{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2019 Article IV Consultation with Iraq",
  "publication": "IMF News, July 26, 2019",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2019/07/26/pr19301-iraq-imf-executive-board-concludes-2019-article-iv-consultation-with-iraq",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2019/07/26/pr19301-iraq-imf-executive-board-concludes-2019-article-iv-consultation-with-iraq",
  "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2019/07/26/pr19301-iraq-imf-executive-board-concludes-2019-article-iv-consultation-with-iraq/index.md",
  "summary": "Improved security and higher oil prices have reduced near-term vulnerabilities.",
  "publishDate": "2019-07-26",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Near-term economic developments and outlook",
      "content": "- Improved security and higher oil prices have reduced near-term vulnerabilities.\n- Large fiscal and current account surpluses—around 8 and 6 percent of GDP, respectively—were recorded in 2018.\n- Gross international reserves reached $65 billion by end-2018.\n- Non-oil GDP rose by only 0.8 percent year-on-year in 2018 amid weak execution of reconstruction and public investment.\n- Overall GDP contracted by around 0.6 percent in 2018 as oil production was cut to comply with the OPEC+ agreement.\n- The 2019 budget implies a sizable fiscal loosening:\n  - Current spending is expected to increase by 27 percent year-on-year, in part due to a higher public sector wage bill.\n  - Revenues will be dampened by the abolition of non-oil taxes.\n  - The budget is projected to shift to a deficit of 4 percent of GDP in 2019, and reserves are projected to decline.\n- Staff projections and medium-term outlook:\n  - The fiscal and external positions are expected to continue to deteriorate over the medium term absent policy changes—with reserves falling below adequate levels and fiscal buffers eroded.\n  - Although the level of public debt will remain sustainable, gross fiscal financing needs will increase.\n  - Non-oil GDP growth is projected to reach 5½ in 2019 but subside over the medium term."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Risks to the outlook",
      "content": "- Major risk: a fall in oil prices in a context of highly volatile oil prices, which would lower exports and budgetary revenues, leading to an even sharper decline in reserves or higher public debt.\n- Additional risks: geopolitical tensions; potential for social unrest amid weak public services and lack of progress in combatting corruption."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal and encouraged the authorities to use the improved security situation and higher oil prices to implement policies and structural reforms to:\n  - Ensure macroeconomic and financial stability.\n  - Tackle long-standing social problems.\n  - Promote sustainable and inclusive growth.\n- Fiscal framework and policy:\n  - Building a robust fiscal framework is essential to maintain fiscal and macroeconomic stability and strengthen buffers.\n  - Adopt a risk‑ and rules-based approach to fiscal policy as part of broader reforms to manage oil revenue more effectively and reduce procyclicality.