{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2018 Article IV Consultation with the United Arab Emirates",
  "publication": "IMF News, February 1, 2019",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2019/01/31/pr1926-united-arab-emirates-imf-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2019/01/31/pr1926-united-arab-emirates-imf-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation",
  "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2019/01/31/pr1926-united-arab-emirates-imf-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation/index.md",
  "summary": "The economy is starting to recover from the 2015–16 slowdown caused by a decline in oil prices.",
  "publishDate": "2019-02-01",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Economic outlook and growth projections",
      "content": "- The economy is starting to recover from the 2015–16 slowdown caused by a decline in oil prices.\n- Non-oil growth is projected to rise to 3.9 percent in 2019 and 4.2 percent in 2020.\n- Overall real GDP growth is projected at around 3.7 percent for 2019–20.\n- The oil sector’s prospects have improved with higher oil prices and output.\n- CPI inflation (average): 4.1 (2015), 1.6 (2016), 2.0 (2017), 3.5 (2018), 1.9 (2019)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal policy stance and projections",
      "content": "- Fiscal easing is underway to facilitate the recovery; authorities announced plans for a fiscal stimulus over the next three years, augmenting planned investment ahead of Expo 2020.\n- As private sector activity picks up and stimulus measures are phased out, fiscal consolidation is expected to resume to ensure sufficient saving of oil wealth for future generations.\n- Overall fiscal balance is projected to turn to a surplus next year on higher oil prices and remain positive over the medium term.\n- Public finances (percent of GDP):\n  - Revenue: 29.0 (2015), 28.9 (2016), 28.8 (2017), 28.2 (2018), 31.6 (2019).\n  - Taxes: 12.5 (2015), 8.9 (2016), 11.9 (2017), 13.3 (2018), 16.8 (2019).\n  - Other revenue: 16.2 (2015), 19.6 (2016), 16.6 (2017), 14.6 (2018), 14.5 (2019).\n  - Expenditures: 32.4 (2015), 30.9 (2016), 30.4 (2017), 29.9 (2018), 29.8 (2019).\n  - Expense: 29.7 (2015), 27.9 (2016), 27.8 (2017), 26.7 (2018).\n  - Net lending(+)/borrowing(-): -3.4 (2015), -2.0 (2016), -1.6 (2017), 1.8 (2018).\n  - Adjusted nonoil primary balance (percent of nonoil GDP): -27.7 (2015), -21.9 (2016), -25.7 (2017), -30.0 (2018), -27.0 (2019).\n  - Gross general government debt: 16.7 (2015), 19.4 (2016), 21.8 (2017), 20.9 (2018), 20.5 (2019)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "External sector and reserves",
      "content": "- The current account surplus nearly doubled last year to 6.9 percent of GDP and is expected to rise further to nearly 8 percent of GDP by 2019 owing to higher oil revenues.\n- Over the medium term, the current account surplus is projected to settle at a lower level as oil prices soften.\n- Downside external risks have increased, driven by tightening global financial conditions, heightened volatility in emerging markets, geopolitical tensions, and rising protectionism.\n- Selected external figures:\n  - Current account balance (in percent of GDP): 4.9 (2015), 6.9 (2016), 7.9 (2017), 6.9 (2018), 7.9 (2019).\n  - Exports and re-exports of goods (billions of U.S. dollars): 300 (2015), 295 (2016), 309 (2017), 329 (2018), 343 (2019).\n  - Oil exports (billions of U.S. dollars): 61 (2015), 46 (2016), 58 (2017), 75 (2018), 85 (2019).\n  - Imports of goods (billions of U.S. dollars): 224 (2015), 227 (2016), 229 (2017), 240 (2018), 246 (2019).\n  - Gross official reserves (billions of U.S. dollars): 94.0 (2015), 85.4 (2016), 95.4 (2017), 111.2 (2018), 129.5 (2019).\n  - External debt (percent of GDP): 67.6 (2015), 70.8 (2016), 73.5 (2017), 66.9 (2018), 64.2 (2019).\n  - In months of next year's imports of goods & services, net of re-exports: 6.7 (2015), 6.0 (2016), 7.6 (2017)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Banking sector and financial stability",
