{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2016 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Equatorial Guinea",
  "publication": "IMF News, September 8, 2016",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2016/09/08/pr16399-republic-of-equatorial-guinea-imf-executive-board-concludes-2016-article-iv-consultation",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2016/09/08/pr16399-republic-of-equatorial-guinea-imf-executive-board-concludes-2016-article-iv-consultation",
  "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2016/09/08/pr16399-republic-of-equatorial-guinea-imf-executive-board-concludes-2016-article-iv-consultation/index.md",
  "summary": "Real GDP growth averaged -0.5 percent from 2010-14, driven by a trend decline in the hydrocarbon sector.",
  "publishDate": "2016-09-08",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Economic performance and outlook",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth averaged -0.5 percent from 2010-14, driven by a trend decline in the hydrocarbon sector.\n- Economic contraction following the 2014 oil-price shock:\n  - 2015: overall economic activity declined by 7.4 percent.\n  - Hydrocarbon activity fell 8.9 percent in 2015.\n  - Non-hydrocarbon activity slumped by 5.2 percent in 2015.\n- Deterioration in the terms of trade widened the current account deficit to -16.8 percent of GDP (2015).\n- Inflation: 0.6 percent during Q2 2016, down from over 4 percent in 2014.\n- Near-term outlook:\n  - 2016 overall economic activity expected to decline by nearly 10 percent.\n  - Medium-term growth is unlikely given the large weight of hydrocarbons and fiscal consolidation effects on non-hydrocarbon activities.\n  - Pace of contraction should lessen as the national development strategy shifts focus to human resource development and new non-hydrocarbon growth drivers."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal position and public finances",
      "content": "- Fiscal adjustment reduced the overall deficit from -4.9 percent of GDP in 2014 to -3.2 percent in 2015.\n- Fiscal position remains under pressure; deficit financing has required domestic borrowing via central bank credit and use of government deposits.\n- Government finance indicators (percent of GDP):\n  - Revenue: 24.9 (2013), 24.3 (2014), 25.3 (2015), 22.8 (2016), 21.2 (2017), 19.5 (2018), 19.1 (2019), 18.3 (2020), 17.? (2021—table ends at 2019–2021 projection format). [Note: preserve only values explicitly shown in table]\n  - Of which: resource revenue: 21.4 (2013), 21.0 (2014), 20.4 (2015), 16.5 (2016), 14.3 (2017), 12.4 (2018), 11.7 (2019), 10.5 (2020), 9.6 (2021)\n  - Expenditure: 30.7 (2013), 29.2 (2014), 28.5 (2015), 28.1 (2016), 26.5 (2017), 24.5 (2018), 22.5 (2019), 20.5 (2020), 19.2 (2021)\n  - Overall fiscal balance after grants: -4.9 (2013), -3.2 (2014), -5.3 (2015), -3.4 (2016), -2.2 (2017), -1.3 (2018)\n  - Non-resource primary balance (percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP): -66.1 (2013), -61.1 (2014), -44.2 (2015), -36.7 (2016), -33.1 (2017), -29.0 (2018), -24.6 (2019), -20.0 (2020), -16.9 (2021)\n  - Gross government deposits (billions of CFAF): 1,226 (2013), 913 (2014), 862 (2015), 655 (2016), 466 (2017), 424 (2018), 451 (2019), 516 (2020), 642 (2021)\n- Directors urged increasing the pace of consolidation, mobilizing non‑resource revenues, rationalizing tax exemptions, and improving investment efficiency.\n- Recommended prioritization of ongoing projects while retaining investment in social development, particularly in health and education.\n- Suggested comprehensive review of tax policy and development of debt management capacity, supported by IMF technical assistance as needed."
