## IMF Staff Completes 2021 Article IV Mission to Thailand

_IMF News, March 15, 2021_

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: March 15, 2021

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### Mission overview and timeline
- Mission period: February 24–March 11.
- End-of-Mission press release date: March 15, 2021.
- IMF Executive Board tentatively scheduled to discuss the Staff Report in May 2021.
- IMF staff team leader: Mr. Lamin Leigh.
- Statement status: Views expressed are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board.

### Recent economic performance and outlook
- Real GDP growth in 2020 contracted by 6.1 percent.
- Quarter-to-quarter real GDP growth: Q3 2020 grew by 6.2 percent; Q4 2020 grew by 1.3 percent.
- Growth is projected to reach 2.6 percent in 2021.
- Recovery expectations:
  - Recovery led by domestic demand.
  - Recovery in tourism expected to be slow for most of 2021 and hinges partly on timely availability and distribution of an effective vaccine.
  - Exports expected to pick up on a stronger recovery in global demand.
- Inflation outlook: Forecast to recover somewhat in 2021, staying near the lower bound of the Bank of Thailand’s 1 to 3 percent target range.
- Uncertainty: Outlook is high and hinges partly on the timely availability and distribution of an effective vaccine.

### Assessment of policy response and macroeconomic stance
- Authorities deployed a multi‑pronged policy package to manage pandemic risks and protect households, businesses, and the financial system, supported by prior ample policy buffers and judicious public finance management.
- Mission recommendation on macroeconomic stance:
  - Continue accommodative policies to support the recovery and reduce scarring.
  - Avoid premature withdrawal of policy support until the recovery is secured.
  - Fiscal expansion should focus on protecting the vulnerable and scaling up public investment in macro-critical and climate resilient projects.
  - Once the recovery is firmly underway, implement a comprehensive consolidation strategy, including tax reforms and expenditure prioritization, to gradually restore pre‑crisis buffers and preserve fiscal sustainability over the medium term.
- Monetary and financial sector recommendations:
  - Provide targeted and more effective financial sector support to hard‑hit firms and households.
  - Complement financial support with additional monetary easing in a data dependent manner.
  - Authorities stand ready to implement additional financial measures, if necessary.
  - Maintain exchange rate flexibility as a shock absorber to volatile capital flows.
  - Use macroprudential policies to address possible financial stability risks.

### Structural and social policy recommendations
- Structural policies should:
  - Limit economic scarring from the pandemic.
  - Strengthen resilience of the economy.
  - Promote inclusiveness.
- Labor market:
  - The pandemic has had a profound impact on the labor market, particularly in contact‑intensive sectors.
  - Introduce active labor market policies in a coordinated fashion across government agencies to upskill workers dislocated by the pandemic.
- Tourism and investment:
  - Implement coordinated and multi‑pronged policies to shift to more sustainable tourism models over the medium term.
  - Promote green investment.

### Engagement and acknowledgments
- The IMF team exchanged views with officials in the government, the Bank of Thailand, other public institutions, and representatives of the private sector.
- The team thanked the authorities and other interlocutors in Bangkok for productive discussions.

*IMF Staff Completes 2021 Article IV Mission to Thailand — Press Release No. 21/67 (March 15, 2021).*

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## References

- [IMF COVID-19 Hub](https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19)
- [Policy Tracker](https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19)
- [Financial Assistance](https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/COVID-Lending-Tracker)
- [Questions & Answers](https://www.imf.org/en/About/FAQ/imf-response-to-covid-19)
- [Thailand and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/THA/index.htm)
- [IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet](https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/imf-surveillance)
- [Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)
- [PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/03/15/pr2167-thailand-imf-staff-completes-2021-article-iv-mission_