July 13, 2018
Economic growth slowed in 2017, but became more broad-based. The economy grew by 2.1 percent, down from 3.", "publishDate": "2018-07-13", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview", "content": "- Press Release No. 18/293; July 13, 2018.\n- On June 15, 2018, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Guyana and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting.\n- Economic growth slowed to 2.1 percent in 2017 from 3.4 percent in 2016, driven by lower than expected mining output and weak performance in the sugar sector, while non-mining growth rebounded to 4.1 percent in 2017." }, { "heading": "2017 Macroeconomic Developments", "content": "- Growth and inflation:\n - Real GDP growth: 2.1 percent in 2017 (3.4 percent in 2016).\n - Non-mining growth: 4.1 percent in 2017.\n - Inflation (end-2017): 1.5 percent; core inflation close to zero.\n- External sector:\n - Current account: deficit of 6.7 percent of GDP in 2017, down from a surplus of 0.4 percent in 2016.\n - Gross reserve cover: 3.2 months of imports at end-2017.\n - Financial account improved due to FDI, particularly in the oil and gas sector, and higher loan disbursements to the public sector.\n- Fiscal and public debt:\n - Central government deficit: around 4.5 percent of GDP in 2017.\n - Tax revenue to GDP ratio increased by 1.2 percentage points in 2017.\n - Non-tax revenue ratio declined by 0.4 percentage points in 2017.\n - Public debt: 52.2 percent of GDP at end-2017.\n- Financial sector:\n - Credit to the private sector grew 2.1 percent in 2017.\n - Banking system: profitable with adequate capital buffers.\n - Non-performing loans (NPLs): 12.2 percent of total loans at end-2017 (down from 12.9 percent at end-2016)." }, { "heading": "Medium-term Outlook and Projections", "content": "- Oil and growth:\n - Oil production expected to commence in 2020; additional discoveries improve medium- and long-term outlook.\n - Real GDP growth projected: 3.4 percent in 2018 (driven by construction and rice sectors, and a recovery in gold mining).\n- Current account projections:\n - Current account deficit projected to narrow to 6.1 percent of GDP in 2018 and to 4.3 percent of GDP in 2019.\n - Financing largely by FDI inflows and donor-supported investment.\n- Fiscal projections:\n - Central government deficit projected at 5.4 percent of GDP in 2018 and 5.1 percent of GDP in 2019 due to sugar sector restructuring and increased infrastructure-related capital expenditure.\n - Public debt projected to rise in the short term before declining with the onset of oil production." }, { "heading": "Executive Board Assessment and Policy Recommendations", "content": "- Overall assessment:\n - Guyana’s macroeconomic outlook remains favorable; growth expected to accelerate ahead of oil production in 2020.\n - Extractive industries and public investment will be key drivers of medium-term growth.\n- Short-term financing and buffers:\n - Short-term financing needs should be carefully managed.\n - Authorities’ restraint towards borrowing in anticipation of future oil revenue is commended.\n - Recommendation to rely as much as possible on Multilateral Development Banks, including non-concessional operations.\n - Develop domestic capital markets to provide a stable source of financing and meet needs of domestic long-term institutional investors.\n - Private external borrowing should continue to be avoided.\n - Central bank financing should not be used; staff welcomed authorities’ intention to close overdraft balances at the central bank in the near-term.\n - Saving one-off gains from the tax amnesty would reduce financing needs and help preserve external buffers.\n- Fiscal policy and oil management:\n - Improve quality and efficiency of government expenditure before scaling up public investment with oil revenues; address shortcomings identified by the PIMA.\n - Review current expenditures to ensure maximum welfare and inclusion benefits.\n - Establish a transparent rules-based fiscal framework for managing oil wealth consistent with resource fund deposit/withdrawal rules, for allocation of annual oil revenue to stabilization, domestic capital expenditure, and intergenerational savings.\n - Consider fiscal responsibility legislation to reinforce consistency between fund rules and a fiscal rule.\n- Monetary and exchange rate policy:\n - Monetary policy should gradually revert towards a neutral stance as recovery gains pace and inflationary pressures arise.\n - The exchange rate should play a more active role in cushioning external shocks.\n - Build an adequate buffer stock of savings from oil revenues to cope with external shocks over the long-term.\n- Financial sector reforms:\n - Significant progress on 2016 FSAP recommendations, but further progress needed:\n - Ensure internal consistency of supervisory function from routine supervision to intervention and resolution.\n - Eliminate reduced provisioning requirements for “well-secured” portions of NPLs.\n - Refine definition of “related parties” to align with international standards.\n - Reduce reliance on overdraft lending.\n - Clarify upstream and downstream ownership of institutions.\n - Raise minimum capital adequacy requirement to 12 percent.\n - Reduce banks’ large exposure limits.\n- Competitiveness and inclusion:\n - Prioritize enhancing competitiveness and supporting inclusive growth by lowering cost of doing business, addressing infrastructure bottlenecks, reducing energy costs, and cutting red tape.