\n  - Shift to a more growth-friendly composition of expenditure.\n  - Support scaling up reconstruction and development expenditure gradually in line with improving absorptive capacity.\n  - Strengthen public financial management to ensure public spending is appropriately monitored and to reduce vulnerabilities to corruption.\n  - Directors welcomed the newly adopted General Financial Management Law and encouraged its full implementation.\n- Fiscal adjustment priorities:\n  - Gradual fiscal adjustment, including containing current primary spending and boosting non-oil revenues, is essential for maintaining fiscal and debt sustainability.\n  - Spending measures should give priority to containing the growth in wage bill and lowering subsidies to the electricity sector.\n  - Protect the poorest and most vulnerable from the adjustment process.\n- Financial sector and inclusion:\n  - An overhaul of the banking sector is necessary to maintain financial stability.\n  - Restructure large state-owned banks, enhance supervision, and implement other reforms to increase financial intermediation.\n  - Increase financial inclusion, especially for the SME sector, to absorb entrants to the labor market.\n- Governance, anti-corruption, and public investment management:\n  - Build public institutions and enhance governance; Fund capacity development can support these efforts.\n  - Welcome progress in developing an anti-corruption framework; call for further legal modifications and stronger coordination between government agencies.\n  - Continue to strengthen the framework for Anti-money laundering and combatting the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT).\n  - Strengthen Public Investment Management framework to ensure spending is well directed and donor funds targeting reconstruction are used efficiently.\n- Engagement:\n  - Directors looked forward to continued close engagement between the authorities and the Fund in the context of post program monitoring."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics (Iraq: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2015–24)",
      "content": "- Real GDP (percentage change): 2015: 2.5, 2016: 15.2, 2017: -2.5, 2018: -0.6, 2019: 4.6, 2020: 5.3, 2021: 2.6, 2022: 2.3, 2023: 2.1, 2024: 2.1\n- Non-oil real GDP (percentage change): 2015: -14.4, 2016: 1.3, 2017: 0.8, 2018: 5.4, 2019: 5.0, 2020: 4.1, 2021: 3.4, 2022: 2.7, 2023: (not listed), 2024: (not listed)\n- GDP deflator (percentage change): 2015: -26.1, 2016: -13.4, 2017: 14.6, 2018: 15.4, 2019: -4.5, 2020: 2.8, 2021: 3.1, 2022: 3.3\n- GDP per capita (US$): 2015: 5,047, 2016: 4,843, 2017: 5,263, 2018: 5,882, 2019: 5,728, 2020: 6,017, 2021: 6,172, 2022: 6,326, 2023: 6,486, 2024: 6,666\n- GDP (in ID trillion): 2015: 207.2, 2016: 206.7, 2017: 231.0, 2018: 265.0, 2019: 264.8, 2020: 285.4, 2021: 300.4, 2022: 315.9, 2023: 332.3, 2024: 350.4\n- Non-oil GDP (in ID trillion): 2015: 137.3, 2016: 138.3, 2017: 140.8, 2018: 145.6, 2019: 158.1, 2020: 173.2, 2021: 188.1, 2022: 202.8, 2023: 217.1, 2024: 232.6\n- GDP (in US$ billion): 2015: 