{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2020 Article IV Consultation with the Russian Federation",
  "publication": "IMF News, February 9, 2021",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/02/08/pr2136-russia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/02/08/pr2136-russia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation",
  "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2021/02/08/pr2136-russia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation/index.md",
  "summary": "Press Release No. 21/36; February 9, 2021.",
  "publishDate": "2021-02-09",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Press Release No. 21/36; February 9, 2021.\n- The Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation with the Russian Federation.\n- Russia entered the COVID-19 crisis with low growth but strong policy frameworks and significant buffers: disciplined fiscal policy since 2014, low public debt, reserve accumulation, introduction of inflation targeting and significant de-dollarization."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Economic impact of COVID-19 and policy response",
      "content": "- Economic contraction and resilience:\n  - \"The Russian economy, which contracted by 3.1 percent last year (less than the 3.6 percent contraction projected in the Staff Report), has proven more resilient than many other emerging economies.\"\n  - Contributing factors to resilience: relatively small service sector, large share of protected public employment, COVID-related restrictions that excluded much of the industrial sector.\n- Policy response:\n  - Fiscal support around 4.5 percent of GDP targeted at the health sector, vulnerable households and the unemployed, and systemically important firms and firms in the most affected sectors.\n  - Monetary policy: policy rate cut by 200bps to a record-low 4.25 percent; introduction of new liquidity instruments; liquidity support to banks; capital buffers released; regulatory forbearance on loan classification and provisioning.\n  - External and price effects: low oil prices and geopolitical tensions triggered exchange rate depreciation and some increase in inflation; current account surplus narrowed on low oil prices and weak oil demand."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Outlook and scenarios",
      "content": "- Recovery projection and drivers:\n  - \"The ongoing recovery is projected to accelerate towards the middle of 2021 as the second wave of the pandemic recedes, COVID-19 vaccines become widely available, and oil production cuts are tapered in line with the OPEC+ agreement.\"\n  - Authorities intend to withdraw fiscal stimulus as conditions improve.\n- Uncertainties and risks:\n  - Downside risks: spillovers from strict containment measures in key trading partners; geopolitical risks.\n  - Upside possibility: effective vaccine availability reducing the risk of a protracted pandemic; possible confidence effects and pent-up demand leading to stronger-than-projected recovery.\n  - \"An effective vaccine rollout will be key.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations",
      "content": "- General assessment:\n  - Directors commended the sizeable policy response which should help limit scarring and put a floor on the downturn.\n  - Short-term risks remain tilted to the downside given the global pandemic situation and geopolitical tensions.\n- Fiscal policy guidance:\n  - Allow for withdrawal of fiscal support as recovery takes hold, but remain vigilant and ready to extend support if needed.\n  - Welcomed decision to keep the maximum unemployment benefit at its post-March level; suggested considering doing likewise for all unemployment benefits until employment improves, while removing disincentives for formal sector work.\n  - Should downside risks materialize, use substantial fiscal space to deploy stronger support.\n  - Commended growth-friendly tax reforms (e.g., permanent reduction of the payroll tax for SMEs) and better targeting of social assistance.\n  - Recommended gradually phasing out domestic fuel consumption subsidies while cushioning impacts on vulnerable groups.\n- Monetary and financial sector guidance:\n  - Welcomed monetary loosening in 2020 and new liquidity instruments.\n  - Saw room for additional monetary accommodation amid significant economic slack to prevent inflation from sliding below target as one-off shocks dissipate; nevertheless generally saw merit in authorities’ wait-and-see approach.\n  - Underscored appropriateness of foreign exchange operations to address disorderly market conditions and recommended separating these clearly from operations under the fiscal rule.\n  - Banks: welcomed significant buffers; crisis-related losses should not pose a system-wide capital threat. Called for close tracking of restructured loans while forbearance remains in place. Forbearance should not be extended as it obscures true bank health.\n  - If provisioning pushes banks’ capital below regulatory minima, sound and solvent banks could be allowed extended time to restore capital.\n  - Welcomed legislative efforts to expand the Bank of Russia’s macroprudential toolkit.\n  - Noted progress in Russia’s AML/CFT framework but called for further effective steps to address remaining risks.\n- Structural reform priorities:\n  - Increasing potential growth and reigniting income convergence requires far-reaching structural reforms: reduce state footprint, improve business climate, increase competition, address governance shortcomings, reduce regulatory burden.\n  - Emphasized using national projects as an opportunity to tackle structural bottlenecks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected macroeconomic indicators (highlights from 2017–26 table)",
