{
  "title": "Transcript of African Department Press Briefing",
  "publication": "IMF News, April 15, 2016",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/54/tr041516a",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/54/tr041516a",
  "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/54/tr041516a/index.md",
  "summary": "Growth for sub-Saharan Africa fell to 3.5 percent in 2015, \"the lowest level in some 15 years.\"",
  "publishDate": "2016-04-15",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Regional performance and outlook",
      "content": "- Growth for sub-Saharan Africa fell to 3.5 percent in 2015, \"the lowest level in some 15 years.\"\n- Projected growth for the region in 2016: \"about three percent.\"\n- Both 2015 and 2016: \"GDP per capita growth will be below one percent.\"\n- Medium-term prospects: \"drivers of growth ... over the last decade generally continue to be in place,\" notably \"the much-improved business environment and favorable demographics.\"\n- Semiannual Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa to be published on May 3; launch events in Kampala and Abidjan."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key shocks and transmission channels",
      "content": "- Commodity-price shock:\n  - Oil prices remain \"more than 60 percent below their 2013 peak levels.\"\n  - Oil exporters (Nigeria, Angola, most CEMAC countries) facing \"particularly difficult economic conditions.\"\n  - Forecast for the region's oil exporters: growth slowing to 2.5 percent in 2016 from 6 percent in 2014.\n  - Non-energy commodity exporters affected: Ghana, South Africa, Zambia.\n- External financing:\n  - \"For most of the region's frontier markets, external financing conditions have tightened substantially, compared to the period until mid-2014.\"\n- Weather shock:\n  - \"Several Southern and Eastern African countries, including Ethiopia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe, are suffering from a severe drought\" with food-security risk."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Country-specific developments and assessments",
      "content": "- Mozambique:\n  - Authorities confirmed \"the existence of a large amount of borrowing that had not previously been disclosed to the IMF.\"\n  - The \"undisclosed borrowing exceeds $1 billion and significantly changes our assessment of Mozambique's macroeconomic outlook.\"\n  - Known lenders identified so far: Credit Suisse and VTB Bank.\n  - IMF mission for reviews (policy support instrument and standby credit facility) cancelled \"pending a full disclosure and assessment of the facts.\"\n- Angola:\n  - Oil dependence: \"95 percent of its exports on oil and 70 percent of government revenues.\"\n  - Angola made a formal request in March for a \"three year program under the extended fund financing facility\"; discussions and a mission expected to follow.\n- Nigeria:\n  - Growth decline: \"Growth has ... come down, considerably in Nigeria, to some 2.5 percent or so, last year, from what used to be closer to 6 percent.\"\n  - Revenue-to-GDP ratio: \"only about 7.5 percent.\"\n  - Policy observations:\n    - Authorities are focused on governance and expanding non-oil revenues.\n    - Exchange-rate measures: initial devaluation followed by administrative restrictions on foreign exchange access; IMF notes these restrictions \"have been detrimental\" and are \"at odds with Nigeria's commitments as an IMF member country in terms of exchange restrictions.\"\n    - Monetary policy: \"recent increase in the policy rate\" noted as encouraging.\n- Ghana:\n  - IMF view: \"we have been quite satisfied and encouraged with the implementation of the program in Ghana.\"\n  - Fiscal performance: \"the government has made quite an effort to stick with the targets under the program and the fiscal is on track.\"\n  - Debt management: sovereign bond issuance increased financing costs but was \"consistent with the debt management strategy\" given domestic financing was more expensive at the time.\n- Zambia:\n  - Authorities expressed interest in an IMF-supported program; preparatory work underway.\n  - Full preparation of a program expected \"in the fourth quarter of this year, after the elections in Zambia.\"\n  - IMF advice: contain a \"huge fiscal deficit,\" adjust spending (current spending and wage bill), and prioritize \"high quality investments.\"\n- South Africa:\n  - Growth outlook: IMF estimate \"about 0.6 percent in growth this year.\"\n  - Challenges: commodity-price declines (platinum and others), rebalancing in China, electricity constraints, structural reforms needed (product-market competition, labor market, education and skills).\n  - Fiscal stance: recent budget seeks to \"balance the needs to make sure that macro-stability prevails, but at the same time also trying to mitigate the impact on growth.\"\n  - Market confidence affected by political developments (Finance Minister changes in December; subsequent appointment of Minister Gordhan).\n- Cameroon:\n  - Debt sustainability: status changed to \"high risk of debt distress\" following recent non-concessional borrowing, including a sovereign bond issued at \"very elevated rates.\"\n  - IMF/World Bank advice: streamline investment program and seek more concessional financing to sustain debt levels."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations and priorities",
      "content": "- For commodity exporters:\n  - \"Respond to the lower export earnings and budgetary revenues promptly and robustly, to prevent a disorderly adjustment.\"\n  - Contain fiscal deficits and \"build a sustainable tax base from the rest of the economy.\"\n- For countries outside monetary unions:\n  - \"Exchange rate flexibility as part of a wider macroeconomic policy package should also be part of the first line of defense.\"\n- For market-access countries with elevated deficits:\n  - Adjust fiscal policies to \"rebuild scarce buffers and mitigate vulnerabilities.\"\n- On borrowing and transparency:\n  - Any undisclosed debt-related transactions \"need to be reported transparently and publicly\" to ensure accountability and allow accurate macroeconomic assessment.\n- On growth-supporting policies:\n  - Combine fiscal, monetary, and exchange-rate policies coherently with structural reforms to support recovery and inclusive growth.\n\nTranscript of African Department Press Briefing, April 15, 2016.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- PRESS CENTER\n- Webcast\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/54/tr041516a"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/54/tr041516a/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/54/tr041516a/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/54/tr041516a/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: April 15, 2016",
    "Growth for sub-Saharan Africa fell to 3.5 percent in 2015, \"the lowest level in some 15 years.\"",
    "Projected growth for the region in 2016: \"about three percent.\"",
    "Both 2015 and 2016: \"GDP per capita growth will be below one percent.\"",
    "Medium-term prospects: \"drivers of growth ... over the last decade generally continue to be in place,\" notably \"the much-improved business environment and favorable demographics.\"",
    "Semiannual Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa to be published on May 3; launch events in Kampala and Abidjan.",
    "Commodity-price shock:",
    "External financing:",
    "Weather shock:",
    "Mozambique:",
    "Angola:",
    "Nigeria:",
    "Ghana:",
    "Zambia:",
    "South Africa:",
    "Cameroon:",
    "For commodity exporters:",
    "For countries outside monetary unions:",
    "For market-access countries with elevated deficits:",
    "On borrowing and transparency:",
    "On growth-supporting policies:",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[Webcast](https://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=4847521392001)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/54/tr041516a/index.md",
    "json": "/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/54/tr041516a/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2015/09/28/04/54/tr041516a/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-27T12:05:43.705Z"
}