{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2017 Article IV Consultation; and Completion of the First Review under and Extension of the Staff monitored Program with The Gambia",
  "publication": "IMF News, March 23, 2018",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2018/03/23/pr18105-imf-executive-board-concludes-2017-article-iv-consultation-with-the-gambia",
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  "summary": "March 23, 2018",
  "publishDate": "2018-03-23",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Economic developments and outlook",
      "content": "- Economic growth for 2017 is estimated at 3.5 percent, reflecting a better agricultural season and a strong rebound of tourism and trade.\n- Headline inflation declined from 8.8 percent in January 2017 to 6.4 percent in January 2018, reflecting the stabilization of the dalasi and a gradual decrease in food prices.\n- The dalasi has remained stable since April (2017), supported by much-improved fiscal discipline and external financial support.\n- Gross international reserves increased from 1.6 months of import cover at end-2016 to 2.9 months at end-2017.\n- The Executive Board granted a waiver."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Staff-monitored program (SMP) and program extension",
      "content": "- The authorities’ commitment to the SMP is described as strong.\n- Performance under the program was broadly satisfactory, with good progress on the structural agenda despite severe capacity constraints.\n- The Managing Director approved the authorities’ request for an extension of the SMP by six months to end-September 2018 to provide more time to establish a track record for transition to an arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF).\n- Note on SMPs: An SMP is an informal agreement between country authorities and Fund staff; SMPs do not entail financial assistance or endorsement by the IMF Executive Board."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Directors commended strong commitment to reforms and welcomed progress in stabilizing the economy.\n- Fiscal policy:\n  - Maintain strict fiscal discipline.\n  - Contain spending while raising domestic revenue, including implementing the revenue measures delayed to 2018.\n  - Further efforts to streamline the civil service.\n  - Develop a medium term economic and fiscal framework together with a debt management strategy to anchor fiscal policy.\n  - Prioritize and sequence investment projects; refrain from contracting any large new debt or contingent liabilities that would jeopardize debt sustainability.\n- Debt and external support:\n  - Directors noted substantial debt vulnerabilities and high risk of external debt distress.\n  - Concerted international community support is key to addressing the high debt overhang.\n  - Mobilization of assistance for the National Development Strategy should focus on grants, with only very limited room even for highly concessional loans in the medium term.\n  - Directors called for additional resources to foster debt sustainability, including debt restructuring and softening of terms on existing commitments.\n- Monetary and exchange rate policy:\n  - Further progress in reducing inflation would provide room to lower the policy interest rate.\n  - Welcome the authorities’ commitment to maintain a flexible exchange rate system to support rebuilding international reserves.\n  - Strengthen the central bank’s independence, governance, and operational effectiveness.\n- Financial sector and business environment:\n  - Crowd in the private sector to support broad-based growth, including by increasing access to financing.\n  - Safeguard financial stability through heightened and risk-based supervision given lower interest rates and maturity lengthening of domestic debt.\n  - Strengthen the AML/CFT framework to address the decline in correspondent banking relationships.\n  - Improve the business environment and strengthen governance.\n- Social and inclusive growth:\n  - Reducing income and gender inequality would support economic growth while achieving better social outcomes."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected quantitative highlights reported in the statement",
