to the top 10 shareholders at the IMF.\n- Closing exhortation: India’s elements are aligned to become a global powerhouse — “This is India’s moment. Seize it. Chak De India!”\n\nSeizing India’s Moment, Christine Lagarde — Lady Shri Ram College, New Delhi, March 16, 2015.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Wp1555pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- India and the IMF\n- People's Republic of China and the IMF\n- Japan and the IMF\n- United States and the IMF\n- United Kingdom and the IMF\n- Speeches\n- Christine Lagarde\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sp031615"
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    "Authors: Christine Lagarde Managing Director",
    "Published: March 16, 2015",
    "Speech delivered at Lady Shri Ram College, New Delhi, March 16, 2015.",
    "Emphasis on India’s moment: demographic dividend, technological and cultural leadership, and potential to shape global growth.",
    "Three-part outline presented:",
    "Current global recovery characterized as “too slow, too brittle, and too lopsided.”",
    "IMF global growth forecasts preserved:",
    "Major risks identified:",
    "Policy recommendations to restore momentum:",
    "India characterized as a bright spot amid a cloudy global horizon due to recent policy reforms and improved business confidence.",
    "IMF growth projections for India:",
    "Structural and size-related projections and facts:",
    "Demographics and labor force:",
    "Policy frameworks highlighted as critical:",
    "Overarching aim: ensure high growth translates into improved well-being, opportunity for traditionally excluded groups, and sustainability.",
    "(i) Unleashing the potential of women",
    "(ii) Increasing financial inclusion",
    "(iii) Investing in infrastructure",
    "Mutual need: “the world needs a vibrant India and India needs the world.”",
    "With growing economic size and power come expectations of greater leadership in global fora such as the G-20 and the IMF.",
    "IMF commitment: working on reforms to lift India to the top 10 shareholders at the IMF.",
    "Closing exhortation: India’s elements are aligned to become a global powerhouse — “This is India’s moment. Seize it. Chak De India!”",
    "[Wp1555pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/_wp1555pdf.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}",
    "[India and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/IND/index.htm)",
    "[People's Republic of China and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/CHN/index.htm)",
    "[Japan and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/JPN/index.htm)",
    "[United States and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/USA/index.htm)",
    "[United Kingdom and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/GBR/index.htm)",
    "[Speeches](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[Christine Lagarde](https://www.imf.org/external/np/omd/bios/cl.htm)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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