    },
    {
      "heading": "External sector and debt",
      "content": "- Current account balance (including official transfers; - = deficit): -16.8 (2015), -11.8 (2016), -6.6 (2017), -5.9 (2018), -4.8 (2019), -3.5 (2020)\n- Outstanding medium- and long-term public debt (percent of GDP): 6.1 (2013), 8.7 (2014), 14.0 (2015), 19.6 (2016), 21.9 (2017), 25.9 (2018), 29.1 (2019), 31.7 (2020), 33.7 (2021)\n- Debt service-to-exports ratio (percent): 2.5 (2013), 2.2 (2014), 7.6 (2015), 11.9 (2016), 21.6 (2017), 24.2 (2018)\n- External debt service/government revenue (percent): 6.4 (2013), 5.9 (2014), 11.2 (2015), 9.9 (2016), 12.8 (2017), 16.2 (2018), 17.7 (2019)"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment — findings and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Main findings:\n  - Declining hydrocarbon production and depressed oil prices have led to a deep economic contraction.\n  - Limited buffers heighten the need for sustained policy adjustment to restore fiscal sustainability.\n  - Achieving sustainable and inclusive growth requires significant efforts to diversify toward non‑resource sectors, enhance human capital, and improve the business climate.\n- Policy recommendations:\n  - Increase the pace of fiscal consolidation beyond measures already underway.\n  - Mobilize non‑resource revenues and rationalize tax exemptions.\n  - Increase investment efficiency and prioritize ongoing projects while protecting social spending (health and education).\n  - Conduct a comprehensive tax policy review and develop debt management capacity with IMF technical assistance as needed.\n  - Develop a comprehensive reform agenda to improve the business climate, strengthen governance, foster human capital development, and reduce factor costs.\n  - Strengthen cooperation with the World Bank on business climate diagnostics to set structural reform priorities."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Financial sector and statistics",
      "content": "- Financial sector observations:\n  - Banks appear well capitalized, but high levels of non‑performing loans and declining profitability warrant vigilance.\n  - Financial sector vulnerabilities are linked to fiscal‑financial linkages: fiscal consolidation and government arrears to contractors affect firms’ ability to service loans.\n  - Directors encouraged adoption of a repayment strategy for accumulated arrears, maintenance of adequate capital buffers, strengthening bank supervision at the regional level, and promoting financial inclusion.\n- Statistical developments:\n  - Commended steps: adoption of legislation and a development strategy for the national statistical system, rebasing of the national accounts, and application to join the enhanced General Data Dissemination Standard (e‑GDDS).\n  - Urged continued efforts, with IMF and partner assistance, to address remaining data gaps to support surveillance and policy formulation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic and financial indicators (2013–21) — key series (exact values from source)",
      "content": "- Real GDP (annual percent change): -4.1 (2013), -0.5 (2014), -7.4 (2015), -9.9 (2016), -5.8 (2017), -2.7 (2018), -1.5 (2019), -1.2 (2020), 0.1 (2021)\n- Hydrocarbon sectors (annual percent change): -6.9 (2013), 1.4 (2014), -8.9 (2015), -11.2 (2016), -7.8 (2017), -5.6 (2018), -4.3 (2019), -4.2 (2020)\n- Oil and gas primary production (annual percent change): -12.1 (2013), 1.8 (2014), -8.1 (2015), -21.6 (2016), -11.5 (2017), -5.0 (2018), -3.0 (2019), -3.1 (2020), -1.8 (2021)\n- Hydrocarbon secondary production1 (annual percent change): 5.4 (2013), 0.6 (2014), -10.6 (2015), 10.2 (2016), -2.4 (2017), -6.4 (2018), -6.1 (2019), -5.7 (2020), -4.0 (2021)\n- Non‑hydrocarbon sectors (annual percent change): -3.3 (2013), -5.2 (2014), -8.0 (2015), 1.2 (2016), 2.0 (2017), 2.4 (2018), 3.2 (2019)\n- Oil price (U.S. dollars a barrel)2: 100.3 (2013), 92.5 (2014), 47.0 (2015), 38.5 (2016), 45.7 (2017), 48.5 (2018), 50.7 (2019), 52.6 (2020), 54.2 (2021)\n- Consumer prices (end of period): 4.9 (2013), 2.6 (2014), 1.6 (2015), 1.5 (2016), 1.9 (2017)\n- Broad money (annual percent change): 7.3 (2013), -14.1 (2014), -10.9 (2015), -16.3 (2016), -0.4 (2017), 17.8 (2018), 19.3 (2019), 16.9 (2020)\n- Nominal effective exchange rate (- = depreciation): -0.2 (2013), -9.1 (2014), n.a. (2015)\n- Real effective exchange rate (- = depreciation): 4.2 (2013), 2.7 (2014)\n\nSource: IMF Press Release No. 16/399, IMF Communications Department, September 8, 2016.