{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2018 Article IV Consultation with Singapore",
  "publication": "IMF News, July 27, 2018",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2018/07/27/pr18316-singapore-imf-executive-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2018/07/27/pr18316-singapore-imf-executive-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation",
  "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2018/07/27/pr18316-singapore-imf-executive-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation/index.md",
  "summary": "On July 20, 2018, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Singapore.",
  "publishDate": "2018-07-27",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Executive summary and macro outlook",
      "content": "- On July 20, 2018, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Singapore.\n- Recent performance:\n  - Real GDP growth reached 4.4 percent in 2018Q1 compared to a year ago and the 2017 average of 3.6 percent.\n  - Headline consumer price inflation turned positive in 2017 after nearly two years below zero; MAS core inflation was largely unchanged at 1.5 percent in the first four months of 2018.\n  - The current account surplus has remained substantial and broadly unchanged as a share of GDP in the past few years.\n- Outlook and risks:\n  - Economic growth is expected to normalize toward its potential rate of about 2¾ percent, starting in 2018.\n  - Strengthening labor market conditions should support higher inflation going forward.\n  - Near-term risks are broadly balanced and stem from external sources: intensification of trade tensions, tighter financial conditions, and slower-than-expected growth in major trading partners (downside); continued strength in global electronics trade and higher-than-expected spillover from U.S. fiscal stimulus (upside).\n  - Medium-term priority: successful transition to a new growth model adopting general purpose digital technologies, innovation, skill upgrading, and greater inclusion to help rebalance the economy."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- General assessment:\n  - Directors commended the authorities for strong and strategic stewardship and pro-active approach to structural transformation.\n  - Challenges include an evolving external environment, demographics, and technological change.\n- Monetary policy:\n  - The commencement in April of monetary policy normalization was considered appropriate given cyclical strength and labor market recovery.\n  - Further normalization should be data dependent and taken in response to clear signs of inflationary pressures.\n- Fiscal policy:\n  - Directors welcomed the planned fiscal impulse under the FY2018/19 budget to boost infrastructure and aging-related healthcare services, easing supply constraints and facilitating external rebalancing.\n  - Additional stimulus would be appropriate if downside risks materialize; fiscal policy should be the first line of defense if growth and inflation undershoot.\n  - For the medium term, Directors noted the need to maintain fiscal sustainability against higher recurrent spending needs from demographics.\n  - Fiscal options to consider: a lower budget surplus and bringing on budget more of the government’s asset income, a higher goods and services tax (GST), and borrowing for infrastructure spending.\n- External position:\n  - Singapore’s external position is strong. The current account surplus is expected to narrow gradually over the medium term as private investment recovers and public capital spending rises.\n  - Some Directors saw scope for fiscal and structural policies to reduce external surpluses and urged strengthening social insurance arrangements to lower private precautionary saving.\n- Financial sector and macroprudential policy:\n  - Financial sector remains healthy with adequate buffers and strong balance sheets for banks, households, and corporates, but pockets of vulnerabilities require monitoring.\n  - Directors welcomed efforts to strengthen the regulatory framework in line with Basel III and to enhance the AML/CFT framework.\n  - Continued support for FinTech development was encouraged, with regulation adapting to emerging risks.\n  - The upcoming FSAP intends to examine financial sector issues in detail.\n  - Property markets: welcome continued monitoring and appropriate adjustment of macroprudential measures; residency-based differentiation in the stamp duty (ABSD) should be eliminated and the measure phased out once systemic risks dissipate.\n- Structural and labor market policies:\n  - Directors commended plans to harness automation and digital technologies to drive productivity, including targeted incentives for firms and reskilling/lifelong learning for workers.\n  - Encouraged fostering competition and innovation, including support for new, dynamic firms.\n  - Supported adopting broader social insurance arrangements to help workers cope with technological disruptions."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected economic and financial indicators (highlights)",
