{ "title": "Mexico's Economic Outlook in Five Charts", "publication": "IMF News, November 8, 2018", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2018/11/07/na110818-mexico-economic-outlook-in-5-charts", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2018/11/07/na110818-mexico-economic-outlook-in-5-charts", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2018/11/07/na110818-mexico-economic-outlook-in-5-charts/index.md", "summary": "Mexico's economy remains resilient despite uncertainties in the first half of 2018, caused by the lead up to elections and the US-Mexico-Canada trade negotiations.", "publishDate": "2018-11-08", "sections": [ { "heading": "Growth outlook and near-term drivers", "content": "- Mexico's economy grew moderately in 2018, supported mainly by domestic demand.\n- Growth projections:\n - 2.1 percent for 2018\n - 2.3 percent in 2019\n- Drivers and headwinds:\n - Growth will benefit from strong economic activity in the United States in both years.\n - Continued tight monetary policy and uncertainty related to both the incoming administration’s policies and trade relations with the US will continue, thus dampening growth." }, { "heading": "Public debt and fiscal stance", "content": "- Current public debt level:\n - 54 percent of GDP\n- Fiscal policy metrics and implications:\n - Keeping the overall fiscal deficit at 2.5 percent of GDP over the medium term would stabilize debt at around the current level, assuming that medium-term growth increases to around 3 percent and the interest rate path remains steady.\n - A slightly more ambitious target would improve budgetary spending room to deal with large infrastructure needs, high levels of poverty and inequality and the fiscal costs of an aging population." }, { "heading": "Poverty, inequality, and social policy", "content": "- Key statistics:\n - Poverty: over 43 percent of the population\n - Inequality: Gini Index of almost 50\n- Causes and policy observations:\n - Mexico’s meager per capita growth in recent decades contributes to high poverty rates.\n - Social policies have not been targeted as well as they could have been.\n - Conditional cash transfer programs have been very effective at reducing inequality.\n - Other social programs have disproportionately benefited individuals at the top rather than at the bottom of the income distribution.\n - The redistributive role of fiscal policy is generally weaker in Mexico than in other members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and could be expanded." }, { "heading": "Security, rule of law, and economic costs", "content": "- Security trends and economic impact:\n - Mexico experienced its most murderous year on record in 2017, and incidences of theft have also been on the rise.\n - High levels of crime impose direct and indirect economic costs due to damages and the need for costly security measures.\n - Firms may limit their activities and cancel investment plans in response to a weak security situation; small firms suffer these consequences disproportionately in Mexico.\n - Pemex is dealing with a continuous rise in pipeline taps with sizable costs to the firm’s operations.\n- Policy priority:\n - Improving security and strengthening the rule of law is critical to reducing crime and promoting economic activity." }, { "heading": "Female labor force participation and gender gaps", "content": "- Labor market observations:\n - Improving gender gaps in the country is vital for economic growth.\n - Despite significant improvements in female labor market participation and pay equality, women remain heavily underrepresented in the Mexican economy.\n - Lowering participation gaps for mothers remains a priority.\n- Policy levers:\n - Childcare and maternity and paternity benefits remain well below OECD peers and could help close participation gaps.\n\nSource: Mexico's Economic Outlook in Five Charts (IMF News, November 8, 2018).\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/en/News/country-focus\n- PRESS CENTER\n- latest annual economic assessment.\n- Latin America's economic outlook\n- Mexico and the IMF\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2018/11/07/na110818-mexico-economic-outlook-in-5-charts" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2018/11/07/na110818-mexico-economic-outlook-in-5-charts/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2018/11/07/na110818-mexico-economic-outlook-in-5-charts/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2018/11/07/na110818-mexico-economic-outlook-in-5-charts/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: November 8, 2018", "Mexico's economy grew moderately in 2018, supported mainly by domestic demand.", "Growth projections:", "Drivers and headwinds:", "Current public debt level:", "Fiscal policy metrics and implications:", "Key statistics:", "Causes and policy observations:", "Security trends and economic impact:", "Policy priority:", "Labor market observations:", "Policy levers:", "[https://www.imf.org/en/News/country-focus](https://www.imf.org/en/News/country-focus)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[latest annual economic assessment.](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2018/11/07/Mexico-2018-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Staff-Statement-46343)", "[Latin America's economic outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2018/10/17/NA101718-Recovery-in-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean-Has-Lost-Momentum)", "[Mexico and the IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/MEX)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2018/11/07/na110818-mexico-economic-outlook-in-5-charts/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2018/11/07/na110818-mexico-economic-outlook-in-5-charts/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2018/11/07/na110818-mexico-economic-outlook-in-5-charts/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-25T22:18:34.525Z" }