177.7, 2016: 175.2, 2017: 195.5, 2018: 224.2, 2019: 224.1, 2020: 241.5, 2021: 254.1, 2022: 267.3, 2023: 281.1, 2024: 296.5\n- Oil production (mbpd): 2015: 3.72, 2016: 4.63, 2017: 4.47, 2018: 4.41, 2019: 4.59, 2020: 4.84, 2021: 4.93, 2022: 5.01, 2023: 5.10, 2024: 5.18\n- Oil exports (mbpd): 2015: 3.35, 2016: 3.79, 2017: 3.80, 2018: 3.86, 2019: 4.03, 2020: 4.25, 2021: 4.33, 2022: 4.40, 2023: 4.55\n- Iraq oil export prices (US$ pb) 1/: 2015: 45.9, 2016: 35.6, 2017: 48.7, 2018: 65.2, 2019: 56.0, 2020: 55.8, 2021: 54.9, 2022: 54.4, 2023: 54.8\n- Consumer price inflation (percentage change; end of period): 2018: 2.0\n- Consumer price inflation (percentage change; average): 2015: 1.4, 2016: 0.5, 2017: 0.1, 2018: 0.4\n- Gross domestic investment (percent of GDP): 2015: 24.9, 2016: 20.8, 2017: 16.7, 2018: 12.9, 2019: 18.8, 2020: 16.0, 2021: 15.6, 2022: (not fully listed)\n  - Of which: public (percent of GDP): 2015: 11.5, 2016: 8.3, 2017: 10.6, 2018: 8.4, 2019: 7.5, 2020: 7.0, 2021: 6.8, 2022: 6.6\n- Gross domestic consumption (percent of GDP): 2015: 81.2, 2016: 87.0, 2017: 80.8, 2018: 79.1, 2019: 84.5, 2020: 85.4, 2021: 86.8, 2022: 87.9, 2023: 88.6, 2024: 89.6\n- Gross national savings (percent of GDP): 2015: 22.6, 2016: 21.8, 2017: 21.2, 2018: 26.5, 2019: 26.3, 2020: 26.4, 2021: 26.2\n- Saving - Investment balance (percent of GDP): 2015: -6.5, 2016: -8.3, 2017: 6.9, 2018: -5.2, 2019: -4.2, 2020: -4.3, 2021: -4.6, 2022: -5.3, 2023: -6.0\n- Government revenue and grants (percent of GDP): 2015: 30.6, 2016: 26.8, 2017: 33.0, 2018: 39.8, 2019: 40.5, 2020: 39.6, 2021: 37.9, 2022: 36.5, 2023: 35.5, 2024: 34.6\n  - Government oil revenue (percent of GDP): 2015: 27.8, 2016: 22.9, 2017: 28.9, 2018: 36.7, 2019: 37.2, 2020: 36.3, 2021: 34.5, 2022: 33.1, 2023: 32.0, 2024: 31.0\n  - Government non-oil revenue (percent of GDP): 2015: 4.0, 2016: 4.2, 2017: 3.5\n- Expenditure (percent of GDP), of which: 2015: 43.4, 2016: 40.7, 2017: 44.6, 2018: 43.1, 2019: 41.2\n  - Current expenditure (percent of GDP): 2015: 29.3, 2016: 26.7, 2017: 33.9, 2018: 34.7, 2019: 33.6, 2020: 33.5, 2021: 33.7\n  - Capital expenditure (percent of GDP): (not fully listed)\n- Overall fiscal balance (including grants, percent of GDP): 2015: -12.8, 2016: -13.9, 2017: -1.6, 2018: 7.9, 2019: -4.1, 2020: -3.5, 2021: -3.3, 2022: -4.0, 2023: -5.0, 2024: -5.9\n- Non-oil primary fiscal balance, accrual basis (percent of non-oil GDP): 2015: -46.5, 2016: -43.3, 2017: -39.4, 2018: -42.4, 2019: -56.9, 2020: -52.1, 2021: -49.2, 2022: -47.1, 2023: -46.2, 2024: -45.3\n- Adjusted Non-oil primary fiscal balance, accrual basis (excl. KRG, percent of non-oil GDP) 2/: 2015: -44.7, 2016: -40.5, 2017: -50.1, 2018: -46.0, 2019: -43.6, 2020: -41.8, 2021: -41.0, 2022: -40.2\n- Adjusted non-oil primary expenditure (excl. KRG, percent of non-oil GDP) 3/: 2015: 48.9, 2016: 49.2, 2017: 46.3, 2018: 46.2, 2019: 55.6, 2020: 51.5, 2021: 49.1, 2022: 47.2, 2023: 45.5\n- Adjusted non-oil primary expenditure (excl. KRG, annual real growth, percent) 3/: 2015: -24.7, 2016: 0.9, 2017: 29.9, 2018: 1.6\n- Total government debt (in percent of GDP) 4/: 2015: 56.2, 2016: 64.2, 2017: 58.9, 2018: 