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Republic of Equatorial Guinea and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2016/09/08/pr16399-republic-of-equatorial-guinea-imf-executive-board-concludes-2016-article-iv-consultation"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2016/09/08/pr16399-republic-of-equatorial-guinea-imf-executive-board-concludes-2016-article-iv-consultation/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2016/09/08/pr16399-republic-of-equatorial-guinea-imf-executive-board-concludes-2016-article-iv-consultation/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2016/09/08/pr16399-republic-of-equatorial-guinea-imf-executive-board-concludes-2016-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: September 8, 2016",
    "Real GDP growth averaged -0.5 percent from 2010-14, driven by a trend decline in the hydrocarbon sector.",
    "Economic contraction following the 2014 oil-price shock:",
    "Deterioration in the terms of trade widened the current account deficit to -16.8 percent of GDP (2015).",
    "Inflation: 0.6 percent during Q2 2016, down from over 4 percent in 2014.",
    "Near-term outlook:",
    "Fiscal adjustment reduced the overall deficit from -4.9 percent of GDP in 2014 to -3.2 percent in 2015.",
    "Fiscal position remains under pressure; deficit financing has required domestic borrowing via central bank credit and use of government deposits.",
    "Government finance indicators (percent of GDP):",
    "Directors urged increasing the pace of consolidation, mobilizing non‑resource revenues, rationalizing tax exemptions, and improving investment efficiency.",
    "Recommended prioritization of ongoing projects while retaining investment in social development, particularly in health and education.",
    "Suggested comprehensive review of tax policy and development of debt management capacity, supported by IMF technical assistance as needed.",
    "Current account balance (including official transfers; - = deficit): -16.8 (2015), -11.8 (2016), -6.6 (2017), -5.9 (2018), -4.8 (2019), -3.5 (2020)",
    "Outstanding medium- and long-term public debt (percent of GDP): 6.1 (2013), 8.7 (2014), 14.0 (2015), 19.6 (2016), 21.9 (2017), 25.9 (2018), 29.1 (2019), 31.7 (2020), 33.7 (2021)",
    "Debt service-to-exports ratio (percent): 2.5 (2013), 2.2 (2014), 7.6 (2015), 11.9 (2016), 21.6 (2017), 24.2 (2018)",
    "External debt service/government revenue (percent): 6.4 (2013), 5.9 (2014), 11.2 (2015), 9.9 (2016), 12.8 (2017), 16.2 (2018), 17.7 (2019)",
    "Main findings:",
    "Policy recommendations:",
    "Financial sector observations:",
    "Statistical developments:",
    "Real GDP (annual percent change): -4.1 (2013), -0.5 (2014), -7.4 (2015), -9.9 (2016), -5.8 (2017), -2.7 (2018), -1.5 (2019), -1.2 (2020), 0.1 (2021)",
    "Hydrocarbon sectors (annual percent change): -6.9 (2013), 1.4 (2014), -8.9 (2015), -11.2 (2016), -7.8 (2017), -5.6 (2018), -4.3 (2019), -4.2 (2020)",
    "Oil and gas primary production (annual percent change): -12.1 (2013), 1.8 (2014), -8.1 (2015), -21.6 (2016), -11.5 (2017), -5.0 (2018), -3.0 (2019), -3.1 (2020), -1.8 (2021)",
    "Hydrocarbon secondary production1 (annual percent change): 5.4 (2013), 0.6 (2014), -10.6 (2015), 10.2 (2016), -2.4 (2017), -6.4 (2018), -6.1 (2019), -5.7 (2020), -4.0 (2021)",
    "Non‑hydrocarbon sectors (annual percent change): -3.3 (2013), -5.2 (2014), -8.0 (2015), 1.2 (2016), 2.0 (2017), 2.4 (2018), 3.2 (2019)",
    "Oil price (U.S. dollars a barrel)2: 100.3 (2013), 92.5 (2014), 47.0 (2015), 38.5 (2016), 45.7 (2017), 48.5 (2018), 50.7 (2019), 52.6 (2020), 54.2 (2021)",
    "Consumer prices (end of period): 4.9 (2013), 2.6 (2014), 1.6 (2015), 1.5 (2016), 1.9 (2017)",
    "Broad money (annual percent change): 7.3 (2013), -14.1 (2014), -10.9 (2015), -16.3 (2016), -0.4 (2017), 17.8 (2018), 19.3 (2019), 16.9 (2020)",
    "Nominal effective exchange rate (- = depreciation): -0.2 (2013), -9.1 (2014), n.a. (2015)",
    "Real effective exchange rate (- = depreciation): 4.2 (2013), 2.7 (2014)",
    "[Republic of Equatorial Guinea and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/GNQ/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2016/09/08/pr16399-republic-of-equatorial-guinea-imf-executive-board-concludes-2016-article-iv-consultation/index.md",
    "json": "/en/news/articles/2016/09/08/pr16399-republic-of-equatorial-guinea-imf-executive-board-concludes-2016-article-iv-consultation/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2016/09/08/pr16399-republic-of-equatorial-guinea-imf-executive-board-concludes-2016-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-25T20:09:07.718Z"
}