      "content": "- Nominal GDP (2017): US$324 billion\n- Population (June 2017): 5.61 million\n- GDP per capita (2017): US$57,737\n- Main goods exports (2017, percent of total exports):\n  - Electronic products (33 percent); mineral fuels (18 percent); and chemical products (14 percent).\n- Top three destinations for goods exports (2017, percent of gross goods exports):\n  - China (14 percent); Hong Kong SAR (12 percent); and Malaysia (11 percent)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key historical and projected figures (selected series, 2013–19)",
      "content": "- Real GDP growth (percentage change):\n  - 2013: 5.1\n  - 2014: 3.9\n  - 2015: 2.2\n  - 2016: 2.4\n  - 2017: 3.6\n  - 2018 (projection): 2.9\n  - 2019 (projection): 2.7\n- Total domestic demand (percentage change):\n  - 2013: 5.2; 2014: 2.3; 2015: 0.5; 2016: 3.1; 2017: 5.4; 2018: 3.0\n- Gross national saving (percent of GDP):\n  - 2013: 47.2; 2014: 48.8; 2015: 45.7; 2016: 46.0; 2017: 46.5; 2018: 46.4; 2019: 45.8\n- Gross domestic investment (percent of GDP):\n  - 2013: 30.7; 2014: 30.2; 2015: 27.1; 2016: 27.0; 2017: 27.6; 2018: 28.2; 2019: 27.9\n- Central government finances (percent of GDP) — selected:\n  - Revenue: 2013: 21.6; 2014: 21.2; 2015: 21.4; 2016: 21.9; 2017: 22.6; 2018: 21.8\n  - Expenditure: 2013: 14.6; 2014: 15.4; 2015: 17.7; 2016: 18.1; 2017: 18.0; 2018: 18.9; 2019: 20.0\n  - Net lending/borrowing: 2013: 7.0; 2014: 5.8; 2015: 4.6\n- Balance of payments (US$ billions):\n  - Current account balance: 2013: 50.3; 2014: 58.2; 2015: 56.5; 2016: 58.8; 2017: 61.0; 2018: 63.6; 2019: 65.7\n  - (In percent of GDP) 2013: 16.5; 2014: 18.7; 2015: 18.6; 2016: 19.0; 2017: 18.8; 2018: 18.2\n  - Gross official reserves (US$ billions): 2013: 273.1; 2014: 256.9; 2015: 247.7; 2016: 246.6; 2017: 279.9; 2018: 294.0; 2019: 301.9\n- Exchange rates and price indices:\n  - Singapore dollar/U.S. dollar exchange rate (period average): 2013: 1.25; 2014: 1.27; 2015: 1.37; 2016: 1.38\n  - Nominal effective exchange rate (percentage change): 2013: 2.6; 2014: -0.3\n  - Real effective exchange rate (percentage change): 2013: -2.0\n\nIMF Press Release No. 18/316, July 27, 2018.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- Singapore and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2018/07/27/pr18316-singapore-imf-executive-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2018/07/27/pr18316-singapore-imf-executive-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2018/07/27/pr18316-singapore-imf-executive-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2018/07/27/pr18316-singapore-imf-executive-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: July 27, 2018",
    "On July 20, 2018, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Singapore.",
    "Recent performance:",
    "Outlook and risks:",
    "General assessment:",
    "Monetary policy:",
    "Fiscal policy:",
    "External position:",
    "Financial sector and macroprudential policy:",
    "Structural and labor market policies:",
    "Nominal GDP (2017): US$324 billion",
    "Population (June 2017): 5.61 million",
    "GDP per capita (2017): US$57,737",
    "Main goods exports (2017, percent of total exports):",
    "Top three destinations for goods exports (2017, percent of gross goods exports):",
    "Real GDP growth (percentage change):",
    "Total domestic demand (percentage change):",
    "Gross national saving (percent of GDP):",
    "Gross domestic investment (percent of GDP):",
    "Central government finances (percent of GDP) — selected:",
    "Balance of payments (US$ billions):",
    "Exchange rates and price indices:",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
    "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)",
    "[Singapore and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/SGP/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2018/07/27/pr18316-singapore-imf-executive-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation/index.md",
    "json": "/en/news/articles/2018/07/27/pr18316-singapore-imf-executive-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2018/07/27/pr18316-singapore-imf-executive-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-25T22:07:35.840Z"
}