      "content": "- Although nonperforming loans rose during the slowdown, banks remain liquid and well capitalized.\n- Monetary and credit indicators (annual percent change):\n  - Credit to private sector: 8.4 (2015), 5.8 (2016), 0.7 (2017), 5.4 (2018).\n  - Broad money: 5.5 (2015), 3.3 (2016), 3.6 (2017), 7.1 (2018).\n  - Net foreign assets: -12.8 (2015), 26.8 (2016), 32.3 (2017), 18.5 (2018).\n  - Net domestic assets: 11.7 (2015), -1.8 (2016), -6.3 (2017), 1.5 (2018)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and recommendations",
      "content": "- Directors commended the authorities for their strong policy response to the prolonged decline in oil prices, including:\n  - Introduction of the value-added tax (VAT).\n  - Stepped up structural reforms.\n  - Upgrading of the prudential framework.\n- Directors noted improved economic prospects but stressed that external downside risks to the outlook have risen.\n- Supervisory and fiscal recommendations:\n  - Continue efforts to bolster economic growth and safeguard macro-financial stability.\n  - Increase supervisory vigilance and strengthen management of contingent liabilities from borrowing by government-related enterprises, government guarantees, and public-private partnerships.\n  - Support economic growth in the short term and resume fiscal consolidation once the recovery takes hold to ensure sufficient savings of exhaustible oil revenue for future generations and debt sustainability.\n  - Continue progress in strengthening fiscal policy frameworks and coordination to realize the Vision 2021 agenda, avoid policy procyclicality, and improve risk management.\n- Structural and data recommendations:\n  - Creating a vibrant, diversified, and knowledge-based economy requires continued reforms to boost the role of the private sector and promote talent and inclusiveness.\n  - Swiftly implement recently announced reforms, including the liberalization of foreign investment, while broadening and deepening policy initiatives to improve productivity and competitiveness.\n  - Continue progress on improving labor, fiscal, national accounts, and international investment position statistics to facilitate decision-making and enhance transparency.\n- Directors welcomed implementation of the Enhanced General Data Dissemination System and other steps to improve economic statistics."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key macroeconomic indicators (selected, as presented)",
      "content": "- Population: 10.1 million; nationals: 1 million.\n- Per capita GDP-2017: $37,879.\n- Unemployment rate: 4.2% (2009).\n- Oil sector detailed figures:\n  - Exports of oil (incl. oil products and gas) (in billions of U.S. dollars): 61.5 (2015), 46.5 (2016), 58.1 (2017), 75.4 (2018), 84.9 (2019).\n  - Average crude oil export price (in U.S. dollar per barrel): 52.4 (2015), 44.0 (2016), 54.4 (2017), 71.9 (2018), 72.3 (2019).\n- Nominal GDP (in billions of UAE dirhams): 1,315 (2015), 1,311 (2016), 1,405 (2017), 1,589 (2018), 1,673 (2019).\n- Nominal GDP (in billions of U.S. dollars): 358 (2015), 357 (2016), 383 (2017), 433 (2018), 456 (2019).\n- Real GDP (annual percent change): 5.1 (2015), 0.8 (2016), 3.7 (2017), 3.7 (2018–19 projection noted in text as around 3.7 for 2019–20).\n- Investment and saving (percent of GDP):\n  - Gross domestic investment: 25.8 (2015), 27.1 (2016), 21.6 (2017), 22.5 (2018), 23.1 (2019).\n  - Total fixed capital formation: 23.4 (2015), 24.5 (2016), 19.1 (2017), 20.3 (2018), 21.0 (2019).\n  - Public fixed capital formation: 11.1 (2015), 11.4 (2016), 8.2 (2017), 8.5 (2018), 8.7 (2019).\n  - Private fixed capital formation: 12.3 (2015), 13.0 (2016), 10.9 (2017), 11.8 (2018).\n  - Gross national saving: 30.7 (2015), 30.8 (2016), 28.5 (2017), 29.6 (2018), 31.0 (2019).