49.3, 2019: 51.4, 2020: 50.5, 2021: 50.6, 2022: 53.6, 2023: 56.4\n- Total government debt (in US$ billion) 4/: 2015: 99.9, 2016: 112.5, 2017: 115.2, 2018: 110.4, 2019: 115.3, 2020: 121.9, 2021: 128.5, 2022: 137.5, 2023: 150.7, 2024: 167.3\n- External government debt (in percent of GDP): 2015: 37.1, 2016: 32.2, 2017: 31.5, 2018: 30.5, 2019: 28.4\n- External government debt (in US$ billion): 2015: 66.1, 2016: 65.0, 2017: 69.5, 2018: 68.7, 2019: 72.2, 2020: 76.2, 2021: 77.6, 2022: 75.8, 2023: 75.3, 2024: 73.8\n- Growth in reserve money (percent): 2015: -12.0, 2016: 9.2, 2017: -4.4, 2018: 6.7, 2019: 4.7, 2020: 4.9, 2021: 5.1\n- Growth in broad money (percent): 2015: -9.1, 2016: 7.1, 2017: 6.2, 2018: 6.0, 2019: 5.9\n- Exports of goods (percent of GDP): 2015: 31.8, 2016: 28.6, 2017: 34.8, 2018: 37.0, 2019: 36.2, 2020: 34.4, 2021: 31.2\n- Imports of goods (percent of GDP): 2015: -31.9, 2016: -30.3, 2017: -27.1, 2018: -27.8, 2019: -33.5, 2020: -32.0, 2021: -31.2, 2022: -31.1, 2023: -30.8, 2024: -30.7\n- Overall external balance (percent of GDP): 2015: -6.7, 2016: -3.7, 2017: 6.3, 2018: -1.1, 2019: -3.8, 2020: -4.7\n- Gross reserves (in US$ billion): 2015: 54.1, 2016: 49.4, 2017: 64.7, 2018: 57.2, 2019: 53.5, 2020: 48.5, 2021: 38.8, 2022: 28.2, 2023: 14.3\n- Total GIR (in months of imports of goods and services): 2015: 9.3, 2016: 7.8, 2017: 7.3, 2018: 8.0, 2019: 5.5, 2020: 2.9\n- Exchange rate (dinar per US$; period average): 2015: 1,166, 2016: 1,180, 2017: 1,182\n- Real effective exchange rate (percent change, end of period) 5/: 2015: -5.1\n\nSource: IMF Communications Department, July 26, 2019.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- Iraq and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- The IMF and Good Governance -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2019/07/26/pr19301-iraq-imf-executive-board-concludes-2019-article-iv-consultation-with-iraq"
    }
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    "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2019/07/26/pr19301-iraq-imf-executive-board-concludes-2019-article-iv-consultation-with-iraq/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2019/07/26/pr19301-iraq-imf-executive-board-concludes-2019-article-iv-consultation-with-iraq/index.json)",
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    "Published: July 26, 2019",
    "Improved security and higher oil prices have reduced near-term vulnerabilities.",
    "Large fiscal and current account surpluses—around 8 and 6 percent of GDP, respectively—were recorded in 2018.",
    "Gross international reserves reached $65 billion by end-2018.",
    "Non-oil GDP rose by only 0.8 percent year-on-year in 2018 amid weak execution of reconstruction and public investment.",
    "Overall GDP contracted by around 0.6 percent in 2018 as oil production was cut to comply with the OPEC+ agreement.",
    "The 2019 budget implies a sizable fiscal loosening:",
    "Staff projections and medium-term outlook:",
    "Major risk: a fall in oil prices in a context of highly volatile oil prices, which would lower exports and budgetary revenues, leading to an even sharper decline in reserves or higher public debt.",
