April 19, 2018
The IMF forecast growth this year and next year at 3.9 percent, which is more than the 3.7 percent that you may have heard about back in October. It is clearly a pickup in our projection, and we maintain it this year and next.
", "publishDate": "2018-04-19", "sections": [ { "heading": "Global growth outlook and forecast", "content": "- IMF forecast growth this year and next year at 3.9 percent (up from 3.7 percent in October).\n- Momentum drivers:\n - Stronger investment.\n - A rebound in trade.\n - Broad-based participation: US, Europe, Japan, China, and many other emerging and developing countries — yet not all." }, { "heading": "Downside risks (\"clouds\")", "content": "- Global debt\n - Global debt stands at $164 trillion.\n - This is 225 percent of GDP.\n - The private sector accounts for two-thirds of that debt.\n - Public debt in advanced economies is at levels not seen since World War II.\n - In low-income countries, if recent trends continue, many, not all, will face unsustainable debt burdens.\n- Financial vulnerabilities\n - Increased due to high debt, rising financial market volatility, and elevated asset prices.\n - Risk: a sudden tightening of financial conditions could lead to market corrections, unsustainable debt, and capital flow reversals.\n- Erosion of international cooperation, notably on trade\n - Questioning of the international framework that has underpinned poverty reduction and global progress.\n - Unilateral trade restrictions could dent confidence and harm investment and trade engines that are supporting growth." }, { "heading": "Measured impact of trade tensions", "content": "- Modeling suggests the direct GDP impact of current trade measures is small — \"decimals in most cases.\"\n- More consequential is the erosion of confidence: uncertainty about trade terms and supply chains can reduce investment.\n- Policy emphasis: resolve disagreements through dialogue and multilateral cooperation rather than exceptional unilateral measures." }, { "heading": "Global Policy Agenda (GPA) recommendations (2018)", "content": "- Step up structural reforms\n - \"When the sun is shining, fix the roof\": identify reforms to improve medium-term growth, prevent return to mediocre growth in advanced economies, and help low-income countries progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals of 2030.\n- Build policy buffers\n - Create more room to act when the next downturn occurs by reducing government deficits in a growth-friendly way and allowing more exchange rate flexibility where appropriate.\n- Steer clear of protectionism measures\n - Countries should work together to resolve trade disagreements without using exceptional measures; address domestic policies to help those affected by technological change and trade dislocation.\n- The IMF role: support 189 members through analysis, advice, and offering a platform for dialogue and cooperation." }, { "heading": "Country-specific observations and recommendations", "content": "- United States\n - IMF supportive of corporate tax reform that reduces the US corporate tax rate toward the OECD average and simplifies the system.\n - Recommendation: use the upswing to reduce deficits and move debt downward rather than upward.\n- China\n - Measures to open up (remove caps, reduce tariffs) are directionally positive; IMF will monitor implementation and delivery closely.\n- Greece\n - Eight years of difficult policy implementation have improved economic indicators.\n - 10-year Greek bond was yesterday below 4 percent, signaling improved market sentiment.\n - IMF committed to continue support and help Greece regain economic sovereignty in line with IMF policy principles.\n- Egypt\n - Major changes with IMF support; reforms include floating the currency, rebuilding reserves, and reducing the fiscal deficit.\n - Social protection measures targeted the poor and most exposed; middle class felt effects more due to subsidy removals.\n - Result: rebound in foreign direct investment and overall investment; growth rebounding.\n- Brazil\n - With growth picking up, IMF advises intelligent, gradual, growth-friendly fiscal consolidation to build buffers without derailing recovery.\n- India\n - Noted reforms: Goods and Services Tax (GST), bankruptcy law reform.\n - Growth cited at 7.4 percent (one of the highest among emerging market economies).\n - IMF expects more reforms, including in the banking sector.\n - Separate non-IMF commentary emphasized greater attention to women’s safety and rights.\n- Indonesia\n - Growth above 5 percent; authorities investing in infrastructure, health, and removing subsidies to reallocate spending.\n - Use of digital technologies to extend services across 17,000 islands; more than a third of the population benefiting from access to free health benefits via a smart plastic card.\n- Congo Brazzaville / CEMAC\n - Draft program work concluded by mission team and will be submitted to the Executive Board.\n - IMF requires governance improvements to ensure proper utilization of public funds and attainment of program objectives.\n - On the CFA franc: IMF supports financial stability in the zone; no specific position on devaluation given." }, { "heading": "Technology, competition, and financial innovation", "content": "- The IMF is studying impacts of new technologies (artificial intelligence, distributed ledger technologies) on financial stability, prosperity, and the workplace.\n- Concerns:\n - Excessive market concentration and market power can harm medium- to long-term productivity and well-being.\n - Crypto currencies: more than a hundred exist; not seen as systemic at this point, but stability implications warrant regulatory and supervisory vigilance.\n- Competition policy and digital platforms\n - Competition fosters productivity and innovation; too much concentration is problematic.\n - Breaking up major tech firms is not presented as a clear or immediate solution given intangible assets and access issues; policy responses will require multidisciplinary thinking across competition, tax, finance, sociology, and behavioral economics." }, { "heading": "IMF convening and surveillance role", "content": "- IMF will use Spring and Annual Meetings and bilateral sessions to encourage dialogue among finance ministers and central bank governors.\n- Surveillance will step up on governance and corruption issues during annual surveillance and program monitoring; IMF will work within its competence to increase vigilance where needed.\n- The IMF emphasizes multilateral dialogue as a way to address international tensions and protect engines of growth.\n\nTranscript of Managing Director's Press Briefing, Washington D.C., April 19, 2018 — IMF Communications Department\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2018/04/19/tr041918-transcript-of-managing-directors-press-briefing" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2018/04/19/tr041918-transcript-of-managing-directors-press-briefing/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2018/04/19/tr041918-transcript-of-managing-directors-press-briefing/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2018/04/19/tr041918-transcript-of-managing-directors-press-briefing/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: April 19, 2018", "IMF forecast growth this year and next year at 3.9 percent (up from 3.7 percent in October).", "Momentum drivers:", "Global debt", "Financial vulnerabilities", "Erosion of international cooperation, notably on trade", "Modeling suggests the direct GDP impact of current trade measures is small — \"decimals in most cases.\"", "More consequential is the erosion of confidence: uncertainty about trade terms and supply chains can reduce investment.", "Policy emphasis: resolve disagreements through dialogue and multilateral cooperation rather than exceptional unilateral measures.", "Step up structural reforms", "Build policy buffers", "Steer clear of protectionism measures", "The IMF role: support 189 members through analysis, advice, and offering a platform for dialogue and cooperation.", "United States", "China", "Greece", "Egypt", "Brazil", "India", "Indonesia", "Congo Brazzaville / CEMAC", "The IMF is studying impacts of new technologies (artificial intelligence, distributed ledger technologies) on financial stability, prosperity, and the workplace.", "Concerns:", "Competition policy and digital platforms", "IMF will use Spring and Annual Meetings and bilateral sessions to encourage dialogue among finance ministers and central bank governors.", "Surveillance will step up on governance and corruption issues during annual surveillance and program monitoring; IMF will work within its competence to increase vigilance where needed.", "The IMF emphasizes multilateral dialogue as a way to address international tensions and protect engines of growth.", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2018/04/19/tr041918-transcript-of-managing-directors-press-briefing/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2018/04/19/tr041918-transcript-of-managing-directors-press-briefing/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2018/04/19/tr041918-transcript-of-managing-directors-press-briefing/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-25T21:43:57.365Z" }