\n\nIMF Executive Board Concludes 2018 Article IV Consultation with the United Arab Emirates (Press Release No. 19/26), February 1, 2019.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- United Arab Emirates and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2019/01/31/pr1926-united-arab-emirates-imf-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2019/01/31/pr1926-united-arab-emirates-imf-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2019/01/31/pr1926-united-arab-emirates-imf-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2019/01/31/pr1926-united-arab-emirates-imf-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: February 1, 2019",
    "The economy is starting to recover from the 2015–16 slowdown caused by a decline in oil prices.",
    "Non-oil growth is projected to rise to 3.9 percent in 2019 and 4.2 percent in 2020.",
    "Overall real GDP growth is projected at around 3.7 percent for 2019–20.",
    "The oil sector’s prospects have improved with higher oil prices and output.",
    "CPI inflation (average): 4.1 (2015), 1.6 (2016), 2.0 (2017), 3.5 (2018), 1.9 (2019).",
    "Fiscal easing is underway to facilitate the recovery; authorities announced plans for a fiscal stimulus over the next three years, augmenting planned investment ahead of Expo 2020.",
    "As private sector activity picks up and stimulus measures are phased out, fiscal consolidation is expected to resume to ensure sufficient saving of oil wealth for future generations.",
    "Overall fiscal balance is projected to turn to a surplus next year on higher oil prices and remain positive over the medium term.",
    "Public finances (percent of GDP):",
    "The current account surplus nearly doubled last year to 6.9 percent of GDP and is expected to rise further to nearly 8 percent of GDP by 2019 owing to higher oil revenues.",
    "Over the medium term, the current account surplus is projected to settle at a lower level as oil prices soften.",
    "Downside external risks have increased, driven by tightening global financial conditions, heightened volatility in emerging markets, geopolitical tensions, and rising protectionism.",
    "Selected external figures:",
    "Although nonperforming loans rose during the slowdown, banks remain liquid and well capitalized.",
    "Monetary and credit indicators (annual percent change):",
    "Directors commended the authorities for their strong policy response to the prolonged decline in oil prices, including:",
    "Directors noted improved economic prospects but stressed that external downside risks to the outlook have risen.",
    "Supervisory and fiscal recommendations:",
    "Structural and data recommendations:",
    "Directors welcomed implementation of the Enhanced General Data Dissemination System and other steps to improve economic statistics.",
    "Population: 10.1 million; nationals: 1 million.",
    "Per capita GDP-2017: $37,879.",
    "Unemployment rate: 4.2% (2009).",
    "Oil sector detailed figures:",
    "Nominal GDP (in billions of UAE dirhams): 1,315 (2015), 1,311 (2016), 1,405 (2017), 1,589 (2018), 1,673 (2019).",
    "Nominal GDP (in billions of U.S. dollars): 358 (2015), 357 (2016), 383 (2017), 433 (2018), 456 (2019).",
    "Real GDP (annual percent change): 5.1 (2015), 0.8 (2016), 3.7 (2017), 3.7 (2018–19 projection noted in text as around 3.7 for 2019–20).",
    "Investment and saving (percent of GDP):",
    "[United Arab Emirates and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ARE/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2019/01/31/pr1926-united-arab-emirates-imf-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation/index.md",
    "json": "/en/news/articles/2019/01/31/pr1926-united-arab-emirates-imf-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2019/01/31/pr1926-united-arab-emirates-imf-board-concludes-2018-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-25T22:29:53.062Z"
}