    "Additional risks: geopolitical tensions; potential for social unrest amid weak public services and lack of progress in combatting corruption.",
    "Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal and encouraged the authorities to use the improved security situation and higher oil prices to implement policies and structural reforms to:",
    "Fiscal framework and policy:",
    "Fiscal adjustment priorities:",
    "Financial sector and inclusion:",
    "Governance, anti-corruption, and public investment management:",
    "Engagement:",
    "Real GDP (percentage change): 2015: 2.5, 2016: 15.2, 2017: -2.5, 2018: -0.6, 2019: 4.6, 2020: 5.3, 2021: 2.6, 2022: 2.3, 2023: 2.1, 2024: 2.1",
    "Non-oil real GDP (percentage change): 2015: -14.4, 2016: 1.3, 2017: 0.8, 2018: 5.4, 2019: 5.0, 2020: 4.1, 2021: 3.4, 2022: 2.7, 2023: (not listed), 2024: (not listed)",
    "GDP deflator (percentage change): 2015: -26.1, 2016: -13.4, 2017: 14.6, 2018: 15.4, 2019: -4.5, 2020: 2.8, 2021: 3.1, 2022: 3.3",
    "GDP per capita (US$): 2015: 5,047, 2016: 4,843, 2017: 5,263, 2018: 5,882, 2019: 5,728, 2020: 6,017, 2021: 6,172, 2022: 6,326, 2023: 6,486, 2024: 6,666",
    "GDP (in ID trillion): 2015: 207.2, 2016: 206.7, 2017: 231.0, 2018: 265.0, 2019: 264.8, 2020: 285.4, 2021: 300.4, 2022: 315.9, 2023: 332.3, 2024: 350.4",
    "Non-oil GDP (in ID trillion): 2015: 137.3, 2016: 138.3, 2017: 140.8, 2018: 145.6, 2019: 158.1, 2020: 173.2, 2021: 188.1, 2022: 202.8, 2023: 217.1, 2024: 232.6",
    "GDP (in US$ billion): 2015: 177.7, 2016: 175.2, 2017: 195.5, 2018: 224.2, 2019: 224.1, 2020: 241.5, 2021: 254.1, 2022: 267.3, 2023: 281.1, 2024: 296.5",
    "Oil production (mbpd): 2015: 3.72, 2016: 4.63, 2017: 4.47, 2018: 4.41, 2019: 4.59, 2020: 4.84, 2021: 4.93, 2022: 5.01, 2023: 5.10, 2024: 5.18",
    "Oil exports (mbpd): 2015: 3.35, 2016: 3.79, 2017: 3.80, 2018: 3.86, 2019: 4.03, 2020: 4.25, 2021: 4.33, 2022: 4.40, 2023: 4.55",
    "Iraq oil export prices (US$ pb) 1/: 2015: 45.9, 2016: 35.6, 2017: 48.7, 2018: 65.2, 2019: 56.0, 2020: 55.8, 2021: 54.9, 2022: 54.4, 2023: 54.8",
    "Consumer price inflation (percentage change; end of period): 2018: 2.0",
    "Consumer price inflation (percentage change; average): 2015: 1.4, 2016: 0.5, 2017: 0.1, 2018: 0.4",
    "Gross domestic investment (percent of GDP): 2015: 24.9, 2016: 20.8, 2017: 16.7, 2018: 12.9, 2019: 18.8, 2020: 16.0, 2021: 15.6, 2022: (not fully listed)",
    "Gross domestic consumption (percent of GDP): 2015: 81.2, 2016: 87.0, 2017: 80.8, 2018: 79.1, 2019: 84.5, 2020: 85.4, 2021: 86.8, 2022: 87.9, 2023: 88.6, 2024: 89.6",
    "Gross national savings (percent of GDP): 2015: 22.6, 2016: 21.8, 2017: 21.2, 2018: 26.5, 2019: 26.3, 2020: 26.4, 2021: 26.2",
    "Saving - Investment balance (percent of GDP): 2015: -6.5, 2016: -8.3, 2017: 6.9, 2018: -5.2, 2019: -4.2, 2020: -4.3, 2021: -4.6, 2022: -5.3, 2023: -6.0",
    "Government revenue and grants (percent of GDP): 2015: 30.6, 2016: 26.8, 2017: 33.0, 2018: 39.8, 2019: 40.5, 2020: 39.6, 2021: 37.9, 2022: 36.5, 2023: 35.5, 2024: 34.6",