\n - Increase female labor force participation and bridge gaps with the Hinterland to boost growth and widen benefits.\n- Statistics and national accounts:\n - Include oil exploration and production in the national accounts when rebased, and in the balance of payments statistics.\n - Strengthen external sector statistics and compile an international investment position." }, { "heading": "Key Social and Economic Indicators (selected figures preserved exactly as in source)", "content": "- I. Social Indicators\n - Population, 2018 (thousands): 782\n - Life expectancy at birth (years), 2015: 66.5\n - Population not using an improved water source (%), 2015: 1.7\n - Under-five mortality rate (per 1,000 live births), 2016: 32.4\n - Gini index, 1998: 44.6\n - Population living below the poverty line (%), 2000-06: 35\n - HDI rank, 2015: 127\n- II. Economic Indicators — Selected projections and levels\n - Real GDP (annual percent change): 2014: 3.9; 2015: 3.1; 2016: 3.4; 2017: 2.1; 2018: 4.8; 2019: (not provided in table for 2019 under Real GDP)\n - Real GDP per capita (annual percent change): 2014: 3.5; 2015: 2.7; 2016: 2.5; 2017: 0.1; 2018: 1.4; 2019: 4.5\n - Consumer prices (average): 2014: 0.7; 2015: -0.9; 2016: 0.8; 2017: 2.0; 2018: 1.3; 2019: 2.9\n - Consumer prices (end of period): 2014: 1.2; 2015: -1.8; 2016: 1.5; 2017: 2.2; 2018: 3.0\n - Central government revenue (percent of GDP): 2014: 22.9; 2015: 24.6; 2016: 24.5; 2017: 26.0; 2018: 26.7; 2019: 27.6\n - Central government expenditure (percent of GDP): 2014: 29.1; 2015: 27.0; 2016: 30.0; 2017: 32.1; 2018: 33.6; 2019: 34.1\n - Central government overall balance (after grants) (percent of GDP): 2014: -5.5; 2015: -1.4; 2016: -4.4; 2017: -4.5; 2018: -5.4; 2019: -5.1\n - Total public sector gross debt (percent of GDP): 2014: 51.9; 2015: 50.1; 2016: 50.7; 2017: 52.2; 2018: 57.0; 2019: 57.2\n - External public debt (percent of GDP): 2014: 39.5; 2015: 35.7; 2016: 33.2; 2017: 35.5; 2018: 36.0; 2019: 32.8\n - Domestic public debt (percent of GDP): 2014: 12.3; 2015: 14.4; 2016: 17.6; 2017: 16.7; 2018: 21.0; 2019: 24.4\n - Broad money (annual percentage change, end of period): 2014: 3.3; 2015: 3.7; 2016: 5.4; 2017: -0.7; 2018: 10.7; 2019: 7.0\n - Domestic credit of the banking system — public sector (net) (annual percentage change, end of period): 2014: 13.6; 2015: 34.4; 2016: 23.6; 2017: 0.4; 2018: 26.4; 2019: 22.3\n - Current account balance (in millions of U.S. dollars): 2014: -291.5; 2015: -163.0; 2016: 13.2; 2017: -237.2; 2018: -220.2; 2019: -168.5\n - Current account balance (percent of GDP): -9.5 (year not explicitly labeled in table); -6.7; -6.1; -4.3 (matching projections)\n - Gross official reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars): 2014: 665.6; 2015: 598.5; 2016: 596.7; 2017: 584.6; 2018: 612.1; 2019: 631.6\n - Nominal GDP (G$ billion): 2014: 635.4; 2015: 660.2; 2016: 723.6; 2017: 748.7; 2018: 780.0; 2019: 834.7\n - Per capita GDP, US$: 2014: 4,030; 2015: 4,168; 2016: 4,531; 2017: 4,578; 2018: 4,649; 2019: 4,939\n - Guyana dollar/U.S. dollar (period average): 2014: 206.4; 2015: 206.5; 2016: 210.3\n\nSource: Press Release No. 18/293, IMF Executive Board conclusions on the 2018 Article IV Consultation with Guyana (July 13, 2018).\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- Guyana and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2018/07/13/pr18293-imf-executive-board-concludes-article-iv-consultation-with-guyana" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2018/07/13/pr18293-imf-executive-board-concludes-article-iv-consultation-with-guyana/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2018/07/13/pr18293-imf-executive-board-concludes-article-iv-consultation-with-guyana/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2018/07/13/pr18293-imf-executive-board-concludes-article-iv-consultation-with-guyana/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: July 13, 2018", "Press Release No. 18/293; July 13, 2018.", "On June 15, 2018, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Guyana and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting.", "Economic growth slowed to 2.1 percent in 2017 from 3.4 percent in 2016, driven by lower than expected mining output and weak performance in the sugar sector, while non-mining growth rebounded to 4.1 percent in 2017.", "Growth and inflation:", "External sector:", "Fiscal and public debt:", "Financial sector:", "Oil and growth:", "Current account projections:", "Fiscal projections:", "Overall assessment:", "Short-term financing and buffers:", "Fiscal policy and oil management:", "Monetary and exchange rate policy:", "Financial sector reforms:", "Competitiveness and inclusion:", "Statistics and national accounts:", "I. Social Indicators", "II. Economic Indicators — Selected projections and levels", "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)", "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)", "[Guyana and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/GUY/index.htm)", "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)", "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2018/07/13/pr18293-imf-executive-board-concludes-article-iv-consultation-with-guyana/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2018/07/13/pr18293-imf-executive-board-concludes-article-iv-consultation-with-guyana/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2018/07/13/pr18293-imf-executive-board-concludes-article-iv-consultation-with-guyana/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-25T22:03:21.994Z" }