## Transcript of International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde's Opening Press Conference, 2019 Spring Meetings _IMF News, April 11, 2019_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [Transcript of International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde's Opening Press Conference, 2019 Spring Meetings](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2019/04/11/tr041119-transcript-managing-director-christine-lagarde-press-conference-2019-spring-meetings) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2019/04/11/tr041119-transcript-managing-director-christine-lagarde-press-conference-2019-spring-meetings/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2019/04/11/tr041119-transcript-managing-director-christine-lagarde-press-conference-2019-spring-meetings/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2019/04/11/tr041119-transcript-managing-director-christine-lagarde-press-conference-2019-spring-meetings/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: April 11, 2019 --- ### Global outlook and key projections - IMF global growth forecast for 2019: 3.3 percent. - IMF global growth forecast for 2020: 3.6 percent. - Characterization of global cycle: shift from "synchronized growth" covering 75 percent of the global economy a year ago to "synchronized slowdown" covering 70 percent of the global economy. - China growth forecasts cited: 6.3 percent in 2019 and 6.1 percent in 2020; recent Chinese stimulus measures are described as "welcomed" and "the right approach under the circumstances," while noting a continued shift "towards quality growth." - Russia: slight downgrades for 2019 and 2020 relative to prior forecasts; cited growth rates around "1.6, 1.7 percent" as examples of modest growth that call for deeper structural reforms. ### Downside risks and areas of fragility - Downside risks listed: unresolved trade tensions; high debt in some sectors and countries (public and corporate); weaker‑than‑expected growth in stressed economies; consequences of Brexit. - Brexit: the six‑month extension removed the immediate risk of a no‑deal Brexit on April 12; extension reduces short‑term risk but prolongs uncertainty. - Venezuela: IMF expresses very high concern about the humanitarian crisis and refugee flows; IMF capacity to act is contingent on members' diplomatic recognition of an authority to represent Venezuela; IMF has done preparatory work to act "as quickly and as swiftly as we can" once guidance is received. - Argentina: assessment that the program is beginning to work; economy "at a point where it is going to bottom out"; social protection is a key priority and continuity of program work is urged. ### Policy recommendations — principles and priorities - Two overarching principles recommended: - "Do no harm" — avoid wrong policies, especially protectionist measures (tariffs and other barriers) and unfair/disortive trade practices. - "Do the right thing" — country‑specific, multiple policy actions rather than one‑size‑fits‑all. - Specific policy priorities: - "Fix the roof": pursue outstanding structural reforms to boost potential output and support convergence for developing countries. - "Create more room in order to resist the next crisis": enhance resilience by making smarter use of fiscal policy and strengthening financial sector policies and discipline. - Tackle issues with high potential to boost revenue, growth, and inclusion: reform the international taxation system (in particular corporate taxation), strengthen competition frameworks, and "fight corruption at both ends, supply and demand." - Strengthen international cooperation and multilateralism with a strong focus on people. ### Fiscal, monetary, and financial policy guidance - Fiscal policy: many countries are urged to rebuild fiscal buffers; countries in fiscal surplus should use space to invest; fiscal policy should be used together with other tools rather than relying solely on monetary policy. - Monetary policy: central banks have provided accommodation and clearer communication (Fed, ECB, Bank of England cited); markets have taken comfort from central bank communications; IMF cautions limited remaining room in many advanced economies due to low interest rates and large central bank balance sheets. - On reliance on monetary policy: IMF view is that "policies should use all the tools in the toolbox" and monetary authorities should "stay accommodating" while facilitating necessary fiscal measures. ### Debt transparency, lending, and surveillance reforms - IMF and World Bank working together to improve debt transparency: identify terms, conditions, volumes, and maturities; this work has been requested by the G20. - Encouragement for borrowers and lenders to align with G20 debt principles; recognition that future restructurings will be more complicated due to multiplicity of lenders and nonpublic creditors. - Surveillance reform objectives: - Move toward "comprehensive surveillance" that harnesses institutional competencies (fiscal, market and monetary policy, capacity development) to deliver country services. - Leverage knowledge management, data, and technologies for speedier delivery and more integrated Article IV work. - Continue improvements to External Sector Report and methodologies for assessing currency and external positions. ### Country‑level actions and program updates - Mozambique: Government submitted a request for the Rapid Credit Facility to provide speedy access to concessional financing following cyclone Idai; IMF moving forward "prompt[ly]" pending Board approval. - Zimbabwe: IMF staff announced agreement with the Zimbabwean government on a new Staff‑Monitored Program to address deep economic problems and serve as a stepping stone to greater stability. - Egypt: Egypt has delivered under its Extended Fund Facility; program near completion with the next review expected to be completed satisfactorily; IMF noted ownership and large sacrifices made by the Egyptian people; emphasis on supporting entrepreneurship of young people. - Tunisia: IMF mission recently returned; discussions ongoing with authorities on specific points (e.g., pricing) with finalization expected in coming days. - Nigeria: IMF recommendation to remove fossil fuel subsidies grounded in a general principle; cited IMF/Fiscal Affairs Department estimate that "no less than about $5.2 trillion" were spent on fuel subsidies and related consequences in 2015; removal should be accompanied by social protection safety nets and improved revenue mobilization given Nigeria's low tax‑to‑GDP ratio. - Russia: macro indicators (debt, current account surplus, fiscal surplus) characterized as "pretty healthy" though structural reforms needed to raise growth potential. - Venezuela: IMF is persona non grata inside Venezuela and lacks field information; response and financial involvement depend on members' diplomatic guidance; IMF prepared to support a large, multi‑pronged response when authorized by membership. - Argentina: program showing signs of working; expectation that economy will bottom out; candidates should not abandon program priorities, especially social protection. ### Views on specific policy ideas and theories - Trade: long‑term benefits of trade integration for productivity, innovation, growth, employment, and lower cost of living; need to address dislocations and unfair practices; support for WTO system reform. - Fuel subsidies: removal recommended as a general principle to free resources for health, education, and infrastructure, subject to adequate social protection for vulnerable groups. - Modern Monetary Theory (MMT): IMF view is that MMT is not a panacea; "very, very, very limited circumstances where it could work," such as liquidity traps or deflation, and even then with significant caveats and risks when interest rates eventually rise. *Transcript of International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde's Opening Press Conference, 2019 Spring Meetings* --- ## References - [Christine Lagarde](https://www.imf.org/en/About/senior-officials/Bios/christine-lagarde) - [People's Republic of China and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/CHN/index.htm) - [Arab Republic of Egypt and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/EGY/index.htm) - [Nigeria and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/NGA/index.htm) - [República Bolivariana de Venezuela and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/VEN/index.htm) - [Russian Federation and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/RUS/index.htm) - [Tunisia and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/TUN/index.htm) - [IMF Surveillance -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance) - [Transcripts](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews) - [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2019/04/11/tr041119-transcript-managing-director-christine-lagarde-press-conference-2019-spring-meetings_