{ "title": "Sub-Saharan Africa: Navigating a Long Pandemic", "publication": "IMF News, April 15, 2021", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/04/14/pr21108-sub-saharan-africa-navigating-a-long-pandemic", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/04/14/pr21108-sub-saharan-africa-navigating-a-long-pandemic", "overlayPath": "/en/news/articles/2021/04/14/pr21108-sub-saharan-africa-navigating-a-long-pandemic/index.md", "summary": "Region projected to grow by 3.4 percent in 2021.", "publishDate": "2021-04-15", "sections": [ { "heading": "Near-term economic outlook and projections", "content": "- Region projected to grow by 3.4 percent in 2021.\n- 2020 recorded a ‑1.9 percent contraction—the worst on record.\n- Per capita output not expected to return to 2019 levels until after 2022.\n- In many countries, per capita income will not return to pre-crisis levels until 2025.\n- The number of extreme poor in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to have increased by more than 32 million.\n- Students missed 67 days of instruction, more than four times the level in advanced economies.\n- Sub-Saharan Africa will be the world’s slowest growing region in 2021." }, { "heading": "Key uncertainties and risks", "content": "- Outlook subject to considerable uncertainty related to:\n - the course of the pandemic,\n - access to vaccines,\n - the more challenging external financing environment.\n- Other risks that could jeopardize recovery:\n - access to external financing,\n - political instability,\n - domestic security,\n - climate shocks.\n- Positive contingent factor: faster‑than‑anticipated vaccine supply or rollout could boost near-term prospects." }, { "heading": "Health response and vaccine needs", "content": "- Accelerated access to vaccines is critical to boost health and growth prospects.\n- Required actions:\n - increased spending for vaccine rollouts,\n - stronger local health systems,\n - vigilant containment efforts.\n- Fiscal implication: for most countries, the cost of vaccinating 60 percent of the population will require up to 50 percent increase in health spending, and could exceed 2 percent of GDP in some countries.\n- International community role:\n - ensure vaccine coverage for sub-Saharan Africa as a global public good,\n - avoid restrictions on dissemination of vaccines or medical equipment,\n - fully fund multilateral facilities such as COVAX,\n - redistribute excess doses in wealthy countries quickly." }, { "heading": "Policy priorities and reform agenda", "content": "- Three-pronged effort recommended:\n - bold reforms to boost economic growth and diversification,\n - fiscal measures to boost revenues and contain debt vulnerabilities,\n - significant additional external concessional financing to support reform agenda.\n- Specific reform areas highlighted:\n - digitalization,\n - trade integration,\n - competition,\n - transparency and governance,\n - climate-change mitigation.\n- Fiscal policy focus:\n - mobilize domestic revenues,\n - prioritize essential spending,\n - more effectively manage public debt to create fiscal space for recovery investments and put debt on a sustainable footing.\n- Immediate priority emphasized: save lives through health spending and vaccine procurement/distribution." }, { "heading": "Debt relief, financing support, and estimated funding needs", "content": "- Seventeen countries in the region are at high risk of, or already in, debt distress and will need deeper support.\n- G-20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) impact:\n - delivered breathing space alleviating debt service pressures in the order of $1.8 billion through December 2020,\n - potential for another $4.8 billion in the first half of 2021.\n- For deeper relief, the G-20 Common Framework for Debt Treatment can provide coordinated solutions tailored to each economy’s circumstances.\n- Additional external funding needs to help boost pandemic response, maintain reserves, and accelerate income convergence:\n - sub-Saharan Africa’s low-income countries face about $245 billion over the next 5 years,\n - $425 billion for the whole region over the next 5 years.\n- IMF role and liquidity support:\n - a potential general allocation of special drawing rights from the IMF would help provide liquidity to most vulnerable sub-Saharan African countries.\n- These financing issues will be discussed at the High-Level International Summit on Financing for Africa in May.\n\nPress Release No. 21/108 — Sub-Saharan Africa: Navigating a Long Pandemic (April 15, 2021), IMF Communications Department.\n\n---\n\n\n References\n\n- Abebe Aemro Selassie\n- Press Releases\n- PRESS CENTER\n- Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/04/14/pr21108-sub-saharan-africa-navigating-a-long-pandemic" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/news/articles/2021/04/14/pr21108-sub-saharan-africa-navigating-a-long-pandemic/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/news/articles/2021/04/14/pr21108-sub-saharan-africa-navigating-a-long-pandemic/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/news/articles/2021/04/14/pr21108-sub-saharan-africa-navigating-a-long-pandemic/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: April 15, 2021", "Region projected to grow by 3.4 percent in 2021.", "2020 recorded a ‑1.9 percent contraction—the worst on record.", "Per capita output not expected to return to 2019 levels until after 2022.", "In many countries, per capita income will not return to pre-crisis levels until 2025.", "The number of extreme poor in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to have increased by more than 32 million.", "Students missed 67 days of instruction, more than four times the level in advanced economies.", "Sub-Saharan Africa will be the world’s slowest growing region in 2021.", "Outlook subject to considerable uncertainty related to:", "Other risks that could jeopardize recovery:", "Positive contingent factor: faster‑than‑anticipated vaccine supply or rollout could boost near-term prospects.", "Accelerated access to vaccines is critical to boost health and growth prospects.", "Required actions:", "Fiscal implication: for most countries, the cost of vaccinating 60 percent of the population will require up to 50 percent increase in health spending, and could exceed 2 percent of GDP in some countries.", "International community role:", "Three-pronged effort recommended:", "Specific reform areas highlighted:", "Fiscal policy focus:", "Immediate priority emphasized: save lives through health spending and vaccine procurement/distribution.", "Seventeen countries in the region are at high risk of, or already in, debt distress and will need deeper support.", "G-20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) impact:", "For deeper relief, the G-20 Common Framework for Debt Treatment can provide coordinated solutions tailored to each economy’s circumstances.", "Additional external funding needs to help boost pandemic response, maintain reserves, and accelerate income convergence:", "IMF role and liquidity support:", "These financing issues will be discussed at the High-Level International Summit on Financing for Africa in May.", "[Abebe Aemro Selassie](https://www.imf.org/en/About/senior-officials/Bios/abebe-selassie)", "[Press Releases](https://www.imf.org/en/news/searchnews)", "[PRESS CENTER](http://presscenter.imf.org/)", "[Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/SSA/Issues/2021/04/15/regional-economic-outlook-for-sub-saharan-africa-april-2021)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/news/articles/2021/04/14/pr21108-sub-saharan-africa-navigating-a-long-pandemic/index.md", "json": "/en/news/articles/2021/04/14/pr21108-sub-saharan-africa-navigating-a-long-pandemic/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/news/articles/2021/04/14/pr21108-sub-saharan-africa-navigating-a-long-pandemic/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-26T00:19:23.380Z" }