{
  "title": "IMF Executive Board Concludes Regional Consultation with West African Economic and Monetary Union",
  "publication": "IMF News, March 2, 2021",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/03/02/pr2156waemu-imf-executive-board-concludes-regional-consultation-with-waemu",
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  "summary": "After almost a decade of strong growth, the WAEMU region is facing a triple crisis impacting health, the economy, and security.",
  "publishDate": "2021-03-02",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Context and main outlook",
      "content": "- After almost a decade of strong growth, the WAEMU region is facing a triple crisis impacting health, the economy, and security.\n- For 2021, growth is projected at 5.4 percent, mostly driven by a rebound in private consumption and private investment, reflecting the relaxation of lockdown constraints and the return of foreign direct investment.\n- A gradual fiscal consolidation is expected to start this year and bring the aggregate fiscal deficit to 3 percent of GDP by 2023.\n- Significant downside risks to the outlook remain; new virus outbreaks or security shocks could derail the recovery and create additional fiscal pressures."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Executive Board assessment and policy guidance",
      "content": "- Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal, noting the triple crises (health, economic, security) and commending early containment and policy support measures.\n- Directors emphasized preparedness to respond to a deterioration in the economic outlook and further propagation of the virus, given high uncertainty and constrained fiscal space.\n- Fiscal policy:\n  - Directors concurred that a gradual return to the aggregate fiscal deficit ceiling of 3 percent of GDP by 2023 would support internal and external stability.\n  - Converging toward the fiscal deficit anchor is essential to maintain an adequate level of external reserves, limit risks of pressures on the regional financial market, and ensure debt sustainability.\n  - Some Directors saw merit in granting flexibility to countries facing security risks.\n  - Consolidation should protect priority social and infrastructure spending and shift to targeted policies.\n  - Enhancing revenue mobilization, public financial management, and fiscal transparency is crucial.\n  - The upcoming reform of the regional fiscal governance framework was noted as an opportunity to anchor the consolidation path.\n- Monetary and financial sector policy:\n  - Directors welcomed BCEAO measures that prevented a tightening of financial conditions.\n  - Monetary policy could be relaxed further if the economic outlook deteriorates, provided an adequate buffer of foreign exchange reserves is maintained.\n  - The loan forbearance framework (set up in March 2020) provided relief to solvent firms and households, but banks should not relax monitoring of customers in difficulty.\n  - Capital shortfalls in the banking system emerging from the crisis would call for targeted and proactive supervisory actions.\n  - Making the bank resolution framework fully operational in 2021 is essential to ensure prompt intervention and resolution of nonviable banks.\n  - Directors urged close monitoring of the microfinance sector and strengthening AML/CFT supervision.\n- Structural policy:\n  - Directors supported authorities’ intent to pursue structural reforms and regional infrastructure investment to enhance competitiveness.\n  - Continued support for the development of regional financial markets was highlighted."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key socioeconomic and macroeconomic indicators (selected)",
      "content": "- Social indicators (latest available):\n  - Nominal GDP (2019, millions of US Dollars): 151,154\n  - GDP per capita (2019, US Dollars): 1,190\n  - Total population (2019, millions): 127\n  - Urban Population (2018, percent of total): 40.3\n  - Life expectancy at birth (2017, years): 60.9\n  - Headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP): 46.3\n  - Undernourishment (percent of population): 15.9\n  - Income share held by highest 10 percent of population: 32.1\n  - Income share held by lowest 20 percent of population: 6.1\n  - Gini index: 40.8\n\n- Selected economic projections and historicals (annual percentage change unless noted):\n  - GDP at constant prices: 2017: 6.4; 2018: 6.5; 2019: 6.6; 2020: 5.9; 2021: 0.3; 2022: 5.4; 2023: 7.4\n  - GDP per capita at constant prices: 3.5; 3.7; 3.0; -2.5; 2.5; 4.4; 3.6; 3.2\n  - Consumer prices (average): 0.8; 0.9; 1.6; -0.1; 1.9; 1.7\n  - Terms of trade: -7.6; -2.2; -0.6; 18.4; 2.3; -5.6; -5.3; -1.8; -1.2\n\n- National accounts (percent of GDP):\n  - Gross national savings: 18.0; 18.6; 14.9; 19.1; 15.2; 19.4; 19.8; 21.3; 21.4\n  - Gross domestic investment: 23.0; 24.3; 20.1; 23.7; 20.9; 24.0; 25.1; 24.9; 25.3; 25.4\n  - Of which: public investment: 7.3; 6.3; 7.1; 6.8\n\n- Money and credit (year-on-year change, end December):\n  - Net