      "content": "- Real GDP (Annual percent change):\n  - 2017: 1.8\n  - 2018: 2.5\n  - 2019: 1.3\n  - 2020: -3.6\n  - 2021 Projection: 3.0\n  - 2022 Projection: 3.9\n- Real domestic demand (Annual percent change):\n  - 2019: 2.2\n  - 2020: -5.8\n  - 2021 Projection: 5.1\n- Consumption (Annual percent change):\n  - 2019: 3.5\n  - 2020: 2.9\n  - 2021 Projection: -6.2\n  - 2022 Projection: 5.6\n- Investment (Annual percent change):\n  - 2019: -1.6\n  - 2020: 3.2\n  - 2021 Projection: -5.0\n- Consumer prices, period average:\n  - 2017: 3.7\n  - 2018: 4.5\n  - 2019: 4.3\n  - 2020: 4.0\n- Output gap (percent of potential GDP):\n  - 2019: -0.2\n  - 2020: -3.0\n  - 2021 Projection: -1.4\n- Public sector, General government revenue (Percent of GDP):\n  - 2017: 33.4\n  - 2018: 35.5\n  - 2019: 35.8\n  - 2020: 34.6\n  - 2026 Projection: 33.6\n- General government expenditures (Percent of GDP):\n  - 2017: 34.8\n  - 2018: 32.6\n  - 2019: 39.2\n  - 2020: 36.7\n- Net lending/borrowing (overall balance, Percent of GDP):\n  - 2017: -1.5\n  - 2018: -4.6\n  - 2019: -2.3\n  - 2020: -1.2\n  - 2026 Projection: -0.8\n- Non-oil primary balance (Percent of GDP):\n  - 2017: -8.4\n  - 2018: -6.6\n  - 2019: -10.3\n  - 2020: -7.1\n- Gross international reserves (Billions of U.S. dollars):\n  - 2017: 432.7\n  - 2018: 468.5\n  - 2019: 554.4\n  - 2020: 583.4\n  - 2026 Projection: 624.0\n- Nominal GDP (billions of U.S. dollars):\n  - 2017: 1,575\n  - 2018: 1,653\n  - 2019: 1,689\n  - 2020: 1,431\n  - 2026 Projection: 1,893\n- Real per capita GDP, PPP dollars:\n  - 2017: 25,999\n  - 2018: 26,677\n  - 2019: 27,041\n  - 2020: 25,978\n  - 2026 Projection: 30,324\n- Exchange rate (rubles per U.S. dollar, period average):\n  - 2017: 58.3\n  - 2018: 62.8\n  - 2019: 64.6\n  - 2020: 72.3\n  - 2026 Projection: 80.7\n- Brent oil price (U.S. dollars per barrel):\n  - 2017: 54.4\n  - 2018: 71.1\n  - 2019: 64.0\n  - 2020: 42.3\n  - 2026 Projection: 49.4\n\nIMF Press Release No. 21/36; February 9, 2021.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- Russian Federation and the IMF\n- IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/02/08/pr2136-russia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2021/02/08/pr2136-russia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2021/02/08/pr2136-russia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2021/02/08/pr2136-russia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: February 9, 2021",
    "Press Release No. 21/36; February 9, 2021.",
    "The Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation with the Russian Federation.",
    "Russia entered the COVID-19 crisis with low growth but strong policy frameworks and significant buffers: disciplined fiscal policy since 2014, low public debt, reserve accumulation, introduction of inflation targeting and significant de-dollarization.",
    "Economic contraction and resilience:",
    "Policy response:",
    "Recovery projection and drivers:",
    "Uncertainties and risks:",
    "General assessment:",
    "Fiscal policy guidance:",
    "Monetary and financial sector guidance:",
    "Structural reform priorities:",
    "Real GDP (Annual percent change):",
    "Real domestic demand (Annual percent change):",
    "Consumption (Annual percent change):",
    "Investment (Annual percent change):",
    "Consumer prices, period average:",
    "Output gap (percent of potential GDP):",
    "Public sector, General government revenue (Percent of GDP):",
    "General government expenditures (Percent of GDP):",
    "Net lending/borrowing (overall balance, Percent of GDP):",
    "Non-oil primary balance (Percent of GDP):",
    "Gross international reserves (Billions of U.S. dollars):",
    "Nominal GDP (billions of U.S. dollars):",
    "Real per capita GDP, PPP dollars:",
    "Exchange rate (rubles per U.S. dollar, period average):",
    "Brent oil price (U.S. dollars per barrel):",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
    "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)",
    "[Russian Federation and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/RUS/index.htm)",
    "[IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)",
    "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2021/02/08/pr2136-russia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation/index.md",
    "json": "/en/news/articles/2021/02/08/pr2136-russia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2021/02/08/pr2136-russia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2020-article-iv-consultation/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T00:08:49.517Z"
}