      "content": "- Growth and inflation:\n  - 2017 economic growth: 3.5 percent.\n  - Inflation: 8.8 percent in January 2017 → 6.4 percent in January 2018.\n- External and reserve indicators:\n  - Gross international reserves: 1.6 months of import cover at end-2016 → 2.9 months at end-2017.\n- Program timing:\n  - SMP extension: six months to end-September 2018.\n- Table excerpts and selected series (as published):\n  - Nominal GDP (millions of dalasi): 38,581; 42,252; 47,139; 47,289; 52,577; 57,973; 63,645; 69,848; 76,574; 83,941.\n  - Nominal GDP (percent change): 10.9; 9.5; 11.6; 11.9; 11.2; 10.3; 9.8; 9.7; 9.6.\n  - GDP at constant prices (percent change): 4.3; 2.2; 3.0; 3.5; 5.4; 5.2; 4.9; 4.8; 4.9.\n  - GDP per capita (US$): 451; 473; 488; 480; 500; 518; 531; 542; 554; 563.\n  - GDP deflator: 6.4; 7.1; 8.3; 8.1; 5.5; 4.6; 4.7.\n  - Consumer prices (average): 6.8; 7.2; 8.0; 5.8; 5.0.\n  - Trade balance (percent of GDP, deficit -): -25.7; -17.9; -22.8; -27.8; -31.9; -29.5; -26.2; -24.9; -23.8; -24.1.\n  - Exports of goods and services (percent change): -9.5; -6.0; 16.9; 9.3; 9.0; 8.2; 6.5.\n  - Imports of goods and services (percent change): 11.3; -10.2; 12.3; 23.2; 20.5; 3.2; 0.9; 4.0; 4.4; 6.1.\n  - Broad money (percent change): -0.9; 15.3; 11.4; 19.3; 11.0; 9.1; 8.4.\n  - Net foreign assets (percent change): -11.6; -4.5; 28.3; 3.8; 6.6; 2.3; 2.5.\n  - Credit to the government (net, percent change): 16.0; 24.8; -7.8; -7.0; 0.0; -1.6; 0.2; 0.1.\n  - Domestic revenue (percent of GDP): 19.7; 18.4; 18.7; 19.6; 20.9; 18.9; 19.2; 20.2; 20.4.\n  - Grants (percent of GDP): 11.1; 13.2; 10.0; 7.3; 6.2; 4.2.\n  - Total expenditures and net acquisition of financial assets (percent of GDP): 29.7; 29.8; 28.0; 34.5; 34.8; 30.6; 27.6; 25.6; 25.1; 24.6.\n  - Interest payments (percent of government revenue): 36.8; 42.0; 31.5; 24.2; 18.2; 18.1; 19.1; 15.6; 14.1; 13.0.\n  - Net lending (+)/borrowing (–) (percent of GDP): -8.1; -9.7; -2.5; -3.9; -0.8; -1.7; 0.3; -0.6.\n  - Net incurrence of liabilities (percent of GDP): 12.1; 13.7; 3.9; 0.8; 1.1; -0.3.\n  - Public debt (percent of GDP): 105.3; 118.5; 112.7; 122.6; 111.5; 105.2; 99.5; 92.7; 87.7; 82.0.\n  - Domestic public debt (percent of GDP): 53.9; 61.9; 61.8; 59.4; 49.4; 45.1; 42.1; 37.5; 31.7.\n  - External public debt (percent of GDP): 51.4; 56.6; 50.9; 63.2; 62.1; 60.1; 57.5; 55.2; 53.1; 50.2.\n  - External public debt (millions of US$): 499.0; 544.7; 517.2; 627.7; 666.1; 687.9; 695.2; 701.7; 706.0; 702.0.\n  - Current account balance excluding budget support (percent of GDP): -16.9; -14.4; -19.4; -23.7; -21.2; -18.1; -16.0.\n  - Current account balance including budget support (percent of GDP): -15.0; -8.9; -9.4; -14.3; -18.4; -13.2; -14.1; -13.6.\n  - Current account balance (Millions of U.S. dollars): -134.0; -85.4; -97.0; -144.2; -200.1; -196.4; -177.2; -170.8; -192.1; -193.6.\n  - Overall balance of payments (Millions of U.S. dollars): -41.3; -10.3; 13.4; 75.2; 44.0; 26.6; 28.9; 33.8; 20.0; 19.9.\n  - Gross official reserves (Millions of U.S. dollars): 76.1; 59.8; 84.8; 143.9; 180.0; 200.0; 223.6; 251.7; 267.7; 281.9.\n  - Gross official reserves (months of next year's imports of goods and services): 1.4; 2.9; 4.1; 4.5.\n  - Use of Fund resources (Millions of SDRs) – Disbursements: 7.8; 11.7. Repayments: -3.8; -4.3; -5.2; -5.5; -4.6; -3.6; -4.0.\n\nIMF Communications Department, Press Release No. 18/105, March 23, 2018.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- The Gambia and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2018/03/23/pr18105-imf-executive-board-concludes-2017-article-iv-consultation-with-the-gambia"
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    "Published: March 23, 2018",
    "Economic growth for 2017 is estimated at 3.5 percent, reflecting a better agricultural season and a strong rebound of tourism and trade.",
    "Headline inflation declined from 8.8 percent in January 2017 to 6.4 percent in January 2018, reflecting the stabilization of the dalasi and a gradual decrease in food prices.",
    "The dalasi has remained stable since April (2017), supported by much-improved fiscal discipline and external financial support.",
    "Gross international reserves increased from 1.6 months of import cover at end-2016 to 2.9 months at end-2017.",
    "The Executive Board granted a waiver.",
    "The authorities’ commitment to the SMP is described as strong.",
    "Performance under the program was broadly satisfactory, with good progress on the structural agenda despite severe capacity constraints.",
    "The Managing Director approved the authorities’ request for an extension of the SMP by six months to end-September 2018 to provide more time to establish a track record for transition to an arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF).",
    "Note on SMPs: An SMP is an informal agreement between country authorities and Fund staff; SMPs do not entail financial assistance or endorsement by the IMF Executive Board.",
    "Directors commended strong commitment to reforms and welcomed progress in stabilizing the economy.",
    "Fiscal policy:",
    "Debt and external support:",
    "Monetary and exchange rate policy:",
    "Financial sector and business environment:",
    "Social and inclusive growth:",
    "Growth and inflation:",
    "External and reserve indicators:",
    "Program timing:",
    "Table excerpts and selected series (as published):",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
    "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)",
    "[The Gambia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/GMB/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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