foreign assets: 4.5; 2.6; 1.3; 2.1\n  - Net domestic assets: 8.0; 7.6; 3.8; 9.7; 10.1; 8.1; 7.2\n  - Broad money: 8.5; 12.5; 10.2; 10.3; 11.0; 10.4; 6.9; 8.4; 9.2\n  - Credit to the economy: 8.3; 4.2; 5.6; 3.3; 3.4\n\n- Government finance (percent of GDP):\n  - Government total revenue, excl. grants: 15.0; 14.6; 15.4; 15.6; 15.8; 14.7; 15.5; 16.3; 16.5; 16.8\n  - Government expenditure: 20.3; 19.6; 19.7; 19.9; 23.1; 22.3; 21.0; 21.1\n  - Overall fiscal balance, excl. grants: -5.0; -4.4; -4.1; -4.2; -8.4; -6.9; -4.8; -4.3\n  - Overall fiscal balance, incl. grants (commitment basis): -3.6; -3.3; -2.3; -2.4; -5.9; -4.9; -3.8; -3.1; -2.9; -2.8\n\n- External sector (percent of GDP unless otherwise indicated):\n  - Exports of goods and services: 19.3; 19.0; 18.8; 18.5; 17.0; 18.1; 18.7; 20.2\n  - Imports of goods and services: 25.5; 26.4; 24.6; 26.5; 23.4; 24.4; 24.7\n  - Current account, excl. grants: -5.8; -6.5; -8.3; -6.0; -8.7; -6.8; -6.3; -4.7\n  - Current account, incl. grants: -5.4; -5.7; -5.2; -4.0\n\n- Debt indicators:\n  - External public debt: 27.7; 28.2; 30.2; 27.0; 32.9; 33.3; 32.7; 31.5; 30.5; 29.4\n  - Total public debt: 40.4; 43.0; 42.6; 44.8; 41.7; 48.5; 49.6; 49.5; 48.4; 47.6; 46.8"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Memorandum and reserves",
      "content": "- Nominal GDP (billions of CFA francs): 77,736; 83,391; 90,359.6; 88,561; 98,154.8; 90,231; 96,476; 104,539; 114,189; 123,865; 133,761\n- Nominal GDP per capita (US dollars): 1,118; 1,218; 1,279.4; 1,365.5; 1,198; 1,322; 1,403; 1,494; 1,576; 1,652\n- CFA franc per US dollars, average: 581; 555; 585.9\n- Foreign exchange cover ratio: 73.5; 85.3; 88.4\n- Gross international reserves (in months of imports of goods and services): 4.7; 4.3; 5.5; 5.0; 4.6; 3.9\n- Gross international reserves (in millions of US dollars): 12,963; 14,858; 16,514.2; 17,547; 17,360.5; 19,275; 19,497; 19,801; 21,135; 22,276; 22,555\n- Gross international reserves (in percent of broad money): 31.1; 32.2; 34.1; 31.9\n\nIMF Executive Board Concludes Regional Consultation with West African Economic and Monetary Union, Press Release No. 21/56, March 2, 2021.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg\n- The Executive Board\n- PRESS CENTER\n- http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/03/02/pr2156waemu-imf-executive-board-concludes-regional-consultation-with-waemu"
    }
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    "Published: March 2, 2021",
    "After almost a decade of strong growth, the WAEMU region is facing a triple crisis impacting health, the economy, and security.",
    "For 2021, growth is projected at 5.4 percent, mostly driven by a rebound in private consumption and private investment, reflecting the relaxation of lockdown constraints and the return of foreign direct investment.",
    "A gradual fiscal consolidation is expected to start this year and bring the aggregate fiscal deficit to 3 percent of GDP by 2023.",
    "Significant downside risks to the outlook remain; new virus outbreaks or security shocks could derail the recovery and create additional fiscal pressures.",
    "Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal, noting the triple crises (health, economic, security) and commending early containment and policy support measures.",
    "Directors emphasized preparedness to respond to a deterioration in the economic outlook and further propagation of the virus, given high uncertainty and constrained fiscal space.",
    "Fiscal policy:",
    "Monetary and financial sector policy:",
    "Structural policy:",
    "Social indicators (latest available):",
    "Selected economic projections and historicals (annual percentage change unless noted):",
    "National accounts (percent of GDP):",
    "Money and credit (year-on-year change, end December):",
    "Government finance (percent of GDP):",
    "External sector (percent of GDP unless otherwise indicated):",
    "Debt indicators:",
    "Nominal GDP (billions of CFA francs): 77,736; 83,391; 90,359.6; 88,561; 98,154.8; 90,231; 96,476; 104,539; 114,189; 123,865; 133,761",
    "Nominal GDP per capita (US dollars): 1,118; 1,218; 1,279.4; 1,365.5; 1,198; 1,322; 1,403; 1,494; 1,576; 1,652",
    "CFA franc per US dollars, average: 581; 555; 585.9",
    "Foreign exchange cover ratio: 73.5; 85.3; 88.4",
    "Gross international reserves (in months of imports of goods and services): 4.7; 4.3; 5.5; 5.0; 4.6; 3.9",
    "Gross international reserves (in millions of US dollars): 12,963; 14,858; 16,514.2; 17,547; 17,360.5; 19,275; 19,497; 19,801; 21,135; 22,276; 22,555",
    "Gross international reserves (in percent of broad money): 31.1; 32.2; 34.1; 31.9",
    "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg)",
    "[The Executive Board](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/eds.aspx)",
    "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)",
    "[http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm](http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
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