    "Expenditure (percent of GDP), of which: 2015: 43.4, 2016: 40.7, 2017: 44.6, 2018: 43.1, 2019: 41.2",
    "Overall fiscal balance (including grants, percent of GDP): 2015: -12.8, 2016: -13.9, 2017: -1.6, 2018: 7.9, 2019: -4.1, 2020: -3.5, 2021: -3.3, 2022: -4.0, 2023: -5.0, 2024: -5.9",
    "Non-oil primary fiscal balance, accrual basis (percent of non-oil GDP): 2015: -46.5, 2016: -43.3, 2017: -39.4, 2018: -42.4, 2019: -56.9, 2020: -52.1, 2021: -49.2, 2022: -47.1, 2023: -46.2, 2024: -45.3",
    "Adjusted Non-oil primary fiscal balance, accrual basis (excl. KRG, percent of non-oil GDP) 2/: 2015: -44.7, 2016: -40.5, 2017: -50.1, 2018: -46.0, 2019: -43.6, 2020: -41.8, 2021: -41.0, 2022: -40.2",
    "Adjusted non-oil primary expenditure (excl. KRG, percent of non-oil GDP) 3/: 2015: 48.9, 2016: 49.2, 2017: 46.3, 2018: 46.2, 2019: 55.6, 2020: 51.5, 2021: 49.1, 2022: 47.2, 2023: 45.5",
    "Adjusted non-oil primary expenditure (excl. KRG, annual real growth, percent) 3/: 2015: -24.7, 2016: 0.9, 2017: 29.9, 2018: 1.6",
    "Total government debt (in percent of GDP) 4/: 2015: 56.2, 2016: 64.2, 2017: 58.9, 2018: 49.3, 2019: 51.4, 2020: 50.5, 2021: 50.6, 2022: 53.6, 2023: 56.4",
    "Total government debt (in US$ billion) 4/: 2015: 99.9, 2016: 112.5, 2017: 115.2, 2018: 110.4, 2019: 115.3, 2020: 121.9, 2021: 128.5, 2022: 137.5, 2023: 150.7, 2024: 167.3",
    "External government debt (in percent of GDP): 2015: 37.1, 2016: 32.2, 2017: 31.5, 2018: 30.5, 2019: 28.4",
    "External government debt (in US$ billion): 2015: 66.1, 2016: 65.0, 2017: 69.5, 2018: 68.7, 2019: 72.2, 2020: 76.2, 2021: 77.6, 2022: 75.8, 2023: 75.3, 2024: 73.8",
    "Growth in reserve money (percent): 2015: -12.0, 2016: 9.2, 2017: -4.4, 2018: 6.7, 2019: 4.7, 2020: 4.9, 2021: 5.1",
    "Growth in broad money (percent): 2015: -9.1, 2016: 7.1, 2017: 6.2, 2018: 6.0, 2019: 5.9",
    "Exports of goods (percent of GDP): 2015: 31.8, 2016: 28.6, 2017: 34.8, 2018: 37.0, 2019: 36.2, 2020: 34.4, 2021: 31.2",
    "Imports of goods (percent of GDP): 2015: -31.9, 2016: -30.3, 2017: -27.1, 2018: -27.8, 2019: -33.5, 2020: -32.0, 2021: -31.2, 2022: -31.1, 2023: -30.8, 2024: -30.7",
    "Overall external balance (percent of GDP): 2015: -6.7, 2016: -3.7, 2017: 6.3, 2018: -1.1, 2019: -3.8, 2020: -4.7",
    "Gross reserves (in US$ billion): 2015: 54.1, 2016: 49.4, 2017: 64.7, 2018: 57.2, 2019: 53.5, 2020: 48.5, 2021: 38.8, 2022: 28.2, 2023: 14.3",
    "Total GIR (in months of imports of goods and services): 2015: 9.3, 2016: 7.8, 2017: 7.3, 2018: 8.0, 2019: 5.5, 2020: 2.9",
    "Exchange rate (dinar per US$; period average): 2015: 1,166, 2016: 1,180, 2017: 1,182",
    "Real effective exchange rate (percent change, end of period) 5/: 2015: -5.1",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
    "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)",
    "[Iraq and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/IRQ/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[The IMF and Good Governance -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/sheets/2023/the-imf-and-good-governance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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